Fantasy Football Week 6 Wide Receiver Start/Sit: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jalen Tolbert, Rome Odunze
Ted breaks down three wide receivers to lock into your fantasy football lineups for Week 6 ... and three to leave on the bench.
Welcome back to FantasySP’s weekly fantasy football wide receiver start/sit breakdown! Last week’s results were good, aside from being one of many disappointed riders on the Dontayvion Wicks hype train (3.0 half-PPR points) and not believing in Jakobi Meyers’ ability to have a useable day against Patrick Surtain (10.2 half-PPR points). For Week 6, we have another week full of byes, so the standards will be a bit lowered for both sections. With that in mind, let’s get started!
For more help with your toughest Week 6 Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!
Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Start Week 6
Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Did you know that Darnell Mooney actually leads Drake London in both route participation rate (88.9% to 83.1%) and air yards share (37.1% to 33.9%)? London does lead in total target share (24.7% to 21.9%), but their roles are not far apart in terms of fantasy value.
While this may mean London is slightly overhyped, I think the more important conclusion is that Mooney is undervalued. This is especially true with the Falcons becoming more pass-happy every week. In Weeks 1-3, their neutral situation pass rate was just 54.1%. In Weeks 4 and 5, that shot up to 75.7%. Especially in a good matchup with the Panthers, that level of volume should allow Mooney to put up another solid week.
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
There are three keys to this play. The first is that Caleb Williams is clearly settling into the NFL after a rough first three weeks. Second, the Bears shifted to playing 11 personnel on the majority of their plays in Week 5. This meant Odunze, along with both D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, posted a very solid 88.6% route participation rate. The rookie also saw six targets for a 20.7% target share, all six of which were first-read targets.
Third, and most importantly, the Jaguars’ defense is terrible. They rank first in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs by an absolutely massive margin. Jacksonville’s defense is particularly bad against outside receivers, which suits Odunze well, as he runs 65.8% of his routes from outside (including 74.2% last week). The rookie is set up for a huge game this week.
Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
Speaking of exploitable defenses, let me introduce you to the Detroit Lions. Detroit ranks third in adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers and has given up the most yards and most receptions to WRs. That sets up great for Tolbert, who is now cemented as the Cowboys’ WR2 with Brandin Cooks on IR.
Last week, Tolbert posted an 82.2% route participation rate and 23.8% target share (10 targets), finishing with 87 yards and a touchdown on seven catches. In a game where the Cowboys are going to have to pass early and often to keep up, the third-year WR should be heavily involved again. Put him in your lineup with confidence.
Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Sit Week 6
Remember in the intro when I said the standards would be lowered for both sections this week? I lied. All three of this week’s “Sits” are currently being started in well over half of fantasy leagues and rank in the top 30 receivers in FantasyPros’ Week 6 Consensus Rankings. That means these players aren’t necessarily must-sits … but there are real reasons to be worried about them for this week.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Five weeks into the season, JSN isn’t quite having the sophomore breakout many fantasy players were hoping for. His role has expanded from his rookie season, but he is still averaging just 36.9 yards per game. This is largely thanks to his 7.7 ADOT, which, combined with low YAC numbers, means he ranks 15th-lowest out of 97 qualified receivers in yards per reception.
On a per-route basis, Smith-Njigba is actually performing worse than he did as a rookie, posting just 1.34 yards per route run (down from 1.39). He has benefited from increased route participation and the fact that the Seahawks lead the league with a pass rate 7.7% over expected. If the Seahawks lean more into the run game like they keep saying they will, Smith-Njigba’s already mediocre results could fall further.
As for this week’s matchup, the 49ers do currently rank as a plus matchup for opposing receivers. This game also has a decently high total at 49 points (again, JSN isn’t a must-bench). But with only one game above 51 yards on the season, Smith-Njigba simply isn’t scoring as many points as you might think (outside of full PPR formats). I would happily start any of the three receivers listed above over JSN this week, so he lands in the Sit section.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Olave is a talented receiver in a good matchup with the Buccaneers, who allow the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points to opposing receivers. However, the Saints will be without Derek Carr this week, instead starting fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler.
We’ve seen what playing with a backup did to Tyreek Hill … and Olave is no Tyreek. In fact, Olave isn’t even serving as his team’s WR1 so far this season: He trails Rashid Shaheed in target share by a solid margin, 19.9% to 25.0%. That 19.9% target share actually ranks Olave just 43rd in the league so far this season. Without elite volume and with a very questionable quarterback situation, Olave is not someone I would feel comfortable starting this week.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Last week, Pickens was half-benched by the Steelers, posting just a 61.3% route participation rate after averaging 81.2% over the first four weeks. We haven’t gotten any clear reasoning for this out of Mike Tomlin (what else is new), but the consensus is that this was a result of his lack of effort on certain plays and overall attitude. Since then, Pickens hasn’t exactly sounded like someone who has done some self-reflection.
The dog house is not a great place to be for a receiver who was already struggling to provide consistent fantasy production. Meanwhile, the Steelers rank fifth in the league in rush rate over expected and are three-point favorites against the woeful Raiders. If they can, and the Raiders could certainly give them this chance, Tomlin and Arthur Smith will happily run the ball all Sunday.
At the end of the day, putting aside the weird effort and benching issues, Pickens averaged just six targets and 7.5 half-PPR points in the Steelers’ three wins to start the season. Combine that with the chance his role is reduced, and he’s a very risky start for Week 6.
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