NBA Props Jan. 3: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tyrese Haliburton, Jarrett Allen and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Another day, another group of NBA players ready to have a big night. This is NOT a list of winners; it is simply a collection of good matchups with reason to think the players will go over. Anything can happen in any game. Take these stats and opinions along with your own analysis and research before placing any wagers.

Advanced stats and pace numbers are from NBA.com. Defensive rankings against positions are from FantasySP and Fantasy Pros. Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Jan. 3.

 

Jarrett Allen, C Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards

OVER/UNDER 19.5 Points, 12.5 Rebounds, 31.5 Points+Rebounds

I go through it every day they play, so let’s do this quick. The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the league and they’re terrible defensively, especially against big men. Washington allows the most points per game and rebounds per game to centers.

These numbers are asking Allen to go over his averages (14.4 PPG, 9.3 RPG) by a decent amount. It is enough to scare some people off, and I can understand the hesitancy: Every bet should feel good when you make it, otherwise it’s probably better to step away.

Cleveland has been without fellow big man Evan Mobley for a while, though, and will be missing score-first guard Darius Garland, so there is more to go around for Allen. Given the matchup and how teams have torn apart the Wizards down low, these numbers are more-than-attainable for Allen.

Confidence Ratings for Allen

OVER 19.5 Points: 3 out of 5

OVER 12.5 Rebounds: 5 out of 5

OVER 31.5 Points+Rebounds: 4 out of 5

 

Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers

OVER/UNDER 36.5 Points, 12.5 Rebounds, 50.5 Points+Rebounds

These teams just played on Monday, and Giannis finished with 30 points and 18 rebounds. He has been dominant in all four games against the Pacers this season, averaging more than 40 points and 12 rebounds per game.

Indiana plays almost as fast as Washington, and they allow the most points per game and ninth-most rebounds per game to power forwards. Given the great matchup and the success Giannis has enjoyed, I’m not over-thinking this one.

These numbers are pretty high; it’s scary to expect any player to hit these heights, even someone as productive as Giannis (30.9 PPG, 11.3 RPG). Given the way he has performed against Indiana, though, and their lack of defensive prowess, I still feel good about his chances tonight.

Confidence Ratings for Giannis

OVER 36.5 Points: 4 out of 5

OVER 12.5 Rebounds: 4 out of 5

OVER 50.5 Points+Rebounds: 4 out of 5

 

Tyrese Haliburton, PG Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

OVER/UNDER 26.5 Points

In the same game from New Year’s Day, Haliburton finished with 26 points and 11 assists. He has been near those numbers over the four previous matchups with Milwaukee and should come in around the same mark again today.

Milwaukee is fast in their own right, playing at the league’s fourth-fastest pace. They are giving up the second-most points per game to guards and the third-most to point guards.

Haliburton is the engine that makes the Pacers go, and he will have every chance to top this number. Though it is a little over his season average (24.7), Milwaukee is a great matchup for point guards, and Haliburton has reached these heights against them before.

Confidence Ratings for Haliburton OVER 26.5 Points: 4 out of 5

 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks

OVER/UNDER 34.5 Points

The Thunder play fast: They are seventh fastest team in the league. Atlanta is even faster: They are fifth. This is a game that will get up and down and have a lot of possessions for both teams. That bolds well for Gilgeous-Alexander, the superstar point guard.

Atlanta allows the eighth-most points per game to guards. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray are great offensive players, but they don’t offer a lot of resistance at the point of attack. SGA is the man most likely to capitalize.

This number asking him to go above his scoring average (31.2 PPG) but given the matchup and speed at which this game will move, he will have plenty of opportunities to excel and hit the over.

Confidence Rating for Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 34.5 Points: 4 out of 5