Week 4 Fantasy Football FAAB Bid Numbers: How to Handle Sam Darnold, Bucky Irving, Jauan Jennings and More
FAAB waiver wire recommendations for the hottest free agents heading into Week 4 of the NFL season.
In the land of free agent auction budgets (FAAB), fantasy owners must be strategic in how they use their available funds. Some prefer to hoard the money until a big-time waiver addition arises, and others like to use small bids throughout the season to fill holes and hope for upside.
There’s no right way to do it; it all depends on your roster and what happens throughout the season, which is totally unpredictable. It would be great to pick up the next Puka Nacua when he breaks out in Week 10, but you might wait that long and never have a guy reach that level as a free agent. Risk is always involved.
Let’s look at some of the hottest names on the waiver wire for Week 4 and what reasonable bids might look like in FAAB leagues. A few notes before we start:
- All numbers are based on a $100 budget, so adjust accordingly
- Conservative bid numbers are for guys you would like to have on your team but wouldn’t be upset to miss out on. These players would be under consideration to start some weeks.
- High-end bids are for guys you hope would start most weeks or at least would be considered as strong options. They are players you really want on your roster.
- Desperation bids are the numbers I would put down if I needed to fill a weekly starting spot in my lineup. This would be like losing your quarterback for the year and seeing someone like Sam Darnold excel as a free agent in your really deep league.
- I picked up a tip this offseason that I really like: Most owners are going to bid $5, $10, $20, etc., so you can increase your chance of winning an auction by bidding $6, $11, $21, etc. The “Price is Right Method” isn’t just the best name for this strategy, it’s the only name. Prices will be listed below accordingly.
Quarterback
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
He was here last week, so we’ll keep it short: Darnold joined one of the most pass-happy teams in the league, and though he hasn’t had big volume, Darnold has shown great efficiency as his team has played with leads.
Darnold will be an option on the right weeks but probably will struggle at times when matched up with tougher defenses, putting him at the precipice of the top 10.
Conservative Bid: $0-1
High-end Bid: $2
Desperation Bid: $3
Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers keep winning, now sitting at 3-0 despite the offense leaving much to be desired. Fields had his best passing day of the season in Week 3 (245 yards, one touchdown and one interception), though his running was by far the worst (six yards on six carries, with a touchdown saving the performance).
That probably says more about the Chargers than Fields, but it’s hard to argue with Pittsburgh’s positioning right now with Fields under center. Owners should be aware that Fields will regularly throw for under 200 yards, though.
His best fantasy asset is his running: Fields is one of the best running quarterbacks ever. Anyone picking him up as a fantasy option is counting on the ground work to carry his performance with extra passing just a cherry on top.
Paying up for Fields isn’t a good idea unless you’re without a QB in a deep league. He will be a middling player, though his ceiling is nice due to the rushing production.
Conservative Bid: $0
High-end Bid: $1-2
Desperation Bid: $3
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Smith has back-to-back games with over 285 yards and a touchdown, though he threw two interceptions in Week 3 and took three sacks in each of those past two. Smith also doesn’t do a lot of running, leaving his fantasy performance dependent on the passing game.
That can be scary with an inconsistent fantasy quarterback, leaving a low floor on days against tough defenses. Smith is a streamer whose fantasy value ebbs and flows depending on his opponent, not someone to count on as a weekly starter.
As such owners shouldn’t pay for Geno unless they are super desperate. You can find production on the free agent market through streaming that will match Smith.
Conservative Bid: $0
High-end Bid: $1
Desperation Bid: $2
Running Back
Braelon Allen, New York Jets
Allen is getting a ton of love, and he has put up some nice stats, but this is still a guy who is clearly second to Breece Hall. Some look at Week 3 as proof that this is becoming something of a timeshare (16 carries for Hall, 11 for Allen); the Jets dominated the Patriots, though, and surely felt good about sparing their top back unnecessary carries.
Allen is worth a spot on a roster, but he’s probably not a real fantasy option most weeks as long as Hall is healthy. Someone will probably overpay for him, but Allen will leave you disappointed if you’re hoping for a new regular contributor.
Conservative Bid: $1-3
High-end Bid: $6
Desperation Bid: $8-11
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Irving has also been here before, but I finally believe. He has been outperforming Rachaad White on a regular basis, and this team is likely to shovel more work toward the rookie unless there’s a major change in production.
Irving doesn’t do a ton in the pass game (White has done really well in that area), but he has been efficient as a runner and looked like the better back. Irving is averaging 6.2 yards per carry on 25 attempts; White is at 2.1 on 31 carries.
Irving could take over the bulk of the carries as soon as this week if that type of deficit in production continues, and he’s worth getting on your team as a player under flex consideration now but possibly moving into RB2 territory if his role keeps expanding.
