NFL Draft Pick Value: Two Models That Help Us Evaluate Trades and Draft Value

How do you value a third-round pick in the NFL Draft versus a fourth- or fifth-round pick? How much does it matter being at the beginning of the round instead of the middle or end of the round? And how do teams decide what fair compensation is when trading picks before and during the draft?

That's a lot of questions, but luckily, we are here with a lot of answers. While there is no true catch-all draft value chart, there are two publicly available charts that are often used by analysts as stand-in values when projecting or evaluating draft trades.

The Jimmy Johnson draft chart was used most by teams before analytics started creeping their way over from baseball. The Johnson chart values the top pick as 3,000 points, the second pick 2,600, then 2,200, 1,800, and 1,700 to round out the top five. The value drops below 600 by the end of the first round and keeps decreasing until the final round picks are mostly all worth just one point apiece.

The Chase Stuart draft chart incorporates more analytical thinking and values lower picks more while also showing less of a drop in value between picks. The first pick by the Stuart chart is worth 34.6 points, descending through the top five to 30.2, 27.6, 25.8, and 24.3. The value reaches 0.1 by pick 224 in the seventh round, leaving most of the final round at that same value.

The Stuart chart values mid- and late-round picks more than the Johnson chart. That factors in the miniscule contracts those guys receive after being drafted and the ability to provide surplus value, even from modest players. Just looking at the top five picks, here is how much value is lost between each pick as a percentage.

Pick	JJ Points	% Drop from Previous	CS Points	% Drop from Previous
No. 1	3,000	0%	34.6	0%
No. 2	2,600	13.3%	30.2	12.7%
No. 3	2,200	15.4%	27.6	8.6%
No. 4	1,800	18.2%	25.8	6.5%
No. 5	1,700	5.6%	24.3	5.8%

As the list goes on, the percentages are closer because the difference begins dropping on the Johnson chart while staying more similar on the Stuart chart. Those later picks are already baked in with more value on the Stuart side because of the major drop at the top: the Johnson chart loses 43.3% of the top value by the fifth pick, while the Stuart chart has that difference as just 29.8%.

Trade Examples

All those numbers are great for math people, but they don't always mean a lot to those who aren't interested in that type of analysis. Real-world examples are easier for everyone to visualize when talking about the difference in trade value between the two charts.

Let's start with a few examples from the past two years then look at some reasonable projections for trades this year and what it could look like based on both charts.

Carolina Panthers get 2023 No. 1 (Bryce Young)

Chicago Bears get 2023 No. 9, 2023 No. 61, 2024 first-round pick, 2025 second-round pick, WR D.J. Moore

For future picks, it's generally fair to value them right in the middle of the round. For example, the 16th pick in the first round (halfway through) is worth 1,000 points (Johnson chart), so it would be fair to value that 2024 first as being worth 1,000. When Carolina's first rounder ended up as the first overall pick in 2024, the value of the pick tripled for the Bears.

Just based on the original trade without knowing the true value of the future picks, Carolina got 3,000 points of value on the Johnson chart while the Bears ended up with 3,062 points and Moore. This was a big win for Chicago even before ending up with Caleb Williams at the top of the 2024 draft.

On the Stuart chart, Carolina got 34.6 points, and Chicago got 55.8 points and Moore. It's even a bigger win based on the Stuart chart, again because those later picks are more highly valued compared to the top pick. This trade shows the premium that teams pay when moving up for a quarterback.

Chicago received 2% more draft value points plus Moore based on the Johnson chart; they dominated on the Stuart chart, walking away with 38% more value and a new top receiver.

Kansas City Chiefs get 2024 No. 28 (Xavier Worthy), 2024 No. 133 (fourth round), and 2024 No. 248 (seventh round)

Buffalo Bills get 2024 No. 32, 2024 No. 95 (third round), and 2024 No. 221 (seventh round)

The story after Buffalo allowed their conference rival to trade up for the fastest player in the draft was that they just handed Kansas City another conference championship and maybe Super Bowl. How did it play out in draft value, though?

The Chiefs received 700.5 points on the Johnson chart and the Bills 712.3 points. It was a modest win for Buffalo. Based on the Stuart chart, KC ended up with 17 points and Buffalo 18.3, another nice little win for the Bills. Buffalo ended up with 1.7% more points by the Johnson chart and 7.1% more points on the Stuart chart.

2025 Possible Trades

These aren't necessarily the most likely trades, but they are moves that could happen and help us to show how the draft value differs between the two charts.

Atlanta Falcons get 2025 No. 3

New York Giants get 2025 No. 15

In this scenario, the Giants would miss out on the top two quarterbacks (who are drafted with the first two picks) and have the choice to either take one of the top prospects or move back and add more value, maybe with the goal of grabbing another QB a little later. Atlanta would be coming up to pick pass rusher Abdul Carter, maybe the consensus top player in this draft who would address their biggest need.

The difference in points between the third and 15th picks based on the Johnson chart is 1,150 points. A fair trade could be completed by Atlanta sending their 2026 first rounder (1,000 points) and their 2025 second-round pick (No. 46, 445 points), while the Giants send back to Atlanta their third rounder (No. 65, 265 points). That would give the Giants a win by 25 points (the value of the 166th pick in the fifth round).

Using the Stuart chart, the difference between No. 3 and No. 15 is 10.2 points. Atlant's No. 46 pick is worth exactly 10.2 and could make this a perfect trade by draft value. It's reasonable to think the Giants would want a little surplus value for moving back from a premium spot and passing up on the top prospect in the draft, so maybe the Falcons would also include their fourth rounder (No. 118, 4.2 points) or a third- or fourth-round pick in 2026.

If the Giants were insistent on next year's first rounder, the trade could be Atlanta sending that 2026 first while the Falcons returned a 2026 third-round pick, a deal that would be nearly perfect by the Stuart chart.

Las Vegas Raiders get 2025 No. 4

New England Patriots get 2025 No. 6

This is a possibility if there is still a quarterback on the board at the fourth pick and Vegas wants to pounce. They just traded for Geno Smith, but that only cost a third-round pick, and Smith is in the last year of his contract. That shouldn't be enough to stop them if they think Colorado's Shedeur Sanders is the guy.

By the Johnson chart, this is just a 200-point difference and could be completed by the Raiders giving the Patriots their other third-round pick (No. 68, 250 points) and receiving back a 2026 fourth-round pick from the Pats.

The Stuart chart has a difference of just 2.6 points, a value that could be made up by the Raiders sending New England their fifth rounder at No. 143 (which is worth three points). Because this trade would include moving up for a quarterback, the Raiders might have to pay an extra premium, but these trades work by the numbers.

You can see how much more valuable those later picks are by the Stuart chart. If the teams made the last trade (a fifth-round pick heading back to New England), a more analytical team could be happy with the return, while an old-school team that uses the Johnson chart would see it as a major underpay.

That is why analysts who grade trades will sometimes see it majorly in favor of one team and wonder why the other franchise would even consider the trade. Different teams use different models to value draft picks, so it's more about finding common ground than using any exact draft chart.

Conclusion

That last point is important. These are just two public methods of valuing draft picks and do not reflect the insights of any specific team. You can learn more about teams by previous trades that they have made or just past moves made by the league that set a precedent.

Trades are often the most fun part of the draft, and it makes sense to have a way to value them more efficiently. Following the Johnson and Stuart charts is helpful for the exercise of grading and evaluating trades in real time, but don't take them as gospel as to how teams should operate.