Five Questions About the Luka Doncic, Anthony Davis Trade: Can the Lakers, Mavericks Win the Championship?

If you’re like me and, apparently, most other people, you haven’t really paid much attention to the NBA yet. The trade deadline is usually a point of intrigue, but it often comes and goes with no major movement, just pieces around the edges.

Well, the whole league was just thrown into the blender: Luka Doncic was sent to the Los Angeles Lakers, with Anthony Davis and a first-round pick returning to the Mavs. There are more pieces to the trade, including a player and two picks going to the Utah Jazz, but the rest is just fodder. This is the biggest trade in a generation; at least.

There are so many questions, the most important of which won’t be answered until the end of the season (or even further). Let’s look at five that jump out, including what we can expect from each team the rest of the season. (This will exclude the Jazz, who are rebuilding.)

Why did Dallas feel the need to trade Doncic?

After reaching the NBA Finals last season, it seems inconceivable that the Mavericks would think their best way forward is without their best player. Early reports said that Dallas wasn’t happy with his “conditioning and ability to stay healthy,” something that would seem to get worse with age.

I have been complaining about Doncic for a few years, even while liking him and his style of offensive play. He often seems to not even try on defense, standing while guys drive around him or run wide open off screens. He complains to the refs about every call. Every call. EVERY CALL. (Maybe not every one, but well over 95%; there are links to three different videos there, if you didn’t notice.)

But he’s still a generational offensive talent with parts of Magic Johnson, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Larry Bird, Kobe Bryant, and others to his game. To trade someone like Doncic risks being the team that gave up Babe Ruth. When the Milwaukee Bucks traded Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to the Lakers in June 1975, they didn’t win another title for 45 years.

That’s not because of any curse; it’s because players of that caliber don’t come around very often. When a team has a true super-duper-star, they must do everything to capitalize on finding ways to win championships.

Dallas had been doing that, making moves at last year’s deadline that helped lead to the deep playoff run. While this doesn’t necessarily take them out of the championship hunt, it’s much harder to win without a guy like Doncic than it is with him.

Why didn’t they get more in return?

Health wouldn’t seem to be a determining factor when considering that Davis was their major return asset: in 11 full seasons (not counting this year or the COVID season), Davis has averaged 63.6 games per season. He’s missing about 20 games per year. It’s even worse in his time with the Lakers, where he has averaged 58.5 games played (excluding the COVID year).

Defense is a different story, though. Another rumor being reported is that the team wanted to improve their defense, something that could very well be helped with the addition of Davis. I mentioned above about the perception of Doncic’s defensive effort, and while that’s mostly colloquial, Davis on the floor will mean more than Doncic on the floor defensively.

Dallas ranks 12th in defensive rating, an OK number but maybe not a championship-level mark. They were just 18th last year but rose to fifth during the playoffs. It’s possible they could have made another jump this year, but the team obviously thought it was time to make a change.

It seems like they could have gotten way more from the Lakers, though. Other than Davis, the Mavs received LA’s 2029 first-round pick and guard Max Christie. Christie was the 35th pick in 2022 and has averaged 5.1 points and hit 37.5% of his 3-pointers in 153 games. He’s a young bench guy who is about to turn 22; that’s a fine player to get in a trade.

The Lakers also have recent first rounder Dalton Knecht, though, a player with much more potential and a proven ability to score and shoot at an NBA level. Los Angeles can also trade one more first-round pick and multiple swaps, so Dallas left a lot on the table.

Did any other teams know Doncic was available?

This came out of nowhere, so it’s fair to wonder how much negotiating Dallas did. We just talked about their underwhelming return; another team surely could have matched this value. The Mavs may have wanted to finish things quickly before rumors started swirling, but it seems foolish to forgo value for confidentiality in a world in which news travels like wildfire.

No doubt, 28 other teams would have enjoyed a chance to go to the negotiating table with the chance to land Doncic. Dallas could have gotten a collection of draft picks and/or young talent from a team who has been stockpiling assets, like the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Just looking at OKC, they have Chet Holmgren, another defensive big man who can step out and shoot the three better than Davis and is also much younger, probably offering greater future potential. That doesn’t mean he’ll definitely ever be better than Davis at his best, but Holmgren’s total value moving forward will likely be higher than that of Davis. Holmgren and a bunch of picks sounds like a better deal (though matching contract numbers could have been tricky).

Can the Lakers win the championship this year?

They currently sit in fifth place in the Western Conference, just two games above the play-in and five games from being out of the playoffs. Either with or without this trade, LA was going to make the playoffs. This is about their ceiling; how high can they grow?

They rank 21st in defensive rating, only about a point from the middle. They are a little better on the offensive side but, again, right near average, ranking 13th. While we don’t know the effects this trade will have while the team coalesces, it wouldn’t be surprising if the overall change was better on offense and worse on defense.

That plays into what they already had, and it would likely leave them with a top-10 offense and a bottom-10 defense. Is that a blueprint that can win? Here are the rankings for each of the past 10 champions in both offensive and defensive rating in the regular season:

• 2023-24 Boston Celtics: 1st in offense, 2nd in defense
• 2022-23 Denver Nuggets: 5th in offense, 15th in defense
• 2021-22 Golden State Warriors: 16th in offense, 2nd in defense
• 2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks: 5th in offense, 9th in defense
• 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers: 11th in offense, 3rd in defense
• 2018-19 Toronto Raptors: 5th in offense, 5th in defense
• 2017-18 Golden State Warriors: 3rd in offense, 11th in defense
• 2016-17 Golden State Warriors: 1st in offense, 2nd in defense
• 2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers: 3rd in offense, 10th in defense
• 2014-15 Golden State Warriors: 2nd in offense, 1st in defense

The clear theme is that every team was in the top five in at least one aspect and at least league average on the other side of the ball. The best teams were at the top in both. The Lakers are currently about four points shy of the top five in offense in addition to being a point short of average on defense.

It’s conceivable they could reach those marks but not if the team declines on defense, as we are projecting here. The other thing those 10 teams had in common is that they had a super-duper-star (one of LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic, or Jayson Tatum). LA now has two of them, though LeBron can’t be counted on for full-time play at that level at his age.

The team also isn’t fully set. Further trades and the buyout market are still to come, and the Lakers could make more moves to improve their defensive outlook and get to a championship caliber. I would currently say the Lakers have a puncher’s chance, much like last year’s Mavericks.

Can Dallas make another Finals run built around Davis and Kyrie Irving?

The Mavs are eighth on offense and 12th on D. That’s a profile that could have again led to deep playoff run, as they are only about 2.5 points from fifth place on offense. This trade absolutely shakes up their profile with the potential to tank their offense right away.

Doncic initiated a huge portion of the offense. He is tied for 10th in usage rate and has been a top-10 player in that category each of the past five seasons. Davis ranks 17th, and Irving isn’t in the top 60. Irving’s rate will surely increase, and Davis’ could increase or (maybe more likely) stay about the same.

Improving into the top 10 in defense would be a meaningful jump. They are currently only about three points from the top five in defensive rating, a mark that would put them in championship contention based on our data in the previous section. There is intrigue.

Like the Lakers, this roster might not be settled. Another move could be coming to change the roster. As currently constructed, though, this doesn’t look like a true contender. I don’t trust Davis’ ability to stay healthy, and changing the whole feel of the team midseason probably won’t make things any easier.

The numbers say they could get there, but there’s not much evidence of a team making a move THIS big during the season and going on to win the championship. I’d give Dallas a puncher’s chance (much like last year) if their defense reaches that elite level, but that knockout punch lost some power with the loss of Doncic.