Fantasy Football Week 12 Wide Receiver Start/Sit: D.J. Moore, Quentin Johnston, DeAndre Hopkins, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Jaylen Waddle

Welcome to FantasySP’s Week 12 fantasy football wide receiver start/sit breakdown! As always, let’s start by looking back at last week’s picks. Jauan Jennings was obviously a big hit again with 20.1 Half-PPR points; unfortunately, he was easily the best of my start suggestions. Jakobi Meyers finished with just 6.8 points, while Brian Thomas Jr. was solid but not spectacular with 11.1.

Things were also mixed on the Sit side. Jayden Reed finished with 8.8, but given that he scored a touchdown and finished with just 18 combined rushing and receiving yards, I feel good about the process there. I don’t feel so good about the process with D.J. Moore, as I didn’t account for the possibility that Thomas Brown would improve the Bears’ offense; he did, including plenty of schemed touches for Moore, who scored a solid 10.2 points. Josh Downs also made me look stupid with 16.9 points and another great game (to be fair, I wasn’t doubting Downs, just Anthony Richardson, who had probably the best game of his NFL career). 

Overall, that’s not a great week. Hopefully I can bounce back in Week 12 with more consistent picks on both sides. Let’s get started!

For more help with your toughest Week 12 Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!

Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Start Week 12

D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

This is partially my way of apologizing for listing Moore as a Sit last week, but I also genuinely believe he is in a good spot this week. With just a 62% projected start rate, managers are clearly still hesitant to trust this Bears offense (with good reason). However, Thomas Brown made some meaningful changes for the better last week that have me more confident in DJM going forward.

Most importantly, Brown simplified Chicago’s offense. Coming into Week 11, Caleb Williams ranked third-lowest among qualified QBs with just 61% of his attempts going to first-read or designed targets. In Week 11, that number was 87%, which would easily lead the league if maintained for the season. This (plus some more designed rushing attempts) helped make the game easier for the first overall pick, who had easily his most efficient outing of the last month.

Even better for DJM in particular, a lot of those easy-button throws were designed to get the ball in his hands. He racked up four screen targets (and a rushing attempt) after coming into the week averaging just over one screen per game. Those screens were successful, with Moore gaining 44 total yards, so we will probably see more of them this week. Combine that with more targets down the field (DJM had just three non-screen targets last week but was still easily the Bears’ WR1 in route participation), and he should be in for a solid day against a Minnesota defense that ranks fourth in schedule-adjusted points allowed to WRs.

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens

It’s hard to overstate how soft the Ravens’ secondary has been this season. They easily rank first in schedule-adjusted points allowed to receivers, and they lead the league in both yards and touchdowns given up to the position. That sets up perfectly for the Chargers, who have been riding the wave of a red-hot Justin Herbert over the last few weeks. 

In Weeks 1-6, LA ranked above only the Tua-less Dolphins with a pass rate 7.2% below expected. In Week 7 onward, they rank sixth in the league with a pass rate 4% above expected. Over that span, Herbert leads the NFL in PFF Pass Grade and ranks third in adjusted net yards per attempt. 

Meanwhile, QJ (after missing some time with an ankle injury) has cemented himself as one of the Chargers’ top receivers. He has led the team in route participation rate in each of the last two weeks, with a 19% target share and a 35% air yards share in that time. In a game with a huge total where the Chargers will likely be dropping Herbert back early and often, I love his chances to have another solid outing. 

Bonus Deep-League Pick: A lot of the same logic applies to Josh Palmer, who has also been running a solid share of routes over the last few weeks and could take advantage of Herbert cooking in a great matchup. 

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers

This is one I’m a bit skeptical of. But it’s a rough week of byes, and I do think Watson deserves to be started in more than his currently projected 30% of leagues. Last week, coming out of the Packers’ bye, he set his season high with a 70% route participation rate. That was on a small sample size, as Jordan Love recorded just 20 dropbacks (seven lower than any other Week 11 starting QB), but it’s still a positive sign. 

Given that low team-wide volume, it’s very impressive that Watson finished with four catches on four targets for 150 yards. He led the team’s receivers in target share (24%) and air yards share (an absurd 76%) and tied for the lead in first-read target share (33%). For the season, although he has often played a part-time role, Watson leads the team’s three main receivers (RIP Dontayvion Wicks) with a 22% target per route run rate. Combine that with his massive 17.3 ADOT, and we have a high-ceiling fantasy asset. 

Of course, there are risks here. We’ve seen Watson’s split with Wicks vary seemingly at random, and his deep-threat role does mean he is capable of complete dud games. The 49ers also rank as the third-worst schedule-adjusted matchup for receivers. But, in a week with this many byes, Watson’s ceiling makes him worth sticking in your lineup and hoping for the best.

Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Sit Week 12

DeAndre Hopkins, Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

Since his huge Week 9 outburst in his second week as a Chief, DeAndre Hopkins has done nothing but trend in the wrong direction. His route participation rate has fallen from 62% to 60% all the way to 51% in Week 11. He has seen just a 12% target share in each of the last two weeks for 4.5 targets per game. 

At this point, the only logical assumption is that the Chiefs don’t currently plan on ramping Hopkins into a full-time role (at least during the regular season). And he’s simply not a particularly appealing fantasy play at route participation rates around 60%, if not lower. We know he still has huge ceiling potential, but I don’t think we’ll see that in a game against the Panthers that the Chiefs should win easily. Leave D-Hop on your bench this week.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

At this point, there may not be anyone who needs to hear this, but Waddle is still projected to be started in over 50% of leagues, so I’ll say it anyway. The last time Waddle finished as a top-30 fantasy receiver was all the way back in Week 1. Even if we filter just to games with Tua Tagoavailoa under center, he is a distant fourth in targets for Miami with just a 13% target share. This isn’t just a fluke, either, as he ranks fourth in first-read target share as well at 15%. Waddle is simply not a priority in Miami's offense, and they haven't been good enough to allow him to produce as the fourth option.

Like Hopkins, Waddle still has the talent to burn you with a huge game, and he’s not a must-bench. But with the way he’s been producing, he absolutely isn’t someone to leave in your lineup without thinking about it.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers

I listed Reed as a Sit last week, so I was worried when he scored a 15-yard touchdown less than five minutes into the game. Luckily, that was essentially the only thing he did. He finished with just two catches for 23 yards and one carry for negative five yards. And — this is the main reason why I’m going back to him — his underlying usage didn’t improve at all. Reed ranked fourth on the Packers with just a 60% route participation rate, and his two targets converted to just a 12% target share.   

This wasn’t anything new for Reed, who has averaged a 17% target share on a 71% route participation rate for the season. Those numbers are also trending in the wrong direction as the Packers’ offense gets healthy — he has seen a target share of 12% or lower in three of his last four outings and 19% or lower in each of his last five. That’s simply not startable usage. Combine that with the fact that the 49ers are the third-toughest matchup overall for receivers and fourth-toughest for slot WRs, and I’m leaving Reed on benches again in Week 12. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.