Ottawa Senators Fantasy Hockey Spotlight - Part 1 | In-Depth Analysis and Overview

The Ottawa Senators. What are they? Well currently they are fighting for a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, and are one point back. Last night they beat the Toronto Maple Leafs. Again. How is it they continually win the battle of Ontario against the Maple Leafs who are first in the division?

Let’s call a spade a spade here. How many years have we said prior to the season starting: “If the Senators could just get “X” they would be condenders!” or “The core is going to take a step forward this year, and they will be a playoff team!” While they’ve continued to add assets, they also continue to be stagnant. Could this be the last year of looking in from the outside? I think so.

Like this team has all the tools to be successful, and this was reinforced this summer by figuring out their netminder, so what is the hurdle they are seemingly unable to leap over? They have a lot of legitimate producing players for your fantasy team, so why can’t they put it all together?

In another two-part series, there is again just way too much to unpack with the Senators for one sitting. Today we’ll take an overall look at where the team is and try to answer some of these questions, and tomorrow we will do a breakdown of this talent-filled roster and who should be on your radar and why.

Statistical Analysis

Again, the Senators are a baffling team. They have 54 points in the standings which is good enough for fifth in their division, and only one point behind the Tampa Bay Lightning, who currently hold the second wild card spot in the east.

What’s wild (I mean crazy, not Minnesota) is there is the tightest race in recent history for playoff contention in the east. With both wild card teams having 55 points, and all the way down to ninth is only seven points out. This means that out of the ten teams fighting for a wild card spot in the east, nine are technically still in it going into the trade deadline. 

The team in ninth, surprisingly is Sidney Crosby’s Pittsburgh Penguins at 48 points. And this is with the woes they suffered at the hands (or lack there of) of Tristan Jarry.

What does this mean for the Senators? They legitimately have a shot to get into the playoffs, and once they start having players return from their lengthy injury list. 

Let’s take a look at that list now.

Injury Report

Linus Ullmark is the most noteworthy player on the IR for the Senators. He is the goalie of the now and future for the franchise, after acquiring him in the offseason from the Boston Bruins. While he had a shaky start to the season, he settled in and started some exceptional backstopping in net for them and prior to his injury around Christmas. 

Luckily for the Senators, both Anton Forsberg and Leevi Merilainen have been providing decent relief.

Ullmark has 12 wins in his 22 starts, giving a .915 save percentage, 2.38 goals against average, and three shutouts. Given the start he had this year, that is a pretty good recovery on numbers and given his expected return, that is expected potentially this week, this would give the Sens a huge bump in confidence in the crease.

On the blueline the Senators are missing both Jacob Bernard-Docker and more recently Nick Jensen. While neither of these has a direct impact on your fantasy roster, because neither of them are particularly rosterable even as a streamer, the impact on the roster has potential ripple effects that will bleed into statistics that matter to you such as wins, or +/-.

Bernard-Docker is scheduled to return to the lineup in late February and has an underwhelming 21 hits and 25 blocked shots in 25 games played. His points production might as well be non-existent.

Jensen, on the other hand, has three goals, 15 assists, but excellent peripherals for what he is, putting up 57 shots on goal, 41 hits, and 58 blocked shots. Also of note, somehow is he a +15 with his +/- rating.

Moving to the forwards, missing from the lineup we have Nick Cousins, Cole Reinhardt, and Noah Gregor. Again, none of these players are rosterable as a streamer, but the effect up and down the lineup will hurt your goaltender and other peripheral stats.

To quickly summarize, Cousins has only five goals, eight assists, but somehow has a decent 63 shots on goal, 80 hits, and 24 blocked shots. He is scheduled to return in the first week of February.

Neither Reinhardt and Gregor have any stats that are noteworthy. They both play in depth roles. Gregor is the far better player of the two, but he has only put up four goals, two assists, 42 shots on goal, and 67 hits if you were curious. Put that into perspective for your rostered fantasy league players.

Firepower and Closing Thoughts

Let’s be honest here. The Senators do have a lot of firepower up front, decent blueline options, a real starting goaltender, and serviceable backups. So what is their problem?

Tomorrow we will get into the nitty gritty on these players, but let’s keep in mind that the captain is Brady Tkachuk - an absolute beast on the ice, and a bangers league dream. Up front he is supported by the likes of Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, and veteran presence Claude Giroux. Also noteworthy is Josh Norris who is technically out, but is practicing in a full contact jersey and will return this week, so we are lumping him with the in-game firepower list, instead of the injured players.

On the blueline we have Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot. Arguably you could throw Artem Zub in there, but you’re not likely going to have Zub on your fantasy roster. Plus as mentioned before between the pipes we have Ullmark, Forsberg, and in the system up and coming (maybe faster than anticipated) Merilainen.

On paper, we have an excellent mix. One could argue the perfect recipe for a successful rebuild. You have a passionate hard nosed captain willing to put his body on the line for the team, one who also comes from a well known and respected hockey family. His brother Matthew Tkachuk is a fellow first-round pick, and defending Stanley Cup Champion. His father Keith Tkachuk was also a first round pick and a fierce competitor. Brady is clearly surrounded by champion pedigree support that he needs to take forward into his locker room and lead his team to success.

The Senators have veteran grit in former Philadelphia Flyers captain Giroux, and young generational talent such as Stutzle. They also have world class goaltending. All of these players are well isolated by decent depth and a mix of young and grizzled players alike. 

If they could just get all of this to click, players on the Senators' team would go from fighting for a playoff spot to serious contenders. And with being a contender will come a greater fantasy rosterabe threshold to stack wins, similar to the Colorado Avalanche or the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Are they one playoffs berth away from pulling it all together? Genuinely, I think so. Tomorrow we will dive deep into who this team has to deploy, and how they will help your fantasy roster deep into the playoffs, and challenge your other league managers for a spot at the top.