Thursday Night Football Week 12: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns NFL Best Bets and Top Props

We have been killing it with our Thursday Night Football bets. Even in a down week last week, we still hit two of our three Best Bets and one of our three Top Props. There have also been a string of interesting TNF games, which historically hasn't always been the case all too often.

This week, we get an AFC North matchup with the first-place Pittsburgh Steelers heading on the road to take on the spiraling Cleveland Browns. This looks like a terrible game on paper, however, AFC North matchups tend to find a way to be entertaining if nothing else.

Cleveland is currently 1-1 against their division this season, with a win over the Baltimore Ravens despite only winning two games all year. Those things tend to happen a lot in the AFC North, where the games are usually hard-fought battles. 

NFL Best Bets Week 12

The Steelers are coming off a monstrous win over the Ravens in which they took control of first place in the division - a win that we here at FantasySP predicted. While injecting Russell Wilson into this offense and benching Justin Fields was a controversial decision at the time, it's proven to be a genius move by an outstanding head coach in Mike Tomlin, who simply knows how to win games and has known nothing but success in Pittsburgh. 

The Browns, on the other hand, are coming off a beat down at the hands of the lowly Saints in what has been a disastrous season that finds them sitting at 2-8 with a very uncertain long-term future. The defense is still a mess, however, the offense has become much better once Jameis Winston replaced an injured Deshaun Watson. They still aren't a very good offense, but they are no longer historically bad and give themselves and their fantasy options a fighting chance at success. 

When it comes to fantasy options in Pittsburgh it's simple. You have Russell Wilson as a streaming option and his top weapon George Pickens has become a weekly must-start wide receiver. He should be viewed as a clear WR1 this week against a Browns' defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wideouts this season. Najee Harris is also a solid high-volume running back in a game that should have a positive game script for him in a likely definitive victory. Jaylen Warren is the only question mark who can be started as a flex option, but we'd prefer to find someone else to plug in if possible. 

Cleveland is the more exciting team to watch as far as fantasy goes, even in a bad matchup. Winston is going to sling it no matter who he's up against and it's going to be fun. In three games as the starter, he's attempted 133 passes that have gone for just under 1,000 yards and six TDs. He's also limited the mistakes with just three picks, but we have a feeling that won't be the case in this one against this defense. 

Both Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy have emerged as viable fantasy options with Winston under center, with Tillman looking like a potential league-winning type of player down the stretch. Tillman has been targeted 40 times in the last four games, which he's turned into 303 yards and three TDs. Jeudy is coming off a huge game and has been solid over the past three weeks, catching 18 of 30 targets for 294 yards and one TD. We prefer Tillman to Jeudy if given the choice. 

Unfortunately, the rushing attack is one to completely avoid. You'll want no part of Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford, or Pierre Strong, especially in this matchup. However, David Njoku is still a starting option at tight end and has seen a significant uptick in production since Watson went down. He's been targeted 44 times in the past five games, catching 34 of them for 278 yards and two TDs. You can lock him in as TE1 for the remainder of the season and hopefully, he explodes down the stretch like he did last year. 

When it comes to the game itself, while we have some hope that the Browns can hang around, there is a good chance that the Steelers pull away with this one. The only saving grace for the Browns is that it's in Cleveland, which is a big advantage on a short week. 

The Picks

Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 37 (-108)
Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers (-198)

Player Props of the Night

Prop #1: Jameis Winston, Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

We already mentioned that Winston has attempted 133 passes in three games as the starter. In those three games, he's thrown the ball 46, 46, and 41 times. There is no reason to believe that that number will come down in a game that they are likely to be trailing throughout. Quite frankly, we were shocked to see this line so low, and barring injury, it's easy money. 

Prop #2: George Pickens, Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

This is another low bar that we have to clear. Pickens receiving yards haven't dropped below 70 in a single game since Wilson has taken over at quarterback. He's averaged over 91 receiving yards per game in those four games with Wilson. We would even go as far as to tease this line up to 70+ for +140 odds or 80+ for +210 odds.   

Prop #3: Total Turnovers, Over 2.5 (-145)  

These are three of the easiest prop bets for one game that we've had all season. It would be shocking if any of them didn't hit and didn't hit with ease. The Steelers are fourth in the league with 19 turnovers forced and are up against Jameis Winston. The Browns also have playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. These two defenses will get to this number one way or the other. Most likely with a couple of Winston INTs and a Steelers fumble. That could happen by halftime.