Fantasy Football Divisional Round QB Start/Sit: Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts and More
A look at the eight starting quarterbacks in action in the second round of the NFL playoffs.
After one week of the playoffs, we are left with a Who’s Who of top quarterbacks in the league, missing only a few names. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford; Jared Goff has been as efficient as anyone the last few years. Even the young stars are represented, as C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels will both take the field on Saturday.
That extends to fantasy football as well. Six of those eight quarterbacks finished in the top 11 in QB fantasy scoring, and the other two were Stroud and Stafford, who finished 18th and 19th, respectively. (Those fantasy scores and rankings are according to FantasyPros, who will be referenced throughout.)
Let’s look at the eight starting quarterbacks in the Divisional Round and their fantasy outlook based on their own performance, the matchup, and any other circumstances. I used stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings and will reference those numbers often; they are regular season stats unless otherwise noted or linked.
Players in each section are listed alphabetically, and the full rankings are listed at the bottom.
Start
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
Allen is one of the top two quarterbacks in fantasy football (his opponent in this game is the other one). He regularly scores among the top quarterbacks, and Allen has as much potential for scoring fantasy points as any other QB in the league (again, along with the guy he’s facing here).
The season-long numbers say Allen has a decent matchup: Baltimore allowed the 12th-most yards per pass attempt and ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That’s a team that can be taken advantage of for a nice fantasy score.
The Ravens started as one of the worst pass defenses, though, and improved throughout the season to become a stout unit. Over the final month of the season, they allowed an average of 195.3 pass yards per game, and each of the four teams they faced averaged less than 7.0 yards per attempt.
Russell Wilson did find some success against the Ravens in the Wild Card round, throwing for 270 yards on 9.3 per attempt with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Baltimore was up 21-0 at half and led by at least 14 for the entire second half, so they were likely backing off and letting Wilson complete passes underneath, boosting his numbers. The game played out in a way that made Wilson a good fantasy player.
No matter what we want to say about the matchup, Allen is still a fantasy star. When these teams faced off in Week 4, Allen labored to 180 yards on just 6.2 per attempt with a modest 21 rushing yards. He had no touchdowns or interceptions.
We’ve played almost an entire season since that time, though, and Allen played like an MVP the whole time. It’s not a great matchup, but almost no one gets those cushy opponents in the playoffs. Allen is a very good fantasy option.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
Daniels showed up when it mattered in his first playoff game, leading his team to a last-second field goal and a trip to the Divisional Round. He threw for 268 yards on 7.7 per attempt with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Bucs.
Daniels also led his team in rushing, though that amounted to only 36 yards. It wasn’t an accident that Daniels was QB5 in fantasy this season, as his rushing prowess and passing production made him look like one of the best players in fantasy football. The comparisons to Jackson are too easy, and that says a LOT about Daniels.
Detroit offers a better matchup for quarterbacks than you might think. They allowed the 11th-most yards per pass attempt and 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. That’s not a great matchup, but it’s enticing, especially in the playoffs.
The Lions were also in the top five in most rushing yards allowed to QBs. That’s a huge deal against such a dynamic player and something that could help keep Washington in the game.
Daniels is in position to possibly excel again. It’s going to take a Herculean effort to carry his team over the Lions, but Daniels is sure to put up big numbers while trying.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams offer the best quarterback matchup of any remaining team: They allowed the sixth-most yards per pass attempt and ninth-most fantasy points to QBs on the season. That’s a team that’s worth targeting any week of the season, so it’s super rare to see it in the second round of the playoffs.
Like the other top fantasy quarterbacks, Hurts earns his place because he runs as much as passes. The Tush Push is a deadly weapon at the one-yard line, and those rushing yards and touchdowns add up fast. Hurts was QB8 despite missing most of the final three weeks.
There’s not a lot else to say here; Hurts is a great fantasy option.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
I mentioned Allen as a top-two QB, and Jackson is the other half of that duo. Put them in either order, and it’s hard to argue. Jackson had the most fantasy points this season, but Allen scored more in each of the previous four years. And in the year prior to that, 2019, Jackson again had the most fantasy points in the league.
The matchup in this one is a little worse than average but not terrible. Buffalo was right in the middle in terms of yards per pass attempt allowed, but they did give up the eighth-least fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Specific to Jackson’s biggest fantasy strength, the Bills allowed the eighth-least rushing yards per game to quarterbacks during the season. Jackson will still run and get his yards, but the Bills might be able to slow him down a little.
In the first matchup, Jackson didn’t have to throw much, as his team marched to a 35-10 victory. He threw just 18 times, so his 156 yards (8.7 per attempt) were actually above average. Jackson also ran for 54 yards and a touchdown.
