Overvalued Week 4 Fantasy Football FAAB Players: Chuba Hubbard, Jalen Nailor, Jauan Jennings and More

Last week, fantasy football owners really enjoyed reading about overvalued waiver wire players in FAAB leagues, so we’re back with another edition.

FantasySP’s Daniel Hepner hit on a lot of the best waiver wire targets in his FAAB story from earlier, and now I’m going to look at some Predictive FAAB totals in the FSP Fantasy Assistant to see who is being overvalued.

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Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard and Roschon Johnson are a couple RBs who could be overvalued by fantasy football owners.

Hubbard had his best game in week 3 as Carolina looked like a competent offense for the first time behind Andy Dalton. Hubbard had six touches in week 1 and then 14 in week 2 before a whopping 26 in week 3.

There’s a couple things working against Hubbard. For one, we are talking about just one good fantasy showing in three tries - I think it’s more likely the Panthers play closer to what they showed in weeks 1 and 2 then the offense that was on display in week 3. 

If the Panthers are indeed a better offense behind Dalton, then the second thing working against Hubbard would be the return of rookie Jonathon Brooks. Brooks was a round 2 pick in the 2024 draft and should step into the lead back role when he’s ready to go. If the Panthers are indeed competitive, then Brooks should get the chance to serve as the team’s top back this season.

Spending too much on a player who might only have a game or two more of starting potential is a poor choice. I could see spending $1 or $2 on him, but anything more than that is a desperation move. I’d rather go after a player like Bucky Irving, Braelon Allen or even Johnson.

Johnson didn’t get a single touch in weeks 1 or 2, but then got 12 in week 3. That was only three less touches than D'Andre Swift, who has been terrible this season. With the Bears’ offense struggling, it’d be surprising if they didn’t give Johnson a chance to be the lead back.

Johnson showed flashes of good play as a rookie in 2023, so it was a bit surprising that the Bears went out and signed Swift. Anyways, the Bears have an investment in Johnson and I’m sure they will test it out over the next few weeks to see if they have something with him.

We’re mostly just speculating on what the Bears will do though, and that makes him a risky player to spend some FAAB on. There’s some upside if he eventually is the lead back for Chicago, but spending more than $6 or $7 seems pretty desperate. Feel free to spend a little on a player like Johnson with some upside, but also don’t throw 10% or more of your remaining budget on him.

Wide Receivers

Jalen Nailor and Jauan Jennings are two wide receivers who are going to be overvalued this week.

Jennings is likely to be more overvalued after his monster week 3 showing. I think he’s a great addition for a couple weeks, but once the Niners get closer to full health, Jennings will likely go back to his reserve role and be a non-factor in standard fantasy leagues.

Hepner suggested a $3-6 conservative bid for Jennings, a $7-8 high-end bid and then an $11-12 desperation bid. I’d be pretty comfortable anywhere from $3-8 depending on how much you need a receiver for the next couple weeks. Anything more than that seems like a poor move.

The couple bids in the FSP system have fantasy owners spending 10% of their budget on Jennings. Since we’re already a couple weeks into the season, that’s a big chunk of your remaining FAAB for a player who might be startable for just one more week (if that). Assess your team situation, and if you are able to tread water for a couple more weeks, don’t break the bank on Jennings.

Nailor has been great despite not getting a ton of targets. He’s up to 106 yards and three touchdowns on just seven catches and nine targets. 

Those numbers should tell you a lot of the story. Those numbers aren’t very sustainable, and Nailor has been putting those numbers up with Jordan Addison out with an injury. Addison will return at some point, and Nailor will go back to being a No. 3 option.

So spending more than $5 on Nailor is already too much in my opinion. Yet there’s bids in to spend up to 13% of a fantasy team’s budget on Nailor. That’s simply not a wise move.

Save your money for a breakout star on a team without any injured players, or go after guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Wan'Dale Robinson this week instead.

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold is the last player I want to talk about this week. He’s been great through three weeks, but really, the numbers are kind of deceiving. 

Darnold has eight touchdown passes, but only 657 passing yards. Some of his passing stats were hindered by the Vikings blowing out the Texans in week 3, but under 220 passing yards per game in not exactly elite fantasy QB play.

Hepner and I see things pretty similarly with Darnold - he’s started great, but is bound to fall back to earth. He’s a streaming option, but not a weekly starter. Hepner said a $3 bid was already a desperation move for Darnold, yet there’s bids out there to spend a good chunk of team’s remaining FAAB on him.

I get the move a bit more in a deeper format, but based on how I see Darnold playing the rest of the season, I still wouldn’t spend over 5% of my remaining budget on him, no matter how desperate I was. I’d rather save my money and stream QBs for free or a buck and save my money for RBs, WRs and TEs instead.