Finding the Top Week 13 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Jonnu Smith, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Gus Edwards
Ted breaks down the hottest waiver wire pickups for Week 13 as identified by FantasySP's predictive analytics.
Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.
Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you judge what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices.
The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:
This week, we have an interesting set of options. Normally, the leaders in EWI are widely available players, but I guess the holiday season has made fantasy managers optimistic — multiple of the top names are players already rostered in the vast majority of leagues (and many of them should be rostered in 100% of leagues). I will take a look at those players, as well as breaking down some more under-the-radar options who are more likely to be available. Let’s get started!
Top Predicted Week 13 Fantasy Football Adds
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (43% EWI)
Waddle is already rostered in over 90% of fantasy leagues. The fact that he is available anywhere is wild, but it makes more sense when you consider how truly brutal his fantasy production had been coming into Week 12 (6.4 Half-PPR points per game). However, Waddle’s Week 12 explosion (eight catches on nine targets for 144 yards and a touchdown) is a good reminder that he is still one of the most talented young receivers in the league. If he’s available in your league, send the house.
TE Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins (32% EWI)
Next, we come to the player who is a large part of the reason that Waddle’s season has been so unproductive, as Jonnu Smith has established himself as one of the top options in Miami’s passing attack. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8, Jonnu actually leads the Dolphins’ pass-catchers (above both Waddle and Tyreek Hill) with a 20% target share. He has turned that usage into 12.3 Half-PPR points per game, an elite number for the TE position. Coming off his second straight top-three weekly finish, Jonnu is a top-priority add if you are looking for TE help.
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans (31% EWI)
On the one hand, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is the WR14 in Half-PPR scoring over the last seven weeks. On the other hand, he is averaging just 2.7 receptions per game on a 14% target share over that span — the vast majority of his scoring has come from his six touchdowns in the last seven weeks, including a 98-yard bomb in Week 11 and a 38-yard score on Sunday.
To be fair, NWI’s target share is trending upwards, with marks of 16% and 20% over the last two weeks. He has also posted an absolutely elite 88% route participation rate since Week 8. I wouldn’t expect NWI to be a consistent weekly play (he has to stop scoring TDs eventually), but he’s a reasonable deep-league flex option.
TE Noah Gray, Kansas City Chiefs (31% EWI)
This is the definition of points-chasing. Thanks primarily to four receiving touchdowns, Gray has finished as a top-five fantasy TE in each of the last two weeks. But his role is still roughly the same as it was in the first 10 weeks of the season, in which he averaged 3.6 Half-PPR points per game. In Week 12, he ran a route on just 48.9% of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks — that’s not close to enough to be useable. Unless you’re in the market for a tight end handcuff (which you probably shouldn’t be), Gray can safely be left on the waiver wire.
WR Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns (27% EWI)
The Browns’ offense under Jameis Winston came back to Earth last Thursday, thanks to both the Steelers’ defense and a very snowy second half. Winston went from throwing at least 40 times in each of his first three starts to attempting just 27 passes. As a result, the Browns’ receivers, who had been thriving as a group with Winston under center, had down outings across the board.
However, Jeudy still led the team with a 22% target share, catching all six of his targets for a team-high 85 yards. Overall, since Amari Cooper left, Jeudy has averaged 11.6 Half-PPR points per game on a 19% target share. If we look at just games with Jameis under center, those numbers jump to 14.0 and 22%. That is absolutely good enough for him to be worth adding in all formats.
QB Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (24% EWI)
I do think Derek Carr deserves more respect for how he has played this season (and throughout his career). PFF Grades aren’t everything, but he is the third-highest-graded QB so far this season, behind only Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. From a fantasy perspective, he put up at least 18.7 points in both of his last two games, with Taysom Hill and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as his top two targets.
With all that said, Carr isn’t hugely exciting as a fantasy option. His receiving weapons aren’t about to get any better, and he doesn’t add any value with his legs. By playing well, Carr has simply cemented his status as one of many fringe QB1 pocket-passer options, all of whom can be started in the right matchups. With that in mind, my recommendation for Carr (in 1-QB leagues) is this: If you plan on playing him in Week 13, absolutely add him. Otherwise, don’t bother — he doesn’t really have the long-term upside to be worth stashing.
WR Devaughn Vele, Denver Broncos (24% EWI)
I already gave my thoughts on Vele in my Week 13 Wide Receiver Waiver Wire breakdown, but here is the short version: The seventh-round rookie still isn’t running quite enough routes to be a reliable option, but his per-route usage and recent production are both very encouraging. He racked up nine targets (catching six for 80 yards) on Sunday despite posting just a 55% participation rate. For the season, he leads the Broncos in both yards per route run and PFF Receiving Grade. When a rookie is flashing like this, they are absolutely worth adding and stashing in deeper formats … now we just need Sean Payton to let him lose.
TE Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints (23% EWI)
If he is still available in your league, Taysom is an absolute must-add. He has always had arguably the highest weekly upside of any player designated as a TE, as he showed in Week 11. But, since Darren Rizzi took over as New Orleans’ head coach, he has also seen enough usage as a traditional pass-catcher to have a respectable floor.
In two weeks under Rizzi, Taysom has averaged a 22% target share on a 58% route participation rate. A 22% target share on its own would be enough to make him a streaming TE option. Add in his unicorn usage in the rushing and passing games, and he has a real chance to be not just a TE1 but the TE1 for the rest of the season.
WR Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Radiers (21% EWI)
Meyers is another player who is already widely rostered but worth checking for, just in case. If he is available in your league, he is a must-add and someone you can plug right into your lineup if needed. In games without Davante Adams, the veteran receiver is averaging a 24.5% target share. If maintained for the season, that number would land him 16th in the NFL, just ahead of Drake London and Ja’Marr Chase. Even on a bad Raiders offense, Meyers can have value as long as he and Brock Bowers continue combining for over half of the team’s targets.
RB Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers (19% EWI)
Don’t expect Edwards to be this low of a priority when Week 13’s waivers actually run. I imagine that this number will continue to rise as the Fantasy Assistant responds to J.K. Dobbins suffering a knee injury in last night’s game for the Chargers. We haven’t yet gotten an update on Dobbins’ status, so hopefully he is good to go. But if he were to miss time, Edwards would suddenly be a valuable fantasy option.
As much as fantasy managers are more excited by rookie Kimani Vidal, Edwards is clearly the Chargers’ favorite non-Dobbins rusher. And the veteran has actually been decently efficient since his return from injury — he is never going to be explosive, but he gets the job done. If Dobbins is sidelined, that should be enough for him to rack up fantasy points in Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman’s offense. This is especially true given that the Chargers have top-10 matchups by adjusted fantasy points allowed in all three weeks of the fantasy playoffs. Edwards could legitimately be a league-winner if Dobbins is done for the season, so don’t be afraid to blow the last of your FAAB budget on him.
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.