Fantasy Football Week 1 Start/Sit Decisions: Najee Harris vs. Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Jerome Ford vs. Javonte Williams vs. Raheem Mostert

Ted breaks down some of the hottest fantasy football Start/Sit questions heading into Week 1.

Football is back!! However, the first Sunday of the year also brings the first round of tough fantasy football start/sit decisions. That's where the FantasySP Fantasy Football Start/Sit Tool comes in handy. This tool allows you to plug in any pair of players and see not just a projection of their Week 1 output but also how other fantasy managers are making the same decision. The wisdom of crowds is a real thing, so trusting what thousands of other managers are doing is a great way to make your toughest decisions.

The Start/Sit Tool also shows some of the top trending tough decisions for each week, and this week, there are a lot of tough choices at the running back position. Let's take a deeper dive into some of the top RB2s that managers are deciding between. 

Fantasy Football Start/Sit

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Najee Harris

These two guys are the heroes of this article, so it makes perfect sense to start by pitting them against one another. According to the Start/Sit Tool, fantasy managers are split very evenly between these two backs: 23.75% of managers with both players on their rosters are starting Stevenson over Najee, while 20% are going the other way. A further 27.5% of managers are starting both, leaving a lucky 28.75% of managers who can afford to bench both.

Both backs have some positives and negatives in their Week 1 outlook. Stevenson is likely to dominate touches for the Patriots, while Harris will be splitting time with Jaylen Warren. However, even though the Steelers' offense is not going to be great (especially with Justin Fields under center), the Patriots' offense might be the worst in the league. It's very hard for running backs to produce quality fantasy numbers on truly terrible offenses, which is the situation Stevenson finds himself in. Things could go especially south for Stevenson if Antonio Gibson cuts into the receiving workload that he has previously relied upon to find fantasy success.

With that in mind, I'm going to go against the crowd and back Harris in this choice. The Steelers under Arthur Smith should lean on the running game, providing enough volume for Harris (whose efficiency is underrated, by the way) to hopefully return value even alongside Warren.

Start: Harris

Najee Harris vs. Jerome Ford

Next up, Harris squares off against a fellow AFC North back in Jerome Ford. Ford's situation is very similar to Stevenson's. He should see the majority of the work in the Browns' backfield, but it's hard to predict much efficiency for the Browns' offense against a tough Dallas defense. 

However, where fantasy managers slightly preferred Stevenson to Najee, they are backing the Steeler in this pairing. When choosing between Harris and Ford, 27.8% of managers are picking Harris compared to 20.1% for Ford.

This is an interesting choice, as I would actually argue that Ford's situation, at least for Week 1, is better than Stevenson's. D'Onta Foreman is a threat to his workload, but he is more likely to steal early-down work than the valuable receiving touches that Gibson could claim in New England. At the same time, the Browns' Week 1 total is a full five points higher than the Patriots', the lowest of the week at a measly 15.5. 

With all that said, I still prefer Harris in this battle. He should be more efficient than Ford and has a better chance to end up in the end zone. 

Start: Harris

Najee Harris vs. Javonte Williams

Here, we reach Harris' final test of the day. And this is one where fantasy managers are even more willing to back the third-year player. When choosing between Harris and Williams, managers are picking Harris more than twice as often (35.6% vs. 15.1%). However, 15% is still a non-negligible amount of support for Williams, so let's dive into this a bit deeper. 

Williams, like just about every fantasy RB2 in the league, does not have 100% control of his backfield. Explosive sophomore Jaleel McLaughlin will certainly command some touches, and rookie Audric Estime may also be involved. However, there should be plenty of valuable touches to go around. Sean Payton teams are notorious for racking up targets to running backs; in 2023, Broncos running backs combined for a league-leading 32.1% target share, over 5% clear of the second-place team. With Samaje Perine now in Kansas City, Williams should be one of the league leaders in targets this season. 

With that in mind, I'm going to make a surprising choice here and back Williams ... but with a condition. I would only start Willaims in Full PPR; in any other format, start Najee. Normally, the difference between scoring formats is negligible, especially on a week-to-week basis but Williams may see enough targets to be an exception. 

Start (PPR): Williams

Start (Half-PPR, Standard): Harris

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Jerome Ford

We've already discussed both of these backs, but I gave the edge to Harris over both of them. Interestingly, although Stevenson performed better against Harris, Ford actually wins the head-to-head: 38.3% of managers are starting him over Stevenson, compared to 30.1% the other way. 

I think this is the right call. Although Stevenson's ADP was higher, Ford's ADP was depressed by the eventual return of Nick Chubb. For now, Chubb is inactive, leaving Ford in a similar situation to Stevenson but on a less terrible team. It may feel wrong to start a late-round pick over a player you selected much earlier, but that's the decision to make this week. 

Start: Ford

Raheem Mostert vs. Rhamondre Stevenson

We have a new face in this final entry, as Raheem Mostert joins the fray. On some level, it's crazy that Mostert is even in these conversations. After all, he finished 2023 as the RB2 overall. He's in the same situation this season, so why is he being compared to fantasy RB2s? 

Well, fantasy managers are worried that Mostert's 2023 season (and his 18 rushing touchdowns) will not repeat itself. Mostert is 32 years old, and many are projecting that sophomore De'Von Achane will overtake him as the lead back in this Miami offense. Heading into Week 1, managers clearly prefer Stevenson, starting him 28.6% of time compared to just 20.1% for Mostert. 

However, I disagree. Even if Achane takes the lead role, this Miami offense proved last season that it can support two very productive fantasy RBs. It's better to have a small piece of Miami's dynamic offense than a large piece of whatever the Patriots are doing. And Mostert's ADP was depressed by injury concerns, but he's not hurt for now. Until he is or we see that his role is massively reduced, he's still an explosive back with huge TD equity on the league's most explosive offense — get him in your lineups. 

Start: Mostert

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