Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Draft Bust Candidates for 2025: Chris Sale, Corbin Burnes, Garrett Crochet and More

It’s time to continue my fantasy baseball draft bust series with the starting pitcher writeup.

There’s a ton of pitchers I could have mentioned, but I identified five guys listed inside the top 60 picks so far on the ADP rankings.

I’ve gone over draft bust candidates at first base, second base, third base and shortstop so far. Here’s my top-10 starting pitcher rankings for redraft and dynasty leagues. Check back soon for a starting pitcher draft steal candidate story.

Check out Fantasy Baseball Average Draft Position data for 2025 and get ready for your fantasy drafts by utilizing the FantasySP Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator.

1. Chris Sale

Sale was my No. 6 fantasy pitcher in my top-10 redraft rankings for 2025. It’s easy to guess why he’s on my draft bust candidate story though.

He was the No. 3 fantasy SP finisher in 2024 and an elite fantasy pitcher all season, but he’s also struggled with durability throughout his career. Last season was his first time over 25 starts since 2019.

When healthy, Sale is one of the better fantasy options in the game though. Last season in 29 starts and 177 2/3 innings, Sale had a 2.38 earned run average and 225 strikeouts. He went 18-3 and had a 1.01 WHIP.

Sale is a top-10 fantasy pitcher, which he should be after a season like that. He could really be a steal if he pitches to similar numbers again, but I think he’s a bigger bust candidate because there’s more room to fall than to rise.

If I ended up drafting Sale this season, I’d make sure to really bolster my starting rotation outside him in case he misses time along the way. He could be one of the bigger make-or-break fantasy pitchers in 2025.

2. Corbin Burnes

I have Burnes as my No. 7 fantasy pitcher for 2025, but he’s the fifth one off draft boards on average. You can probably tell I was already a bit down on him because of my ranking.

Burnes was the No. 8 fantasy pitcher last season, and he found a new home this offseason, landing with Arizona. He’ll be the Diamondbacks’ top starter, but his reward for signing in the NL West is a bunch of matchups with the Dodgers and Padres.

I think Burnes already peaked a couple seasons ago, and after finally getting his long-term deal, I think Burnes might regress a bit after some stellar seasons. Last season, Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA across 194 1/3 innings. He struck out 181 batters and had a 1.10 WHIP.

His big fantasy appeal was in the strikeouts, and was 20 strikeouts off the top-10 strikeout pitchers last season. His ERA was still really good, but his fantasy score took a big hit without the big amount of strikeouts.

I don’t think Burnes will be a complete bust (unless he misses time because of injuries), but I do not believe he is worth a pick in the top 30. If he falls a round or two, I’d be much more inclined to take him.

3. Garrett Crochet

I hate to put Crochet on this list, but it’s really almost a given.

He broke out in 2024, starting 32 games after not making a start in three previous MLB seasons. All Crochet did was strike out 209 batters in 146 innings and post a 3.58 ERA on a terrible White Sox team. He went 6-12 and had a strong 1.07 WHIP.

He was moved to the Red Sox this offseason, which boosted his fantasy outlook significantly. Crochet is the No. 9 fantasy SP on the ADP list so far, and that makes him a big risk to be a bust.

Crochet was not a top-25 finisher at the position last year, with the lack of innings being a big reason why. If he’s healthy all season, it’d be really surprising to not see his inning count go up. However, after just one year as a starter, I doubt the Red Sox want him too far over 165 innings.

Getting to 180 innings is a pretty good mark for a fantasy starting pitcher, and I don’t think Crochet will be anywhere near that mark this season. He’s a very enticing fantasy asset because of all the strikeouts, but he’s likely going to fail to finish inside the top 10, and probably even top 15, without getting near 180 innings. He’d have to strike out even more batters, or post a sub-3.00 ERA in order to land inside the top 15 by the end of the season.

I like Crochet as a fantasy asset, but his draft value is far too high right now. He’d need to drop probably 20 or so picks for me to really feel comfortable taking him.

Crochet has much more appeal in dynasty/keeper leagues, but in a standard league, I think a lot of fantasy owners are going to be disappointed with his performance by the end of the season.

4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yamamoto is another top-50 pick who I think could bust this season. He was outside the 50 at the position last season because he missed a good amount of starts.

In 18 starts, Yamamoto went 7-2 and had a 3.00 ERA. He struck out 105 batters over 90 innings. If he were able to replicate those numbers over a full season, he’d be a great fantasy asset, but he’s definitely a risk after missing over 10 starts last year.

I get the hype around Yamamoto, but at the same time, using a pick that early on seems too risky. Like in the case with Sale, I’d really want to load up on pitchers in case Yamamoto missed a bunch of starts again in 2025.

Sure, injuries can happen to any pitcher, but for it to be his first MLB season and have injuries is not a great start to things. Los Angeles also has plenty of pitchers to get through the season, so any little bump and bruise could mean a starter lands on the injured reserve list. All the Dodgers care about is winning another title, not your fantasy team.

I’m speculating a bit, but they are valid concerns and points I’m making. I think the price on Yamamoto is a bit too high, and I’d advise against taking him, unless it were a couple rounds after his current ADP.

5. Pablo Lopez

Lopez had a tough go of things last season, but apparently people are expecting a bounceback season, because his ADP is much higher than where he finished.

He was the No. 23 fantasy finisher at SP, but is the 16th starter taken so far this draft season. There’s reasons to believe he could bounce back for sure, but I wouldn’t be drafting Lopez nearly as high.

Lopez was 15-10 across 32 starts last season. He had a 4.08 ERA, his highest since 2019. He struck out 198 batters over 185 1/3 innings. Lopez’s 1.19 WHIP was the third-highest in his career.

It was a drastic dropoff in several stats after a standout 2023 season. I’m not sure Lopez can ever return to that level of pitching, so I guess I’m saying he’s already peaked too.

The AL Central is loaded, with the Guardians, Royals and Tigers all coming off postseason berths. Cleveland is in position to contend again, and Kansas City and Detroit should only improve as their team gets accustomed to the big leagues.

I think things will be tough on Lopez, and I don’t see a big bounceback season coming. I’m fine drafting him around where he finished last season, but that’s about 20 picks later than his current mark. I doubt he lasts that long, so I’d suggest just to skip Lopez this season and let someone else take the gamble.