Overvalued Week 5 Fantasy Football FAAB Players: Dontayvion Wicks, Justin Fields and Tucker Kraft

Identifying waiver wire options who are being overvalued with high bid budget figures in FAAB setups.

It’s time for another overvalued FAAB story, where we identify some waiver wire targets who are being valued too highly in FAAB leagues.

FantasySP’s Daniel Hepner wrote about a lot of the best waiver wire targets in his FAAB story, and now I’m going to look at some Predictive FAAB totals in the FSP Fantasy Assistant to see who is being overvalued.

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Wide Receivers

Dontayvion Wicks is a big-time waiver wire target after erupting in week 4. He had 78 yards and two touchdowns on five catches and 13 targets.

All those numbers look great, but when you dig into the box score more, you see Green Bay was playing from behind all game, and the offense abandoned the run and threw a whopping 54 times. That’s not how the Packers’ offense wants to operate, and is very unlikely to happen more than once or twice in a given season.

For the season, Wicks had just 104 yards on eight catches and 22 targets, with a third score mixed in. He’s struggled with drops, but is certainly playing enough to be a decent fantasy asset.

Wicks’ best game was in week 4, and that was after Christian Watson left the game with an injury. Watson is expected to miss at least a week, which sets things up nicely for Wicks, but at the same time, the offense still has Jayden Reed (who has established himself as the clear No. 1 wideout), Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave, not to mention running back Josh Jacobs. That’s a lot of mouths to feed, and outside Reed, no other offensive player has consistently put up big fantasy numbers this season. 

In Hepner’s story, he suggested a conservative FAAB bid of $0 for Wicks, a high-end bid of $1-3 and a desperation bid of $4-6. He suggested he has more value in deeper leagues, which I agree with.

Looking at some of the Predictive FAAB data inside the Fantasy Assistant, the average bid for Wicks is 10% of a fantasy owner’s budget. There were two bids each for Wicks in 10- and 12-team leagues. Most of the bid figures are respectable, with a 6% in both leagues and a 4% bid in a 12-team league, but a 23% bid in a 10-team league inflates the overall bid percentage.

I agree with Hepner’s bid figures listed above, which makes every bid in the desperation category. A $4-6 bid in a 12-team league is respectable in my eyes, but spending that much on him in a 10-team league is probably already too much, and anything more than that in any-size league is a waste of FAAB.

Even if Wicks can carve out a weekly offensive role for the rest of the season, having to deal with several other playmakers inside the same offense is going to make his fantasy production inconsistent. 

I’d rather save my FAAB and throw a couple bucks at Josh Downs, Xavier Legette, Jordan Whittington, Wan'Dale Robinson or Tutu Atwell. A free move could get you Doubs, who has just as good a chance to excel in the Packers’ offense as Wicks.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields is a name I knew would appear in this story after his strong week 4 showing. 

He completed 22 of his 34 passes for 312 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions in week 4. Fields added 55 rushing yards and two scores on 10 carries.

It was easily his best performance of the season, but not a very sustainable one. In the one-week wonder story, which also includes Wicks and the tight end we’ll cover to end this story, I note how the Steelers lost this week and do not want that kind of gameplan going forward. 

Fields has solid fantasy value because of his rushing ability, but to expect more than even 200 passing yards in a game is not wise. I think a good game for Fields would be around 200 total yards and a couple touchdowns. He still turns the ball over a good amount, which also decreases his fantasy value.

Hepner listed a conservative bid for Fields being free, a high-end bid being $1 and a desperation bid being $2. I think those are great numbers, but might go as high as $3 for a desperation bid still.

So far, FantasySP data has a couple 12-team bids for Fields. One is at 15% and the other is 16%.

That’s simply far too much for a fantasy player like Fields, and those leagues aren’t large enough to justify the move. He hasn’t shown enough fantasy consistency over his career to expect him to play like he did in week 4 every week, and I’m not about to blow my budget apart to get a player who is on the start/sit line every week.

Target the much cheaper Sam Darnold, Geno Smith or even Trevor Lawrence instead. I’d rather play matchups with cheap or free waiver QBs than pour a bunch of money into a single player around the same fantasy value. 

Don’t let a bid for Fields ruin the rest of your fantasy football season.

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft is the last player I’m going to discuss today.

In the Packers’ pass-happy attack in week 4, Kraft had six catches for 53 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He also lost a fumble in the contest.

For the season, Kraft has uninspiring numbers, with just 130 yards, the touchdown, 12 catches and 17 targets (including week 4). He had either two or three targets in the first three games. With Jordan Love around, Kraft had three targets in week 1 before getting his nine last week.

He’s played the most offensive snaps of any Green Bay pass catcher, which is a fantastic thing, but Kraft hasn’t delivered enough to spend a lot of FAAB on. Sure, he could be more involved with Watson out of the mix, but there’s still Reed, Wicks, Doubs, Jacobs and Musgrave to contend with. The Pack aren’t going to keep all those guys consistently involved in a “normal” NFL game. So while I understand the upside of Kraft and that his week 4 performance was a step in the right direction, I need more proof before I can go all in on a player.

Hepner also had Kraft at a $0 conservative bid, a $1 high-end bid and a $2 desperation bid. Like Wicks, Kraft has more appeal in deeper leagues, but even then, anything over $2 or $3 seems like too much already.

There’s three bids in for Kraft right now, with each coming in a 12-team league. One bid is a respectable 1%, while another is 6% and the final one is 10%. I get wanting to land a player who is coming off a strong showing, and that the fantasy TE position is pretty weak, but there’s got to be some cheaper options out there (who might have as much fantasy value as Kraft moving forward).

Just looking at some of the other tight ends in the Predictive FAAB section, I’d take a chance on a cheaper Zach Ertz or Colby Parkinson, or spend a little bit on Pat Freiermuth (if he’s still available). 

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