Finding the Top Week 9 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore, Bo Nix

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

Unsurprisingly, Cedric Tillman leads the way after his second straight week in the top 15 receivers. We have two popular Week 9 streaming defenses next, then another Browns receiver in Elijah Moore. Let’s break down all of the hottest waiver pickups. 

Top Predicted Week 9 Fantasy Football Adds

WR Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns (46% EWI)

Tillman is my top add this week wherever he is available. Obviously, his fantasy production has been great since Amari Cooper left, with back-to-back weeks above 14 Half-PPR points. But the sophomore receiver also has the encouraging peripherals to back up his production.

For one, Jameis Winston is a massive upgrade for Cleveland’s offense. He is averaging 8.61 adjusted net yards per attempt so far this season. That will likely regress in tougher matchups (and if opposing defenses start catching his handful of inexplicable throws per week), but it could be cut in half and still be well ahead of Deshaun Watson’s putrid 3.70. 

Just as importantly, Tillman is seeing excellent usage as a direct replacement for Amari Cooper in the Browns’ offense. Over the last two weeks, Tillman has seen a 23% target share, a 37% air yards share, and a 27% first-read target share. If he can maintain that workload, Tillman could be a legit WR2 candidate; with some regression, he’s still a great flex option. 

WR Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns (26% EWI)

While Tillman’s usage has been elite over the last two weeks, he didn’t actually lead the Browns in targets this week, as Elijah Moore paced the team with 12 targets. Now, I’m not as excited about Moore as I am about Tillman. In terms of route participation, Moore’s role hasn’t changed at all with Cooper’s departure — he is still consistently serving as the Browns’ WR3/slot option.

With that said, the former Jet does benefit from not having to play with Watson anymore. He also seemingly has a better rapport with Winston/Dorian Thompson-Robinson, with a 25% target per route run rate over the last two weeks compared to just 12% over the first six weeks. He’s more of a deep-league play, but Moore is still a very valid add heading into Week 10. 

QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (25% EWI)

Over the last four weeks, Nix is the fantasy QB3. Yes, he’s faced some bad defenses, and yes, a fair chunk of his production has come from some likely unsustainable rushing TD production. But the rookie seems to be finding a groove, and he does average a non-negligible 32 rushing yards per game. He’s worth adding if you’re looking for help at the QB position.

RB Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers (25% EWI)

If the 49ers weren’t on bye this week, I’m sure Isaac Guerendo’s EWI would be much higher. A fourth-round rookie with elite measurables, Guerendo has been excellent whenever the 49ers have called upon him so far this season. This week, he stepped in for Jordan Mason and racked up over 100 total yards and a touchdown on just 17 touches. For the season, Guerendo is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Whether it is his own doing or just a classic Kyle Shanahan stat, that’s impressive.

However, San Francisco being on bye this week is a huge issue for Guerendo’s value. Not only does that give Mason an extra week to recover from his shoulder injury, but the 49ers have hinted that superstar RB Christian McCaffrey could return in Week 10. If either of the RBs ahead of him on the depth chart is healthy, Guerendo is not a playable fantasy option. He’s worth stashing just in case in deeper leagues, but proceed with caution.  

WR Darius Slayton, New York Giants (23% EWI)

I’m honestly surprised to see Slayton’s EWI be this high. Yes, he just put up over 100 yards (in prime time, which always helps) against the Steelers. But just last week he caught only one pass for 11 yards. I think fantasy managers may be reading too much into Slayton’s solid outings in Weeks 5 and 6, which came with star rookie Malik Nabers sidelined.

With Nabers healthy, Slayton is averaging just 5.3 Half-PPR points per game on 4.2 targets. With Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson both ranking in the top five in the league in terms of targets, there isn’t enough room for a third relevant WR in this offense. Slayton can be left on the wire outside of deep leagues.

WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (20% EWI)

I’m going to keep this one short: Downs is a must-add in all formats following the announcement that Anthony Richardson is being benched for Joe Flacco. In games with Flacco under center, Downs averaged 15.2 points per game. Get him on your roster if he is available.  

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