Wild Card Weekend Running Back Start Sit Decisions: Joe Mixon vs. James Cook, Rachaad White vs. Austin Ekeler, Jaleel McLaughlin vs. Audric Estime vs. Javonte Williams

It’s time for the NFL playoffs and playoff fantasy football! Playoff fantasy is a different beast, so I will be approaching these Start/Sit articles differently. I gave a full breakdown of my new approach and the reasoning behind it in my Wide Receiver Start/Sit Article, but here is the short version: Formats and league sizes vary so widely that I cannot give one-size-fits-all advice. Instead, I will pick a few of the most popular specific decisions from FantasySP’s Start/Sit Tool, breaking down which of two players to start. If that isn’t clear, don’t worry, it will be soon. Let’s get started! 

Can’t find your own tough decision here? Use the NFL Start/Sit Tool for yourself to see what choice is recommended by experts, projections, and other managers!

Volume vs. Efficiency: Joe Mixon vs. James Cook

Both of these backs were very effective in the regular season. In fact, they finished the season ranked back-to-back as the RB9 (Mixon) and RB10 (Cook) in terms of Half-PPR points per game. However, they got there in very different ways. 

Mixon absolutely dominated usage in the Texans’ backfield. In his 13 active non-Week-18 games, which even includes a couple of games where he was limited by injury, he handled 90% of Houston’s RB carries and racked up an 11.6% target share. He also handled all but one of the Texans’ 11 goal-line carries in his active games, racking up 0.76 rushing TDs per game.

Cook, meanwhile, played a much smaller role in the Bills’ backfield. In his 16 games (which coincidentally also include two games impacted by injury), he saw just 63% of the Bills’ RB carries and an 8.2% target share, as the Bills consistently used both veteran Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis in a variety of situations. Cook also handled just 11 of the Bills’ 26 goal-line attempts — Davis and Johnson were involved there, too, but that is mostly the Josh Allen effect. But Cook absolutely lapped Mixon in terms of efficiency, with more yards per attempt and an absurd 18 combined rushing and receiving TDs, the second most in the league.

Normally, my default is to back a player with elite volume and mediocre efficiency over a player with the reverse. But Cook’s 16-game sample proves his efficiency isn’t just a fluke. We also have to take into account situation. Cook’s Bills have a massive 28.5-point team total, while Mixon’s Texans have earned a mediocre 19.5-point total with some miserable outings to finish the season. Cook’s smaller share of Buffalo’s massive pie may actually result in a similar level of expected points to Mixon’s dominant workload in the Texans’ sputtering offense. Once we also factor in the difference in efficiency between the two, this is a no-brainer.

Start: James Cook

Battle of the RB2s: Rachaad White vs. Austin Ekeler

From two borderline fantasy RB1s, we jump to two guys who aren’t even the RB1s on their own teams. However, if you had to start the second back on any teams, these would be the teams to target. White’s Buccaneers and Ekeler’s Commanders will play each other on Sunday night in what should be a game filled with fantasy goodness. The big question is how much these two backs will be involved.

For the season, both White and Ekeler saw decent (and surprisingly similar) usage in their respective backfields. White averaged a 32% rush share and an 11% target share on a 55% snap rate. Ekeler saw a lower rush share at 22% (although that is slightly impacted by him playing with a rushing QB in Jayden Daniels) but also posted an 11% target share on a similar 51% snap share. However, they both have major red flags heading into the playoffs. Ekeler is making his return from the concussion protocol, so there is a chance that he sees less work than usual. Meanwhile, White is 100% healthy but was completely iced by rookie Bucky Irving in the Buccaneers’ final game of the season, recording zero touches.

To be fair to White, I don’t think we can expect him to drop a complete goose egg again. Irving definitely cut into his workload more as the season went on, but this was White’s first week not seeing at least a handful of touches. Even looking just at Week 18, the veteran still played 27% of the Buccaneers’ snaps and posted a 28% route participation rate — with those numbers, he should have seen at least a target or two. But with that said, I simply can’t recommend starting someone who saw zero touches in a must-win game just seven days ago. Ekeler may be returning from injury, but he was still involved in the Commanders’ offense the last time we saw him. I’d rather roll those dice than hope the Buccaneers decide to return to White with their season on the line.    

Start: Austin Ekeler

Is Any Denver RB Playable?: Audric Estime vs. Jaleel McLaughlin vs. Javonte Williams

The Broncos’ backfield is an absolute mess. For the season, Williams led their RBs with 7.8 Half-PPR points per game, ranking him as the RB38 in the league … and he totaled just 10 touches over the last two weeks of the season. After spending most of the season as one of the worst rushers in the league, Williams was reduced to essentially a passing-down-only role, with a 9% RB rush share. The other 91% of the Broncos’ RB carries in Weeks 17 and 18 were split between McLaughlin (49%) and Estime (40%), with fullback Michael Burton also recording one tote.   

However, Williams did still dominate the receiving game, leading the group with a 38% route participation rate and a 10% target share. McLaughlin also saw some receiving usage with a 15% route share and a 7% target share, while Estime saw just one target on five routes. This is especially important because the Bills, who are a tough matchup for RBs overall, lead the league in receiving yards given up to running backs.

Of course, the issue with all of this analysis is that I am looking at just a two-game sample size. Were those two games the start of a trend or just a coincidence of Sean Payton pulling the same names out of a hat twice in a row? Throughout the season, this group’s usage changed on a weekly basis, seemingly at random. Still, we have nothing to go on but the numbers in front of us. With that in mind, my top pick is McLaughlin. He has seen the best usage over the last two weeks, and he is also the best playmaker of the group (which isn’t saying much). The second choice is tougher, but I have to give the edge to Williams over Estime; his receiving role will be valuable against this Bills defense, and there’s a non-zero chance he returns to a larger role on the ground as well.

Start: Jaleel McLaughlin > Javonte Williams > Audric Estime

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.