NFL Divisional Round Prop Bets: Lamar Jackson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Terry McLaurin and More Likely to Hit Big

Fantasy football isn’t quite as accessible when the regular season ends. Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is always there, but not everyone is comfortable putting real money on a hobby, especially people who are used to putting minimal time into roster construction each week.

Where fantasy declines, gambling on games increases as the playoffs come, eventually peaking with the Super Bowl. Betting on the outcome of the game and over/under are the most popular bets. It’s easy to understand: who is going to win and by how much?

Digging a little deeper into individual players, we find prop bets on yardage, touchdowns, attempts, and more. The best bets can sometimes come from individual props if you find the right matchup for the right player.

Let’s look at one good bet in the Divisional Round for some of the most popular player props. Not everything below will necessarily be the “best” bet because that would require repeating the same things over and over, but each player highlighted has reason to believe they will fall on the right side of the line.

I used stats from NFL.com and information from our FantasySP Prop Bet tool and will reference those numbers often. Prop numbers are from FanDuel, and fantasy scores and rankings are from FantasyPros.

Passing Touchdowns

Lamar Jackson OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns

Jackson threw 41 TDs this season, tied for second with Baker Mayfield and just two behind Joe Burrow at the top of the league. We know what Jackson can do by now; he’s to the point where winning a Super Bowl is the only thing left.

After starting the year as one of the best pass defenses, Buffalo fell to middling. They finished in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed and tied for the eighth-most touchdown passes allowed.

As good as he’s been all season, it doesn’t seem like a lot to ask Jackson to throw for two touchdowns.

Quarterback to Throw an Interception

C.J. Stroud -140

Stroud tied seven other passers for the fourth-most interceptions this season (12). There’s a good chance his team is losing in this game and throwing to catch up toward the end. It’s a situation ripe for a desperation pick, if he doesn’t throw one before that against a Kansas City defense who might be ready to hit top gear.

Quarterback Rushing Yards

Jayden Daniels OVER 54.5 rushing yards

Daniels averaged 52.4 rush yards per game this season, and that includes two games in which he didn’t play in the second half (one of which he left in the first quarter). Just based on that, it seems like a good bet that Daniels would go over that number.

The matchup makes it even better: Detroit allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. The most likely outcome in this game is the Lions holding the lead and Washington needing big plays to come back. That would mean Daniels making plays, both with his legs and arm.

This is a case of an uber-athletic quarterback with the right matchup to have a big game with his legs; even a big number like 55 yards isn’t too many for Daniels.

Running Back Rushing Yards

Saquon Barkley OVER 111.5 rushing yards

Barkley ran for over 2,000 yards this season and didn’t even need the 17th game to get there. He averaged 125.3 rushing yards per game, hitting 5.8 yards per attempt. We don’t really need to argue his side of this proposition.

The Rams also offer a great matchup. They were in the top 10 in most yards per rush attempt allowed (4.6), but the previous matchup between these teams is the best reason to favor Barkley: when these teams faced off in Week 12, Barkley ran for 255 yards on 26 attempts (9.8 per attempt). He added 47 more yards on four receptions.

He probably won’t hit those same lofty numbers, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Barkley gain more yards than anyone else in this game, and that includes the passers.

Running Back Touchdown

Jahmyr Gibbs (-250) and David Montgomery (-175)

Washington allowed the third-most yards per rush attempt and tied for the 11th-most rushing touchdowns this season. Gibbs ran for the fifth-most yards and tied for the most rushing touchdowns. Gibbs scoring a touchdown might be one of this week’s most likely outcomes.

That’s why the odds aren’t great, though, and while Montgomery has a better number, it’s still not a value bet. Montgomery missed the final three weeks of the season but still scored 12 rushing touchdowns. This two-headed monster is the only true dual-back attack right now in which both backs are excelling.

While the lines won’t pay you back a fortune, both players are solid bets to score a touchdown. You may as well put the money on Montgomery since the return is better.

Receptions

Dalton Schultz OVER 3.5 catches

Kansas City was one of the worst teams against tight ends this season, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points and the most receiving yards to the position. Specific to this prop, the Chiefs gave up the second-most receptions to TEs (6.2 per game).

Schultz averaged 3.1 receptions per game in 2024. When these teams faced off in Week 16, Schultz had five receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown. That was tied for his season high in catches and was his fourth-highest yards total.

It’s tough to trust a player with a low floor, and I understand anyone who wouldn’t go anywhere near this bet. The numbers say Schultz has a chance at a decent game, though.

Receiving Yards

Saquon Barkley OVER 12.5 receiving yards

We talked about his rushing prowess last time against the Rams, and I also mentioned his 47 receiving yards. As involved as he is in all aspects of the offense, this seems like a low number. Barkley averaged 17.4 receiving yards per game during the season. Barkley has a good chance of hitting the over on this one.

Wide Receiver Touchdown

Terry McLaurin +130

McLaurin hit 1,000 yards for the fifth straight season, but most impressively (and important for his fantasy score) was that he scored 13 touchdowns, nearly twice as many as his previous career high. Jayden Daniels has proven himself, and McLaurin is the biggest benefactor of Washington’s new franchise QB.

This is likely to be a game in which Detroit scores plenty of points and Washington has to throw to keep up. That would mean plenty of chances for McLaurin to catch the ball and maybe find the end zone.