Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Report: Braelon Allen, James Cook, MarShawn Lloyd and Kendre Miller

The NFL season starts in just two weeks! This is peak drafting season, so it’s more important than ever to be locked in on any changes in ADP. With that in mind, today I will be looking at the biggest movers in running back ADP over the last week. I’ll break down why each player might be moving and whether they are still a good pick at their new price — should you buy the dip on fallers or join the crowd on risers?

As always, all ADP data is found using FantasySP’s ADP Tool, which automatically tracks each player’s trend over the last seven days.

Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Risers

Braelon Allen, New York Jets (-5.17)

This trend is unsurprising, as everything is heading in the right direction for the fourth-round rookie out of Wisconsin. He has performed well in the preseason, generated highlights in training camp, and been officially announced as the Jets’ RB2 behind Breece Hall. He’s even getting rave reviews from Robert Saleh.

However, it’s a bit difficult to answer the question of whether Allen is worth his new draft price of RB58 overall. If you’re looking for a player who could contribute without relying on injury, I don’t think Allen is a good pick. Even that late in the draft, there are still running backs available who have realistic paths to volume. Guys like Tyrone Tracy, Alexander Mattison and Justice Hill are all being drafted after Allen’s new ADP; each of them are more likely to carve out significant roles than Allen is to steal enough touches from Breece Hall to be fantasy-relevant.

However, if you’re looking for a handcuff, Allen is a very good option. If Hall were to go down, the rookie could immediately step into a workhorse role on what many are projecting to be a much-improved offense. That alone makes him worth drafting and stashing on your bench in league formats where you have the space to hold a non-contributor.  

James Cook, Buffalo Bills (-1.35)

Obviously, Cook’s rise of just over one position in ADP isn’t as big as Allen’s. But Cook is actually the fastest-rising RB in terms of percentage change in ADP over the last week. After all, he is being drafted as the RB14 in the third round, where one slot in ADP can make a huge difference.

With that said, there’s no obvious reason why Cook is moving up. Fellow Buffalo RB Ray Davis is also one of this week’s big winners, so it’s not because managers have changed their minds about Cook’s competition. Maybe the injury to Curtis Samuel, who has been known to handle carries out of the backfield, has managers feeling bullish on Cook? Or maybe he’s rising up just because.

Even if we don’t know why it’s happening, we can analyze whether Cook’s rise in ADP is reasonable or makes him overvalued. For me, Cook’s new 33.5 overall ADP is a fair price to pay. Cook is an efficient runner, having posted 0.45 yards over expected per carry in 2023.

He also catches some passes, averaging over three targets a game. He also has very negligible competition for touches (aside from Josh Allen stealing all the goal-line TDs, which is a real issue with his profile). Put it all together, and he’s right at home as the RB14, a high-end RB2.

Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Fallers

MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers (+6.95)

Lloyd was actually injured nearly two full weeks ago, but he is still not done falling. Fantasy managers were perhaps hoping for Lloyd’s hamstring injury to come with a similar prognosis to Jamhyr Gibbs, leaving him potentially available in Week 1.

Instead, our most recent update on Lloyd’s injury was not at at all promising, and he is looking likely to miss some time to start the season. The rookie is now down 40 full picks from his peak ADP, having fallen all the way to RB52 … and he’s probably not done.

However, depending on where his ADP eventually lands, I don’t hate the idea of buying the dip on Lloyd. All the same things that made him an intriguing fantasy pick are still true: He is a potentially talented rusher with receiving ability, Matt LaFleur has a history of deploying split backfields, and Josh Jacobs was very inefficient last season.

Especially as his ADP is falling well into the double-digit rounds, Lloyd is certainly not being drafted to start in Week 1. Especially in leagues with an IR slot that can hold players listed as “Out,” drafting Lloyd late could pay huge dividends by the end of the season.

Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints (+5.91)

Like Lloyd, Miller has fallen around half a round in ADP over the last week. Like Lloyd, Miller is down approximately 40 spots in ADP from his peak and is now being drafted in the 15th round. And, like Lloyd, Miller’s fall is injury related. After missing much of his rookie season with a variety of injuries, the sophomore RB is now dealing with another hamstring issue.

However, that is where the similarities end, as I am not going to be buying the dip on Miller. For one, we’ve already seen Miller in the NFL, and he certainly wasn’t fantasy-relevant even when healthy last year, averaging 4.8 half-PPR points per game. And, more importantly, the vibes are bad. 

When Miller was initially injured (on the first day of camp), head coach Dennis Allen expressed frustration: “Look, that’s a player that’s gonna have to figure out how to stay healthy, cause it’s hard to make the team when you’re in the training room all the time.”

Allen doubled down on those comments just yesterday, explaining that Miller has been unable to learn the team’s offense thanks to his injury woes. Given that running back is a position that depends hugely on volume, which is determined by coaches, I can’t recommend drafting a guy whose head coach seems to hate him, no matter how far his ADP falls.