It’s reasonable to expect a game with more volume here, making him a better fantasy player. Like Allen, the matchup isn’t great, but the talent is too good to deny, making Jackson a top fantasy option.
Somewhere in the Middle
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders
Goff is maybe the anti-Daniels, his opponent in this game. While Daniels runs around the field and does as much damage with his legs as he does his arm, Goff is somewhat statuesque in the pocket. Where Goff has experience, both in years and in big games, Daniels is in his first season.
They are both successful in how they operate, though. Goff finished as QB6, just one spot behind Daniels. Goff’s team was obviously more successful, but it comes down to one game now, and the full season of goodwill won’t help anything if Detroit loses their first contest.
The Commanders went from the worst pass defense in the league in 2023 to a possible top-10 unit this year. They gave up the 12th-least yards per pass attempt and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. I find it hard to believe that the Commanders are a borderline top-10 pass D while the Lions are at the borderline of the bottom 10, but the numbers bear it out.
Detroit is a machine, and Goff will do his thing. The Lions aren’t going to get shut down by Washington’s defense. It might not be a march up and down the field every drive, though, making Goff a possible low-value play in DFS.
Sit
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
It’s unfair to call Mahomes a disappointment, but that’s how it looks simply from a fantasy perspective. He was QB11 after being taken as a top-five player at his position, the second year in a row he underplayed his draft slot significantly at the quarterback spot (in 2023, he was drafted as QB3 and finished as QB8).
While Mahomes is good scrambler, he doesn’t get plays called for him to run the ball the way guys like Allen and Jackson do, and he gets less chances at those most valuable yards. With so many guys now generating fantasy points with their legs, Mahomes has fallen down the hierarchy by simply being a great real-life quarterback.
The matchup is against him here too. Houston ended up in the middle in fantasy points allowed to QBs, but they gave up the sixth-fewest yards per pass attempt. The Texans made things really tough on Justin Herbert last week, as he was just 14/32 passing with a touchdown and four interceptions. His 242 yards aren’t bad, but 86 of those came on one play; it was a struggle.
These teams played in Week 16, a 27-19 Chiefs win. Mahomes ended up with good volume, 260 yards, but a below-average 6.6 yards per attempt. He added value with his legs to make it a good fantasy day, running for 33 yards and a touchdown.
Mahomes is an OK fantasy option but has a low floor due to Houston’s good defense. Kansas City has a strong defense of their own, and there’s a realistic outcome in which KC stifles the Texans on offense and wins a low-scoring game in which Mahomes doesn’t do much statistically.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Opposite of Hurts’ case, Stafford is matching up with maybe the best pass defense in football, creating a horrible matchup. Philadelphia allowed the least yards per pass attempt and third-least fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Most QBs are must-bench players against the Eagles.
Stafford always has the chance for a good game because of the people around him. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are one of the top wide receiver duos in the game, and coach Sean McVay is a renown play caller.
I can’t trust Stafford to have a big game against the Eagles, though. There are better options, and trying to go cheap in DFS with Stafford has the chance to lead to a lot of heartbreak.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
The matchup doesn’t look awful based on the numbers: Kansas City ended up right in the middle in both yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. It’s not quite that simple, though.
The Chiefs allowed the fourth-least points this year and were a top-line run defense. Teams couldn’t run on KC and often had to pass as the 15-2 Chiefs held leads. They aren’t the same shutdown pass defense from 2023, but nothing is easy against Kansas City.
Stroud had a good game in the first round against a really tough Chargers team. He had 282 passing yards on 8.5 yards per attempt with a touchdown and an interception. His 42 rushing yards were a nice little boost as well.
Those are better than his season numbers. Stroud averaged about 230 yards per game (not counting his six-attempt Week 18) at 7.0 per attempt. Stroud was OK in 2024; the defense was the driving force behind their division title. He took a step back from his breakout rookie season, though.
It’s risky to trust Stroud as a fantasy player this week. When these teams played a few weeks back, he had 244 yards (on just 6.3 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns and two interceptions. That’s OK, but there are better options.
Divisional Round Quarterback Fantasy Rankings
The top four guys could really go in any order. Those are the players I am targeting this week, as going with anyone else is setting yourself up for a possible low QB score. I highly recommend choosing from Jackson, Allen, Daniels, and Hurts.
- Lamar Jackson, BAL
- Josh Allen, BUF
- Jayden Daniels, WSH
- Jalen Hurts, PHI
- Jared Goff, DET
- Patrick Mahomes, KC
- Matthew Stafford, LAR
- C.J. Stroud, HOU
