Thursday Night Football Week 3: New England Patriots @ New York Jets NFL Best Bets and Top Props
Thursday Night Football is almost here and we're going to break it down for you so you can win some money.
It's time for our third week of Thursday Night Football and we have another AFC East rivalry game coming up. After a spectacular Week 1, when we hit on every single bet, we struggled last week in a game that went sideways in a hurry and was marred by major injuries.
This week the New England Patriots will head on the road to take on the New York Jets. Both teams enter the week with a 1-1 record looking to pull ahead into second place in the division. To a surprise to many, you can make a strong case that the Pats have looked better than the Jets so far this season. It doesn't surprise us that much, but once again a lot of experts couldn't help but fall victim to the Jets offseason hype as they so often do for reasons we will never understand.
NFL Best Bets: Week 3
Most people pegged the Patriots to be one of, if not the worst, team in the league this season. At FantasySP, we told you that the Pats would be a competitive well-coached team who was going to run the ball and play defense. That's a recipe for being a tough team even if you lack talent.
We also told you not to believe in an aging 40-year-old quarterback coming off a major leg injury who wasn't all that good the last time he was actually healthy. This is a game that could go either way, but it's much more evenly matched than most were projecting in August.
The Patriots' passing attack is anemic. It's led by a below-average quarterback with maybe the worst weapons in the league to throw to. There is no reason to believe that they will be putting up much production at all. However, the Jets have been horrible against the run this season and the Pats' have been pounding Rhamondre Stevenson early and often with plenty of success. We have no doubt that will be the offensive game plan for the Pats in this one and we don't see why it wouldn't be successful again this week.
The Jets' offense has struggled to get going. The combination of Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett has proven to be slow, uncreative and generally lacking. The line hasn't done a good job blocking for Breece Hall and Rodgers has looked every bit of 40 years old.
Odds are they are going to struggle to move the ball down the field consistently against the Pats. New England will look to lock their excellent young cornerback Christian Gonzalez on the Jets' only good pass catcher Garrett Wilson, who has struggled to get it going so far this year with Rodgers under center.
This should be a low-scoring game with whoever wins the turnover battle and forces negative plays on defense likely coming away with the victory. Fantasy options will be limited and exciting offense will be at a minimum, but we could get a hard-nosed defensive battle in what should be a tight game.
The Picks
Spread: New England Patriots +6.5 (-112)
Over/Under: Under 38.5 (-108)
Moneyline: New England Patriots (+230)
Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: Rhamondre Stevenson, 60+ Rushing Yards (-160)
We fully expect Stevenson to run through, over and around the Jets rush defense all night. He should see more than 20 carries against a Jets' rush defense that has looked really bad so far this season. You could even move that yardage total up to win more money and we wouldn't have any issue with it.
Prop #2: Aaron Rodgers, Under 225.5 Passing Yards (-155)
Through two games, Rodgers hasn't been able to top 176 passing yards and you could make a strong case that this is the best pass defense he'll face to this point. There is nothing that suggests he'll be able to top this mark. Even in his last full season in 2022 prior to his injury, he only averaged 217 passing yards per game and topped this target in only eight of 17 games. Bet against Rodgers until he gives you a reason not to because Vegas hasn't quite accepted that he's washed yet.
Prop #3: Joey Slye, Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-115)
This will be a game of field goals and two teams who will struggle to get into the end zone. You can go with either kicker for this prop, Slye just gave us better odds to win more money. In a game like this, the kickers score most of the points.
