Fantasy Football Week 11 D/ST Start/Sit: Rams, Jets, Chargers, Eagles, Bills, Chiefs

Welcome to the Week 11 fantasy football DST start/sit breakdown! In Week 10, our results were pretty good. The Start picks went one for two, with the Giants disappointing while the Chiefs came through with a solid outing. But the real magic came on the Sit side, as the Jets, Ravens, and 49ers, all three teams that were being started in over half of leagues, combined for a grand total of zero points. Once again, I was more successful as a hater than a believer, but hopefully this week I can hit on both fronts. Let’s get started!

For more help with your toughest Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!

Fantasy Football Defenses To Start Week 11

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots

As always, I’d like to start by featuring a team from my Week 11 Streaming DST breakdown. Of the four teams I wrote up prior to waivers running on Tuesday, three (Green Bay, Houston, and Miami) are now widely rostered and started. However, the Rams are still available in well over half of leagues and projected to be started in under 40%. 

However, they are a great option if you are still looking for a defense to trust this week. Drake Maye has been a marked improvement over Jacoby Brissett, but he is still making his fair share of rookie mistakes. The third-overall pick ranks 10th among qualified QBs in sack rate and eighth in interception rate. The Patriots also have the sixth-lowest implied total of the week at just 19.5. 

Of course, there’s a reason the Rams’ defense is still widely available, and that reason is that they simply aren’t that good. They rank 11th-worst in both yards and points per game given up, as well as eighth-worst in yards per play. However, they do have the third-highest pressure rate of any team. That should serve them well in a matchup with the Patriots’ abysmal offensive line. You can trust them as a solid starting option this week.  

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

How the mighty have fallen. Early in the season, the Jets’ defense was a fixture in the “Sit” section of this article, as fantasy managers believed in their reputation despite bad matchups and mediocre results for far too long. Now, even in a good matchup, the Jets are projected to be started in just under 50% of leagues. That’s going too far in the other direction.

After all, as disappointing as they’ve been this season, the Jets’ defense is theoretically one of the most talented units in the league. More importantly, they have a great matchup this week with the Colts, who have turned back to Anthony Richardson under center. Among 35 qualified QBs, Richardson ranks fifth-worst (ahead of only Deshaun Watson, Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett, and Will Levis) in adjusted EPA per play. His success rate lands him third-lowest in the league. 

To Richardson’s credit, he has been good at avoiding sacks, which makes him a less desirable target than he might otherwise be. But his 7.5% turnover-worthy throw rate is easily the highest in the league, even beating out noted interception machines like Levis and Watson. If the Jets’ defense can’t take advantage of this matchup, I will never recommend them again, but they deserve one last shot this week. 

Fantasy Football Defenses To Sit Week 11

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

I understand why 52% of managers want to keep starting the Chargers’ defense this week, as they have been excellent all season. LA ranks second in the league in EPA per play allowed, sixth in yards per game, and first in points against by a solid margin. With that said, I still can’t recommend starting them this week — matchup is simply too important for defensive scoring, and this is a bad one.

As you likely already know, the Bengals’ offense is one of the best in the league. Even after a slow start to the season, they rank fifth in EPA per play, sixth in points per game, and 12th in yards per game. They don’t make many mistakes, either, ranking in the bottom 10 in both turnover rate (per drive) and sack rate (per dropback). Despite this tough matchup, they still have a healthy 23-point implied team total for Week 11. The Chargers’ defense has been excellent, but I wouldn’t trust them this week … and their schedule doesn’t get any easier over the next four weeks (vs. Ravens, @ Falcons, @ Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers), so they are a totally valid drop candidate. 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders

Once again, we have a legitimately great defense in a not-so-great matchup. The Eagles rank sixth-best in EPA per play and points per game allowed and second in both yards per play and yards per game. But I can’t trust them against their divisional rivals on Thursday night.

In the NFL, great offense beats great defense. And the Commanders’ offense hasn’t just been great; it has been elite. Washington ranks second to only the dominant Ravens in EPA per play, third in points per game, and fourth in both yards per game and yards per play. Just like the Bengals, they have also been excellent in avoiding mistakes (aka not giving up fantasy points to opposing defenses). They have the second-lowest turnover rate in the league and give up the eighth-fewest sacks per game. 

The Eagles could have a good game tonight, especially given that Washington’s offensive production has slowed down just a hair in recent weeks. But it’s also very possible that this game devolves into a shootout, and Philadelphia's defense drops a stinker. You don’t want to start your fantasy week off with a bad defensive performance — look elsewhere for Week 11. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills AND Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

We get two Sits for the price of one here, as I’m not touching either defense in this marquee matchup between two of the AFC’s best teams. Both of these defenses have been good but not great, as they rank back-to-back at 10th and 11th in EPA per play allowed. On the other hand, both of these offenses have been excellent.

Buffalo ranks third in EPA per play and fourth in points per game offensively. The Chiefs rank “just” 11th in offensive EPA per play, but they rank second in success rate. That perfectly describes their season, as it hasn’t always been pretty, but they always find a way to get the job done. In a matchup where they will likely have to score some points, I am fully confident that Patrick Mahomes will drop 400 yards and five touchdowns if he needs to.  

Right now, both the Chiefs’ defense and the Bills’ defense are projected to be started in 47% of leagues. Both of those numbers should be much lower, as we might be in for a classic shootout between two of the best quarterbacks in the league.  

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.