Finding the Top Week 11 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Audric Estime, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Herbert

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

We have one clear leader in EWI this week, as Audric Estime checks in with a 52% mark, a full 20% clear of the next player. However, there are also some interesting names further down the list and a ton of players with EWI above 20%. Let’s break them all down!

Top Predicted Week 11 Fantasy Football Adds

RB Audric Estime, Denver Broncos (52% EWI)

Estime is far and away the leader in EWI, but his 52% number should actually be much higher. One simple rule to remember for fantasy football is that every single starting NFL running back is worth rostering, and Estime was clearly the Broncos’ lead back in Week 11. It remains to be seen if the fifth-round rookie will hold onto that job, but it sounds as though it is his to lose for now. He is a priority add in all formats.  

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, New Orleans Saints (32% EWI)

He’s not an absolute must-add like Estime, but Valdes-Scantling deserves this solid EWI number. The Saints’ WR room has been decimated by injuries, and the veteran speedster (who started the season in Buffalo) stepped up with three catches for 109 yards and two TDs on Sunday. 

He did only see three targets and posted just a 59% route participation rate, but those numbers were actually good enough to lead all of New Orleans’ WRs. Valdes-Scantling’s skill set also lines up well with Derek Carr’s — he can take the deep shots originally intended for Rashid Shaheed. That should be enough for MVS to be a boom-or-bust deep-league flex, and he has the upside to be more if his role continues growing in an offense desperate for outside weapons. 

QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (25% EWI)

Although he didn’t score his highest point total of the season, Herbert took advantage of a down week around the league to post his highest fantasy finish of the season in Week 10, ranking as the QB8 for the week. This was his fourth straight week among the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks and above 14.8 fantasy points, both feats he failed to achieve across his first five games of the season.

With that said, there were some red flags for Herbert’s future outlook on Sunday. After posting positive pass rates vs. expected in each of the previous three weeks, the Chargers reverted to a run-heavy approach on Sunday, posting a pass rate 7.9% below expected. Herbert only attempted 18 passes, bailing his fantasy scoring out with 32 yards and a touchdown on the ground. 

The question is whether this was a one-week blip as a result of an easy matchup with the Titans or the beginning of a return to Stone Age football for the Chargers. Herbert has been playing like the best quarterback in the league over the last month, but that won’t matter if he only throws 20 passes a game. Still, he’s absolutely worth adding if you need quarterback help — he’s a philosophy shift away from QB1 production the rest of the way.   

QB Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (25% EWI)

Next up, we’ve got another solid option if you need QB production, as Wilson has been productive since taking over as the Steelers’ starter in Week 7. It’s a small three-game sample, but his 18.9 points per game ranks seventh among all QBs. His style of play is a perfect fit for George Pickens, and the addition of another jump ball receiver in Mike Williams should only help.

We should expect some regression moving forward for Russ, as his 7.1% TD rate would rank second to only Lamar Jackson if he had the volume to be a qualified quarterback. But the veteran has been playing legitimately well and has a favorable schedule going forward. I don’t think his ceiling is as high as Herbert’s, but he may be a better bet for floor production going forward.

WR John Metchie, Houston Texans (23% EWI)

Honestly, this number is a bit high for my taste. Metchie is an intriguing player as a former second-round pick coming off a breakout game, but it’s hard to see his path to fantasy relevance. Nico Collins should be back this week, which will leave Metchie locked in as the Texans’ third receiver behind Collins and Tank Dell. And nothing about this Texans offense indicates that it will be able to support three (or even two?) consistent fantasy pass-catchers. Metchie is worth a flier in particularly deep leagues, but I’m leaving him on waivers in most formats.

WR Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers (22% EWI)

Pearsall is in a similar situation to Metchie. A first-round pick in this year’s draft, Pearsall has draft capital, and he produced well in Week 10 (four catches for 73 yards and a touchdown). The issue is that he is the 49ers’ clear third receiver behind Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings, and that’s not to mention two more elite playmakers in George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. 

With that said, Pearsall has two key advantages over Metchie. While we’ve seen Metchie struggle to make an impact in the NFL for a year and a half now, Sunday was just Ricky’s third career game. There’s a much greater chance that he has the talent to force himself into a larger role. Additionally, San Francisco’s offense is much better than this version of the Texans’ offense. He may not be consistent, but Pearsall will have boom games even as the fifth option on the 49ers' offense. With that in mind, he seems like a great discount play on waivers this week given that his EWI is actually 1% lower than Metchie’s.  

RB Cam Akers, Minnesota Vikings (22% EWI)

Akers has a solid EWI for a simple reason: Since being traded to Minnesota, he’s established himself as the RB2 behind Aaron Jones, and the veteran RB is now banged up. Jones did eventually return to the field on Sunday and is reportedly good to go going forward, but players aren’t normally carted off for no reason. Akers was already a top-tier handcuff, so he’s a decent add even if Jones is healthy. Don't expect Jones to miss Week 11 and overprioritize Akers as a result, but it may be a sharp move to swap him in for a different handcuff whose lead RB is 100% healthy.  

WR Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns (22% EWI)

Moore was a hot pickup two weeks ago after he had a big game in Jameis Winston’s first start. Since then, the Browns saw the ugly side of Winston in Week 9 (three picks and just 5.1 yards per attempt) and then were on bye in Week 10. 

With that said, the good thing about Winston is that he is always going to chuck it. He had over 40 attempts in both of his first two starts, which massively increases the amount of targets to go around in this offense. I’m a little confused as to why Moore has such a high EWI this week, but he’s not a terrible add for deeper PPR leagues.

RB Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers (22% EWI)

Edwards returned to the field in Week 10 after missing four weeks with an ankle injury, and he actually looked better than he did at any point prior to the injury. He was clearly behind J.K. Dobbins for control of the Chargers’ backfield but still managed 55 rushing yards on 10 carries (just five fewer than Dobbins). 

While he may not ever have standalone value, this week at least reestablished that Edwards is the handcuff to roster in LA. That makes him a decent option to consider for the end of your bench. 

TE Will Dissly, Los Angeles Chargers (22% EWI)

The former Seahawk led the Chargers with six targets (a 33% share) on Sunday, catching five for 30 yards. This was actually Dissly’s third time in the last four weeks leading LA's weapons in targets, and he has seen an average of 6.75 looks over that span. 

With that said, I don’t actually have any interest in Dissly in most formats. His route participation has increased recently, but he is still hovering around a mediocre 60% participation rate (he was at 61% in Week 10). He is also averaging a tiny 8.24 yards per reception on a 4.0 ADOT, so he will need elite volume to provide consistent production. And, although his recent target shares are impressive, I simply don’t think Dissly is the kind of talent to continue leading this offense in targets. With his low per-reception numbers and how low-volume the Chargers' passing game has been, he would need to do that to be a weekly fantasy producer. He can be left on waivers unless you are in a league where tight ends have increased value. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.