Future Stars: Analyzing Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. in Dynasty Fantasy Football

Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. have averaged the most receiving yards per game amongst rookie wide receivers (yes, that includes Marvin Harrison Jr.) and it got me thinking about how good each wideout could be in the future.

So, this week’s dynasty article will be another profile, but this time on two players. We’ll look at their season stats and then offer up fantasy outlooks for the remainder of the season and their entire careers.

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Season Stats

Nabers has 35 receptions on 52 targets this season. His receptions have led to 386 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He’s caught four of his six red zone targets and leads the Giants’ pass catchers with 244 snaps played.

He has at least 66 receiving yards and five receptions in every game, and now has two games over 10 catches and 100 yards. Nabers has been targeted at least seven times in every game, and has at least 12 targets over the past three weeks.

Thomas leads the Jaguars with 275 receiving yards and two touchdowns despite playing the third-most snaps (181) among the pass catchers. He’s caught 17 of his 26 targets and both of his red zone looks.

After four targets in weeks 1 and 2, Thomas got nine in weeks 3 and 4. He’s had at least 47 receiving yards in each game, with a season high of 94. Thomas has at least two catches in every game, and four or more in three contests. Along with his 86 yards and a score in week 4, he also got a 13-yard run, showing the team is starting to get him involved in more ways.

Season Fantasy Outlooks

Nabers has been a fantasy starter in all formats since week 1, and his play so far has only made fantasy owners more confident in playing him. There might be weeks where he struggles from a yardage standpoint, but that’s more likely going to be a Daniel Jones problem. Nabers high target totals are exactly what you are hoping for for a fantasy wideout, and as the clear No. 1 option on the Giants’ offense, there’s no reason to expect Nabers to ever turn in a poor fantasy showing.

The only real cause for concern right now is that Nabers suffered a concussion in the team’s week 4 game. But because that game was on Thursday, he’s got a much better chance at suiting up in week 5. The only real thing that might ever slow Nabers, aside from poor quarterback play on his team, is having to deal with injuries over his career.

Thomas’ outlook for the remainder of the season isn’t quite as bright. He’s starting to match the snaps that Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk are playing, but those are also guys who can take away targets and production. Throw in the fact that tight end Evan Engram has been out since week 1, and there’s reason to expect some inconsistencies in Thomas’ fantasy performances over the rest of the season.

But, there’s a clear connection between Thomas and quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and it should only improve as the season progresses. Thomas has fared better than Davis by a long shot, and even after a couple big games, Thomas is still doing more than/or matching Kirk. All Thomas has to do now is prove he can produce when Engram rejoins the mix and you have another weekly starter on your hands. I already think Thomas should be starting in most leagues.

Dynasty Outlooks

The 2024 first-round picks both look to have very bright futures in the league, but Nabers definitely looks like the better dynasty option at this point. That matches where they were drafted, with Nabers going sixth overall and Thomas 23rd.

Nabers has already established himself as the team’s No. 1 wideout, and it’s highly unlikely he’s ever passed up by a teammate, whether that be a wideout on the team now or someone acquired in the draft or free agency. Nabers has already become a top-end fantasy talent, and will likely be drafted inside the first two rounds in redraft leagues for the 2025 season.

I mentioned it a bit already, but the only issues we have to worry about with Nabers are his health and his quarterback play. Jones doesn’t look like the long-term answer at QB for the Giants, so Nabers’ fantasy value will be tied to whatever quarterback is brought in next. If the Giants elect to draft one and develop him, Nabers’ fantasy value could take a hit for a couple seasons - that might also lead to Nabers wanting out of New York.

But knowing Jones also isn’t a top-end quarterback and seeing Nabers’ production right now, it’s hard to imagine Nabers ever not being a fantasy star. There was a decent gap between him and Harrison coming into the season, but he’s definitely closed the gap. 

While Thomas was a first-round pick, he wasn’t nearly as heralded as a potential fantasy star like Harrison or Nabers. He was drafted around pick 115 on average.

Thomas now looks like a potential big-time draft steal, and as I mentioned, already has worked his way into the weekly starting conversation. He’s flying under the radar more because the Jaguars are winless, but he’s put up solid fantasy numbers every week.

Davis is more of a home run threat for NFL offenses, while he’s a boom-or-bust fantasy option. Thomas might not have played more snaps yet, but I’d say he’s already passed Thomas in the wide receiver pecking order in Jacksonville.

Kirk is the player Thomas will have to really compete with for targets over time. The thing working in Thomas’ favor is that Kirk works primarily out of the slot. While that might still mean a lot of targets for Kirk, Thomas can at least match his numbers with higher averages/more splash plays. Thomas might never be truly looked to as the No. 1 wideout in Jacksonville with Kirk around, but Thomas does indeed have a good chance to produce as the team’s top wideout.

Both Kirk and Davis are around for likely a couple more seasons, but I still believe Thomas can outproduce both guys and be the best fantasy pass catcher Jacksonville has to offer. His ceiling might not be quite as high as Nabers, but he’s still a very good dynasty asset.

How to Approach Nabers and Thomas

If you drafted Nabers or Thomas in your startup dynasty draft or offseason rookie draft, you have to be thrilled with the results so far.

I’ve seen Nabers as high as dynasty WR4 in some rankings lists. Even if you don’t value him quite that high, I think Nabers should be just about untouchable. If you are a contending dynasty team, he can absolutely help you win a title. If you are still in a rebuilding stage, he’s a player to build around.

I don’t view Thomas quite as high, but I do like him a lot more than other dynasty owners seem to. He’s another rookie who can help you win now, or one that you can build around. I’d do my best to hold on to Thomas.

Nabers and Thomas are two of the next big-time fantasy wide receivers in the NFL, and I’m extremely excited about what they could contribute in the years to come. They are weekly starting options in all fantasy leagues now, but even better assets in dynasty leagues.