NFC Championship Game Player Prop Bets: Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and More

Pardon me if I’m frank: We are running out of time to bet on NFL football. Unless you’re in a playoffs-long fantasy contest, you’re probably only playing DFS, and we’re down to two individual days of that format.

Maybe the best thing to do to get your fix is to look at the game lines and player prop bets. We can’t guarantee a winner, but we can guarantee that you’ll stress out to the last minute with many of your bets.

Let’s look at some popular individual prop bets for the NFC Championship Game and identify bets that have value and/or reason to believe they will fall a certain way. All lines and betting information are from FanDuel and accurate as of Thursday night (January 23). Stats are from NFL.com.

Check out the best NFL Player Prop Bets every week of the season and be sure to also use Prop Bet Rankings to compare over/unders across popular categories.

Passing Props

Jayden Daniels OVER/UNDER 222.5 passing yards

The Commanders go as Daniels goes. He authors the passing game, obviously, but he’s also the best runner on the team, finishing 92 yards above Brian Robinson to lead Washington (891). Robinson played three less games than Daniels, but he also had 40 more carries; Daniels was their most impactful runner.

Daniels has played 17 full games when counting the two playoff games but disregarding Week 7 (when he threw just two passes) and Week 18 (when he played only the first half). In those contests, Daniels averaged over 240 passing yards per game with 29 touchdowns and just nine interceptions.

By that measure, it would seem like an easy win for the over, but the Eagles might be the best pass defense in the league. They allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt by a wide margin and just 192.1 yards per game.

Daniels was held down the first time these teams played, throwing for 191 yards at 6.0 per attempt. He threw one touchdown and one interception and ran for 18 yards, his second-lowest total of the season. It would be easy to think that the Eagles have Daniels figured out.

Well, it looked a little different in the rematch in Week 16: Jalen Hurts left with a concussion early in the game, but the Eagles were still able to put up 33 points. Daniels willed his team to victory, though, throwing for 258 yards and five touchdowns (with two interceptions) and running for another 81 yards.

He was still below average in yards per attempt in that game (6.6), but he threw 39 passes to help build volume. Daniels hasn’t come in under 225 yards in a full game since December 1 against the Titans, the only team to allow fewer passing yards than Philadelphia.

Philly’s defense is brutal to play against for any quarterback, and it’s tough to trust Daniels to rack up yards. As much as the over feels like the way to go, this could be one of his quieter games over the past few months.

Betting Advice: Stay away from this one but lean under if you go for it.

Jalen Hurts OVER/UNDER 179.5 passing yards

Hurts doesn’t have the passing volume of Daniels; he was under 3,000 yards this season (though he missed two games and most of another). Philadelphia’s run game, led by 2,000-yard rusher Saquon Barkley, controls things in most games, and Hurts contributes on the ground while protecting the football and making plays when needed.

He had his best efficiency numbers, though, putting up his top numbers in both completion percentage (68.7%) and yards per pass attempt (8.0). In his 16 full games (including two in the playoffs), Hurts averaged about 197 passing yards, well above his number here.

The Commanders were in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed. They gave up the fourth-least passing yards, but that came with facing the second-fewest attempts. I’ve been talking up the Washington defense as having completely turned around, but maybe it had to do with volume more than efficiency?

Hurts missed most of the second game in which these two faced off. In their first matchup, Hurts had 221 yards on 7.9 per attempt. His season average is higher than the line here, and his full game against Washington was even better: I feel good about Hurts with the over here.

Betting Advice: There’s plenty of intrigue in Hurts over 179.5 passing yards

Rushing Props

Saquon Barkley OVER/UNDER 125.5 rushing yards

Barkley ran for over 2,000 yards this season and has added 324 more in the playoffs. He has averaged 129.4 rushing yards in those 18 games. In the two games against Washington, Barkley recorded 146 and 150 yards on the ground.

Washington allowed the third-most yards per rush attempt and third-most total rushing yards during the regular season. Bucky Irving had a good day for Tampa Bay against the Commanders in the first round, going for 77 yards on 17 carries, and Jahmyr Gibbs turned 14 carries into 105 yards last week. And David Montgomery ran seven times for 28 yards. Oh, and receiver Jameson Williams took a reverse 61 yards for a touchdown.

Barkley has been explosive all season, and there’s not a lot of reason to think that will stop here. I love his over.

Betting Advice: Bet Barkley over 125.5 rushing yards

Brian Robinson Jr. OVER/UNDER 37.5 rushing yards

This seems like a low number given Robinson’s average. He was just over 57 yards per game this season, which is just a hair higher than his career number. This is more about the defense, though.

The Eagles allowed the ninth-least yards per rush attempt this season; they were 10th in total rushing yards allowed. Robinson had one decent game and one poor game against Philly this year:

• Week 11: 16 carries, 63 yards, 1 touchdown
• Week 16: 10 carries, 24 yards

This bet depends on how you see the game playing out: If you think Philadelphia will control things and make Daniels carry the load, you’re probably looking at the under. If you think Washington will have more luck and the ability to stay close and/or hold the lead, you are probably leaning toward the over.

It’s too much of a toss-up for me. Though the over looks appealing, I’m staying away from this one.

Betting Advice: The numbers say over, but my gut says don’t test the Eagles

Receiving Props

A.J. Brown OVER/UNDER 61.5 receiving yards

Brown was over this number in both games against Washington, getting 65 then 97 (and a touchdown). I made my case above that the Commanders might not be quite as stout as some of the numbers suggest. There are worse things than trusting a superstar at the biggest time of the year.

Betting Advice: Brown’s over is appealing

Zach Ertz OVER/UNDER 33.5 receiving yards

Like his teammates, Robinson and Daniels, Ertz split this number during the season, once going over and once under against Philadelphia (47 yards the first game, 12 the second).

We already talked about the Eagles being a great pass defense, and that extended to tight ends, who scored the second-least fantasy points against Philly. It’s tough to trust Ertz here.

Betting Advice: Ertz under 33.5 looks tasty. With a number this low, though, all it takes is one big catch to beat you, so it’s probably smart to stay away.

To Score a Touchdown

Jalen Hurts (-140): He ran for 14 touchdowns in 14 full games, and he has added two more in two playoff games. He’s dangerous enough to excel running on his own, and the Tush Push is just the cherry on top.

Touchdowns are random; Barkley is likely to score, but his odds are twice as bad as Hurts at -280. There’s just not much value there, especially when an injury could easily end his day early. I don’t love any other bet for a touchdown scorer.