AFC Championship Game Player Prop Bets: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Mack Hollins and More

Prop #1: Josh Allen, Anytime TD (-120)

There is no surprise here. Just about every week when we have the option, we bet on Allen to score a TD. It works out far more often than it doesn't.

Since Week 10, he's found the end zone in all but two games, including two in last week's playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills from top to bottom aren't as good as the Kansas City Chiefs, just like they didn't have the better roster last week. For them to win they need Allen to be otherworldly and he knows that.

That sometimes is incredible and sometimes it is awful. Nevertheless, it's how he has to play and how he's going to play. 

Prop #2: Patrick Mahomes, Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

This is a bet I like to make when Mahomes is in big playoff games. He finds ways and in these big games, he tends to break off game-changing runs and take off a bit more frequently, probably because it's worth the risk and he knows he has to do whatever it takes.

This isn't just a gut feeling either. His rushing numbers spike in the playoffs, including a spike to over 35 yards per game last season. 

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Prop #3: James Cook, Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-107)

Other than the quarterback, Cook is the only other standout player on this offense and has looked fantastic in the playoffs. The Bills need him to be great, so they have noticeably increased his workload and he hasn't disappointed.

Over the past two games, he's carried the ball 40 times. On a side note, the odds for him to carry the ball 15+ times in this game is -109 and we love that bet too.

Anyway, in those two playoff games, he's rushed for 187 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. That was against two solid defenses in Baltimore and Denver too. This should be a layup for him, even against a tough rush defense.    

Prop #4: Josh Allen, Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

We are back to the Superman argument and we love Allen rushing props. When things break down, he takes off, or often even when they don't break down.

This is a big number, but the Chiefs' defensive front is going to get after him and he will resort to running even more often than usual out of necessity. We also like his rushing attempts prop, which is sitting at 10+ with -119 odds.  

Prop #5: Khalil Shakir, Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

Shakir is the wide receiver I trust on this team to be guaranteed to even see targets and catch passes. The rest of these guys are as unpredictable as they come.

He's a low ceiling guy with a solid floor, which makes him perfect for these kinds of props. Consistency is king. In the last two weeks, he had six catches in each game with 61 yards in one game and 67 in the other. That's all you will need out of him and he's going to give it to you.

This is the only guy Allen can truly rely on to be open and catch a pass when they need to move the chains, or if he needs to get the ball out quickly. 

Prop #6: Isiah Pacheco, Over 39.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111)

Pacheco has been eased back into action, however, he now has had more time to heal and time to get back in the flow of NFL action for more than a month. This line has dropped low enough that I feel comfortable betting on it after betting against it every week since his return.

They are going to start using him more because they need him in this game and they will need him for the Super Bowl. This game will be much closer to an even split with Kareem Hunt than any other game as of late. I'm projecting him to have just under 10 carries and catch two passes. That will be enough to get it done. 

Longshot Prop: Mack Hollins, 2 TD Scorer (+7000)

Hollins scoring two TDs isn't a crazy idea at all. He's a big-bodied wideout who is a perfect end-zone target. I'd argue he's their best red-zone wideout.

Him catching two jump balls or even scoring on a long bomb is very much in the realm of possibilities. If you want to throw a few dollars on a bet with long odds this is the one to target.