Week 15 Fantasy Football QB Start Decisions: Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray and Bo Nix
Comparing four quarterbacks to Tua Tagovailoa in Week 15 of the NFL season.
Tua Tagovailoa is all over our FantasySP “Who Should I Start?” tool. That means a lot of owners are weighing Tua against other fantasy quarterbacks in the first week of the fantasy football playoffs (for most leagues).
That makes it worth going through some of the head-to-head decisions owners are facing with Tagovailoa vs. Quarterback X. This will give a look at multiple QBs in the fantasy middle who might be worth starting, so even if it doesn’t hit your quandary exactly, we will answer a lot of questions below.
We’ll start with the man himself and then compare him to some of the other quarterbacks hitting the “Who Should I Start?” tool. I’m going to use a lot of numbers from the stats at NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings. I will reference those numbers often.
The full rankings for each of the five players is listed at the bottom.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Based on the season-long numbers, this is a tough matchup for the Miami QB. Houston has allowed the fifth-least yards per pass attempt and is right in the middle in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. They have allowed the 12th-least points per game.
Houston had a rough run statistically against the pass in the four games prior to their Week 14 bye. Against the Lions, Cowboys, Titans, then Jaguars, the Texans gave up an average of 288 passing yards per game. They did record eight interceptions versus just seven touchdown passes allowed, but five of those picks came against Jared Goff in a game the Texans still lost 26-23.
This defense has been vulnerable lately, but the week off may have given them the chance to regroup. Their true talent level is probably somewhere between their recent play and the shut-down work at the beginning of the season. That would mean regression in their favor.
Tua’s own play has been good when he’s been on the field. The four games he missed earlier in the season bring down his overall numbers, but Tagovailoa has a career-high 73.8% completion percentage, is averaging over 270 yards per game, and has a 17-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio.
He is QB8 by fantasy points per game (again, the missed time hurts his total rank). Tagovailoa is having a very good year by both real-life and fantasy standards. He is a middling play in Week 15 against a tougher defense, though their recent struggles give hope of a bigger game.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Herbert has a nice matchup here: While Tampa is in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, they have given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Part of that is the Bucs allowing the 10th-most passing touchdowns, and the other part is giving up the sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks and tied for the most rushing touchdowns.
Herbert has averaged about 17 rushing yards per game and scored twice, modest numbers, though those numbers also include kneels. He has reached at least 29 rushing yards four times, against the Browns, Titans, Saints, and Ravens. The first three teams listed there are among the top 13 in most rushing yards allowed to QBs.
The LA quarterback has a decent chance to add value with his legs in this one, a boost to any passer’s fantasy value. His passing volume hasn’t been there, in part because his team has been winning and controlling the ball with the run. The Chargers have attempted the third-least pass attempts, though Herbert has thrown all of those passes.
With a good matchup and facing an offense that might keep pushing them, Herbert is a good fantasy option this week. He and Tua are close to a 50/50 proposition; I’ll favor Herbert slightly.
Fantasy Advice: Start Justin Herbert over Tua Tagovailoa, but it’s close
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Hurts was my quarterback pick for fantasy star who would struggle in Week 15. The matchup against the Steelers is a tough one, as they have allowed the 10th-least yards per pass attempt and the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
A big part of their success in the fantasy world is limiting the run: Pittsburgh has allowed the third-least rushing yards and tied for second-least rushing touchdowns to QBs. Hurts draws a big part of his value from the run game.
It’s a little different because of the presence of the Tush Push, the most devastating play since the adaptation of the pick-and-roll. I’ve seen this stat quoted several times: Saquon Barkley has been tackled at the one-yard line 11 times, and 10 of those eventually became rushing touchdowns for Hurts.
A lot of that comes down to luck, but this is more of a pattern than an oddity at this point. A game in which the team doesn’t end up at the one-yard line will lower Hurts’ potential fantasy value, but he will still run the ball and gain value even if he doesn’t get in the end zone.
Hurts is a top-three fantasy quarterback. With both he and Tua facing tougher matchups, I’m sticking with the more elite (from a fantasy perspective) Hurts.
Fantasy Advice: Start Jalen Hurts over Tua Tagovailoa
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. New England Patriots
Murray has thrown every pass for the Cardinals through 13 games, a good sight after he missed around a year recovering from a major knee injury between 2022-23. He has been very much in line with his career numbers throwing the ball, though his interception rate is a little high.
He has excelled running the ball, as Murray is averaging his most yards per rush attempt (7.7) by a full 1.5 yards. He’s on pace for about 580 yards and five touchdowns, which would both be the second-highest numbers of his career (tied for second in TDs).
All this has added up to a QB10 performance. That puts Murray squarely on the fantasy starter list but maybe not necessarily a must-start player. The matchup does play a little bit of a role in Murray’s place in the fantasy hierarchy each week.
The Patriots have allowed the 10th-most yards per pass attempt and 12th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They provide a good-not-great matchup that makes Murray an appealing player.
Against the Arizona QB, though, is that New England has allowed the fourth-least rush yards to quarterbacks and tied for the second-least rushing touchdowns. Murray just throwing the ball is OK, but he’s not a great fantasy player. His running makes him a dynamic threat.
Taking away his 68.4 fantasy points from rushing production would drop Murray from QB10 to QB22, one spot after Tagovailoa (who again, missed four games). Murray has the higher ceiling because of his rushing, but this might not be the perfect matchup. I slightly favor Tua.
Fantasy Advice: Start Tua Tagovailoa over Kyler Murray, but it’s close
Bo Nix" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#player-pop-up" href="/nfl_player_news/Bo_Nix/">Bo Nix, Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts
Nix’s fantasy value is dependent on the opponent, and he has shown a high ceiling in the right matchups. Nix has played eight games against teams ranked 1-11 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and five games against teams ranked 18-32.
- Against Teams Ranked 1-11: 252.3 pass yards, 1.8 touchdowns, and 0.4 interceptions per game
- Against Teams Ranked 18-32: 164.8 pass yards, 0.6 touchdowns, and 1.0 interceptions per game
Nix has feasted on the worst pass defenses and been held down against the best teams. There’s nothing wrong with that, and it’s impressive he’s at that level as a rookie, but it means he isn’t a weekly fantasy starter.
The matchup is a good one here, putting Nix on the fantasy radar. Indianapolis has allowed the sixth-most yards per pass attempt and 13th-most fantasy points per game to QBs. It’s not the best matchup, but it’s above average and makes him a guy worth considering.
I’d still rather have Tagovailoa. Tua is the more polished passer and has better pass-catchers, while Nix’s team is propped up more by the defense.
Fantasy Advice: Start Tua Tagovailoa over Bo Nix
Overall Week 15 Rankings
- Jalen Hurts, PHI
- Justin Herbert, LAC
- Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
- Kyler Murray, ARI
- Bo Nix, Den
