Fantasy Football Stars Who Will Struggle in Week 5: Sam Darnold, Breece Hall, Malik Nabers and Dalton Kincaid

One player at each offensive fantasy football position who is in danger of a quiet game this week.

Last week’s attempt to find fantasy stars who would struggle turned out to be my own personal struggle instead, as most of the players defied my predictions:

• Jared Goff completed every pass he threw. Every single one. He was 18/18 for 292 yards and two touchdowns. It’s about as bad as I could have missed.
• Jonathan Taylor also had a very good game: 128 total yards and a touchdown. He suffered an ankle injury in the second half and is questionable heading into Week 5.
• Tyreek Hill caught four passes for 23 yards and ran three times to pick up 19 yards. That’s not a complete dud, but Hill’s owners are surely hoping for more than 4.2 points (8.2 PPR) each week.
• Dallas Goedert had a fine week of his own, leading his team with seven receptions and 62 yards. Philadelphia was missing both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, so it wasn’t a surprise to see someone step up, and Goedert was the man instead of any wide receiver.

Let’s go again and try to find fantasy stars who will struggle in Week 5. I am using defensive stats from NFL.com and our own FantasySP defensive rankings to determine the teams who have been best against the run and pass this season.

Quarterback

Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets (in London)

You might be saying that Darnold isn’t a star, but consider the following:

• Darnold is QB4 through the first month, scoring more than 20 fantasy points in each of the last three weeks
• He’s completing 69% of his passes at 8.8 yards per attempt, both far outpacing his career marks; same for his 11-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio
• Darnold’s 11 passing touchdowns are three more than anyone else, and he’s leading the league in Quarterback Rating. He’s third in QBR and in the top 10 in passing yards

This is the best stretch of Darnold’s career. That might mean a career resurgence, but it’s also a sign that things might come back toward Earth over the rest of the season. That doesn’t mean Darnold won’t be a good quarterback, but no one will be shocked if he regresses from maybe the best quarterback in football to just playing well.

The defense he’s facing is the biggest issue in Darnold’s Week 5 outlook. On top of flying across an ocean, Darnold must face a Jets team that has allowed the second-least passing yards and third-least yards per attempt. They’ve also given up the second-least fantasy points to QBs.

The way Minnesota has looked, none of that might matter; I projected Darnold as a borderline top-10 fantasy quarterback this season, so it’s not like he’s come out of nowhere. This passing game is set up to succeed.

There will be better weeks and matchups to get him into your lineup, though. You probably didn’t draft Darnold, meaning you might have another QB on your roster. If that’s the case, consider sitting the Vikings’ passer against his toughest test yet.

Running Back

Breece Hall, New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (in London)

On the other side of the London contest, Minnesota has shut down the run game, and it’s not just because they’ve been ahead the whole season. That’s part of it; teams haven’t run on the Vikings because they have had to throw to keep up.

In addition to allowing the second-least total rushing yards, Minnesota has allowed the third-least yards per carry, stopping teams on the few plays when they do run the ball. Unsurprisingly, that has meant weak fantasy performances, as the Vikings have given up the second-least fantasy points to running backs.

Hall hasn’t topped 62 rushing yards, averaging 43.5 per game. His receiving always helps, as he has caught 4.5 passes per game for 33.5 yards, but Hall hasn’t had a big game since being the second running back taken in most fantasy drafts.

More than just his performance, there is worry that Hall could be losing some work. Rookie Braelon Allen has carried the ball seven, 11, and eight times over the past three games and caught six passes in that span.

Hall is still on the field more, but Allen has played about one-third of the snaps the last three games. Every snap Hall loses is another missed chance at production. Allen’s emergence, while not sapping Hall of his value, is negatively impacting Hall’s fantasy outlook.

With another back around to take work and Hall having his least efficient season through the first month, a matchup with one of the best defenses so far isn’t going to do Hall any favors, and he is at risk of another anonymous performance.

Wide Receiver

Malik Nabers, New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks

This is a risky one after what we just saw from Seattle’s defense against Detroit on Monday night. Goff completed every pass he threw, as I mentioned above. Daniel Jones isn’t Goff, though, and the Giants are far from the level of the Lions.

Prior to the Detroit game, Seattle had been shutting down passing games, which led me to project that Goff could struggle. The Seahawks are ninth in both passing yards and yards per attempt allowed; they are seventh in fantasy appoints allowed to wide receivers.

Nabers has shown his prowess after just one month. He has gone over 65 yards in all four games, topping 100 twice and scoring three touchdowns. There’s no doubt that the Giants have a potential superstar on their hands, but there are a few things working against him.

First off, Nabers suffered a concussion near the end of Week 4 and is questionable against the Seahawks. If he does play, there is reason to be weary given the chance of reaggravating the issue. If Nabers sits, this same advice will extend to Wan'Dale Robinson, who isn’t a star, but he has produced good numbers in 2024 and would be the top guy in the lineup for the Giants.

This is a case of a questionable player (health-wise) going against a team who has been successful shutting down the pass (other than last week). Seattle has a pair of really good cornerbacks in Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon who make things tough on every wide receiver.

Nabers is likely to be a good fantasy player for a long time, but this week is one where he could be limited for multiple reasons.

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

I was hoping Kincaid would be more of a star by now. I don’t have a rooting interest in Kincaid or the Bills, but I was really high on the second-year player coming into 2024 because Buffalo has a dearth of high-level receiving talent. The thought process was that Kincaid, a first-round pick, could take on something like a Travis Kelce role as the de-facto WR1 (though no one is going to replicate Kelce).

Instead, he has averaged about three receptions and 33 yards per game while scoring just once. That’s “blah” tight end production, not the work of a blossoming star. It’s unfair to say Kincaid’s ceiling is capped because he didn’t become a superstar within his first 20 games, but he’s clearly not that player right now.

That’s OK; he has time. Very few guys enter the league producing like top-line players. It just means that Kincaid isn’t a guy to trust in every situation, something that comes into play here.

The Texans are third in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, fifth in passing yards allowed, and seventh in yards per pass allowed. They started becoming a strong defense last season with the imports of a defensive head coach and multiple high-level players, and Houston has kept that up for the most part.

Kincaid is still an inconsistent threat, and he has a tough matchup in this one. This is a week in which Kincaid would be best served on your bench in favor of a better matchup. There’s always a chance of production with Josh Allen throwing the ball, but this one seems to be working against Kincaid.

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