Underdog Fantasy NBA Basketball Pick 'Em Props (01/10/23): SGA, LaMelo Ball & More!
Underdog is back with their Pick ‘Em bets for the NBA season. We will be going over the best bets for tonight and help give you the edge to make some money tonight and every Tuesday night. This should be a fun slate of games so let’s take advantage of some great odds.
Underdog Fantasy NBA Props To Target
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers (28.0 Points)
We all know Mitchell can have big blowup games. We just saw him score 71 the other night. Which is most likely why this line is set where it’s at tonight. While he can have massive games that’s not what he consistently does and it’s smart to bet against him because those big games inflate his prop bet numbers. If you exclude the 71-point game, he has scored higher than 28 points just once in the past nine games, and the last time he did it was December 21.
He faces a Jazz’ defense that is ranked 24th in the league in points per game which isn’t great. However, they are a Jazz’ defense that just held him to 23 points last month. What this comes down to is the consistency just isn’t there with Mitchell as of late and if you bet against him you’re going to win most of the time. If you want a larger sample size, he’s only cleared this bar in six of his last 18 games. So, if you’ve bet against him every game since Thanksgiving you would have won 2/3 of the time.
The Pick: Lower 28.0 Points
Mike Conley, Utah Jazz (10.5 Points)
On the other side of the court, we have Conley trying to get to 11 points and he’s another one we don’t see getting there. Now at 35 years old, he is well past his prime and he’s just not getting it done anymore from a scoring standpoint. That’s not to say he can’t distribute, play solid defense and bring veteran leadership, but he just doesn’t put the ball through the hoop anymore. He has gone three straight without scoring double-digit points and has only hit this mark three times in his last 14 games. His average on the year is only 10 points per game so it’s odd the line is this high in this matchup.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are giving up the fewest points per game this season and have the best defensive rating. These teams played just last month as well, and Conley put up just seven points. It’s not clear why Underdog believes this game will be any different. Not only do they believe he will score more in this game than last time, but that he will also exceed his average output against the best defense in the league. This is a line you have to take advantage of.
The Pick: Lower 10.5 Points
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets (22.5 Points)
Now let’s head in a more positive direction with guys who we think can surpass their betting lines tonight. Only scoring 13 points in his last game has driven down this line and you need to jump on it. Scoring 23 points is an easy bar to clear for Melo and he’s proven it by doing it with ease over and over. Prior to his subpar game on Sunday night, he had hit this mark in five straight and in 13 of his last 14 games. You can’t ask for much more consistency than that. The only reason his numbers were so low in the last game was that he only played 25 minutes and he averages over 34 minutes per game. This month he had averaged over 36 before Sunday. We should see his minutes back to where they usually are tonight.
The matchup against the Raptors isn’t great, nevertheless, we just gave you a 14-game sample size and he cleared this bar against plenty of better defenses during that stretch. Toronto is ranked ninth in points allowed and 13th in the NBA in defensive rating. They aren’t a team to go out of your way to target, but they also shouldn’t scare you away on great odds like this.
The Pick: Higher 22.5 Points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (29.5 Points)
SGA has been great this season and over the past couple of seasons has established himself as a budding superstar. He has a tough matchup against the Heat tonight, but I’m going with the player over the matchup here. He’s averaging 30.9 points per game on the season and has been hot since the calendar changed clearing this line in all three games in January. Despite Miami giving up the second-fewest points per game in the NBA this season, we are going to ride with the hot hand. We are riding with SGA here against a Heat team that has been struggling a bit as of late including giving up 120+ points in two of their last six.
The Pick: Higher 29.5 Points
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