Week 16 Fantasy Football Quarterback Start/Sit: Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert and More

The fantasy playoffs are about luck, not who is most deserving. Anything can happen in any single week, but it often evens out over the full season. There is no time to wait for regression, though, when one loss means the end of your shot at fantasy glory.

Let’s look at three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in Week 16. I used stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings to help determine the best and worst matchups. I will reference those numbers often.

Start

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Carolina has allowed the seventh-most yards per pass attempt and fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. I don’t need to throw out a lot of stats to make the point: Carolina is one of the worst teams in the entire league.

Murray has been doing Murray things, playing near average (or a little better) as a passer and adding plenty more value as a runner. His 455 rushing yards are his most since 2020, and his 7.2 yards per attempt are a career high by a full yard. The Panthers have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.

Murray is currently QB11, right on the edge of weekly starter status. His running always makes him an intriguing fantasy player, and the matchup here couldn’t be much better. Murray is a clear top-10 play.

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Rams

Rodgers was listed here last week as well because he had probably the best quarterback matchup available against Jacksonville. He came through in a big way, throwing for 289 yards and three touchdowns. Rodgers even led his team in rushing with 45 yards.

The matchup isn’t as good in this one, but LA has given up the third-most yards per pass attempt and 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They held down Brock Purdy last Thursday in a downpour, but the Rams gave up 42 points and 342 passing yards to Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 14.

Rodgers is obviously well below his highest level of play, but he has two Pro-Bowl-level receivers and can still make plenty of plays against bad teams. He’s a worthy streamer this week if you’re without an option, though don’t expect a performance as big as last week.

Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Wilson is coming off two underwhelming statistical games, but he had combined for close to 700 yards in the two games before that. Most important for his team, Pittsburgh is 6-2 with Wilson under center.

He did struggle against Baltimore in a previous game (205 yards, 5.7 per attempt, no touchdowns, one interception), but the Ravens are still one of the worst pass defenses statistically. They have allowed the 11th-most yards per pass attempt and seventh-most fantasy points per game to QBs.

Wilson is a good streamer here. George Pickens might miss the game, lowering Wilson’s ceiling, but the matchup is right to put up some decent numbers.

Sit

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

Denver is allowing the third-least yards per pass attempt and seventh-least fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has done an admirable job, but the Broncos are going to make the playoffs because their defense is their strongest unit.

This is a huge game for both the Chargers and Broncos, but Denver has a little more leeway with a one-game lead on LA and a three-game cushion over every non-playoff team with just three weeks remaining. While Herbert and the Chargers disappointed greatly last week, this is a chance to nearly lock in their playoff spot.

It’s likely to be a defensive battle, though, as both teams have more success controlling the game rather than excelling offensively. Herbert is more likely to have a modest game than a top-10 fantasy performance.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Don’t look at Buffalo’s two most recent games for evidence that they stop the pass and play strong defense. The Bills let Matthew Stafford throw for 320 yards on 10.7 per attempt with two touchdowns and no interceptions in Week 14. They followed that up with an even worse defensive performance last week: Jared Goff had nearly 500 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions.

Their numbers over the full season are much better, though, as Buffalo has allowed the ninth-least fantasy points to QBs and an average number of yards per pass attempt. Maye is a decent fantasy quarterback worthy of a fantasy spot on the right weeks. He is QB12 since Week 6, when he took over the starting job.

With the matchup against him, though, this isn’t a week to put Maye in your lineup. He has a very low floor that makes him too risky unless you’re without any other option.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers

Tagovailoa was in danger of a slow week because of a tough matchup against the Texans last week; he ended up with 196 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. He even lost a fumble, so his four turnovers completely nullified the eight points he got from yardage.

He has another tough go of it in Week 16 against a San Francisco team that is allowing the fifth-least yards per pass attempt and ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. It’s simply a bad stretch at the worst time of the fantasy season for the Miami QB.

Tua is a guy to skip this week. With no teams on bye, there is probably a better matchup out there that gives you a higher upside.