Conservative Bid: $6-8
High-end Bid: $11-13
Desperation Bid: $16-18
Wide Receiver
Tutu Atwell, Los Angeles Rams
Injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp made it clear that at least one receiver in LA would be picking up a lot of targets, but the trick was guessing who that was going to be. Demarcus Robinson was the hot name, but he was held to just one reception for 32 yards.
Atwell emerged as the top option, catching four passes for 93 yards. Targets were close, as Atwell and Colby Parkinson had five, while Robinson and Tyler Johnson each had four, so it’s likely that the biggest producer will change game to game depending on luck and circumstance.
It’s dangerous to grab Atwell assuming he’ll produce like a WR1. Robinson has the same seven receptions that Atwell does on the season, and Johnson tops them both with 10. Any of the three are fine to have on your roster as WR3/4/flex options to consider, but Atwell isn’t a 15-point-per-week player.
Conservative Bid: $1
High-end Bid: $2-3
Desperation Bid: $6
Jahan Dotson, Philadelphia Eagles
This is the same as the Rams situation, with the top two receivers dealing with injury, possibly leaving high-value targets up for grabs. A.J. Brown has missed each of the past two weeks, and while he could return in Week 4, that’s uncertain.
DeVonta Smith suffered a concussion in Week 3, so he’s also questionable for the upcoming game. If one or both star receivers miss the game, less heralded guys will be counted on to step up.
Parris Campbell, Johnny Wilson, and Britain Covey could all be mentioned as well, but none has the pedigree of Dotson, a first-round pick in 2022. No one has stood out with Brown out of the lineup.
Covey caught six passes in Week 2 but gained just 23 yards; he caught just one pass in Week 3. No one else from the group listed above had more than three targets in either game.
I’m not excited about grabbing anyone here, but Dotson is the most appealing. He’s surely still adapting after joining the team late in the preseason and will get more comfortable, leading to more targets. He’s still not a player I’m expecting much from until we see it, though.
Conservative Bid: $0
High-end Bid: $1-2
Desperation Bid: $3
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers
I mentioned Jennings as my favorite late-week streamer in Week 3, expecting he could get plenty of work with Deebo Samuel Sr. out and George Kittle ailing (and eventually ruled out). He came through in a big way: 11 receptions, 175 yards and three touchdowns.
While he won’t continue at that pace, Jennings is set up to contribute until Samuel makes it back. That’s not worth blowing your whole budget, but we just saw Jennings’ upside; he could be a WR3/4 type depending on the health of his teammates.
Someone is likely going to overpay for Jennings this week; I recommend you’re not that person. Assuming the 49ers get back to something like full strength, Jennings would lose most of his fantasy value, being only a super deep option.
Something in the desperation bid range (or higher) is likely going to come in for most leagues.
Conservative Bid: $3-6
High-end Bid: $7-8
Desperation Bid: $11-12
Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
A week after scoring two touchdowns (the same as the number he caught all last season), Johnston found his way back to the end zone in Week 3. He’s tied for the team lead in receptions (10, with rookie Ladd McConkey) and leads LA in receiving yards (133) and touchdowns (three).
It’s not a surprise to see Johnston lead a team that shed a lot of receiving talent this offseason: he was a first-round pick last year, and no matter how anonymous he was as a rookie, he’s one season removed from that high stature.
The level of production isn’t enough for a guaranteed fantasy starter spot, though, even if it does lead the Chargers. LA has had a lot of success running the ball and will continue leaning that way when they can, and Justin Herbert is ailing and might miss time.
Johnston is worthy of a roster spot, but he’s also a boom-or-bust player who should only be started in the right situations.
Conservative Bid: $0-1
High-end Bid: $3-6
Desperation Bid: $8-11
Allen Lazard, New York Jets
Maybe all Lazard needs is his friend Aaron Rodgers under center. Then he’s ready to be a big-time contributor. Lazard has three touchdowns to lead the team and only two less receiving yards than Garrett Wilson for the top number in that category.
The Jets added Mike Williams to be their second receiver; Lazard doesn’t care, operating like Rodgers’ top option at times (not really, but you get it). I’m not buying Lazard continuing to score a touchdown per week, and he’s a WR3/4/flex guy to consider at best.
Conservative Bid: $0
High-end Bid: $1
Desperation Bid: $2
Tight End
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets
I don’t like Conklin as a regular contributor, but there is a history of tight ends putting up high-end stats with Aaron Rodgers. That didn’t show up in the first two games, when Conklin combined for two catches and 16 yards, but he went off in Week 3 for 93 yards on five receptions.
Week 4 features a good matchup against the Broncos, the team that was the worst against fantasy tight ends last season and just allowed seven catches and 47 yards to Cade Otton. Conklin shouldn’t be any more than a low-end streamer unless you’re truly desperate in a deep league.
