NFL Wild Card Round Playoff Preview: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
This year’s NFL playoffs feature a few intra-divisional battles, and we’ll be coming out of the gate with one from the NFC West on Saturday afternoon. The surprising Seattle Seahawks (9-8) will be visiting their divisional rival San Francisco 49ers (13-4), and they’ll have their work cut out for them after losing both of their matchups to the 49ers this year.
NFL Best Bets
A lot of pundits had the Seahawks battling for the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, so it’s a borderline shocker that they’re in the playoffs. Even more surprising has been the fact that Geno Smith has looked like a top-15 NFL quarterback this season as he finished with 4,282 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, and just 11 interceptions. Kenneth Walker made a late charge for Offensive Player of the Year, and the Seahawks also look to have found multiple future starters in the 2022 draft class. Regardless of what happens this weekend, things seem to be looking up for Seattle for next year and beyond.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers finished with a record in the ballpark of where many thought they’d finish – but their season hasn’t come without twists and turns. They’re currently starting rookie Brock Purdy at quarterback, and he’s their THIRD starting quarterback this season after losing both Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo to season-ending injuries. They also lost starting running back Elijah Mitchell to injury twice this season (though he’s back now), losing Deebo Samuel for a few weeks due to injury, traded running back Jeff Wilson Jr., and traded for difference-maker Christian McCaffrey. It’s been a circuitous route, but the 49ers are well-positioned to make a Super Bowl run.
The Seahawks face an uphill battle on the road as they lost both matchups to the 49ers this year, including a 27-7 drubbing in Week 2 and a closer 21-13 loss just four weeks ago. While that latter loss looks better, that was also Brock Purdy’s first NFL start and he was hurt.
Divisional matchups in the playoffs are always tricky because it’s the third time the teams have faced each other in the year and familiarity can often lead to unpredictability. But the 49ers are just too good to doubt this week. Could Brock Purdy look like a rookie? Absolutely. Is the rest of the 49ers roster (including their league-best defense) good enough to make up for that? Also absolutely.
Anything can happen on any given Sunday, but there’s just too much talent on the 49ers roster to overcome here. I like them to win by at least 10 at home, and I think there will be enough points scored (by both teams!) to smash the 42-point total that we’re looking at. While there isn’t a ton of upside in betting the 49ers this week, I still think that’s the smart (and that’s putting it lightly) play on all accounts.
The Picks:
Spread: San Francisco 49ers -9.5 (-109)
Over/Under: Over 42.0 (-110)
Moneyline: San Francisco 49ers (-490)
Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: Elijah Mitchell, Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Christian McCaffrey looms large here, but this is a low enough total that I like Mitchell to be used more in the rushing attack while McCaffrey serves as a passing outlet for Purdy. I also think the game script should work well in Mitchell’s favor to the point where he’s seeing enough end-of-game carries to ice the win for the 49ers. Mitchell has surpassed this total in two of his last three games and he hasn’t seen more than 10 carries in any of those games! If you look at our Prop Bet Rankings tool, this is the tool’s favorite prop bet for this game, and I can see why.
Prop #2: Brandon Aiyuk, Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
One of my two worries here is that the 49ers won’t pass a ton if they’re winning, but they’ll likely have to pass to get the lead so I’m not that worried. The other worry is the presence of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, but Aiyuk has seen an average of eight targets a game over his last three and has put up an average of just over 80 yards in those three games. That’s more than enough to smash this total, and this is a bet I’ll be going all-in on.
Prop #3: Tyler Lockett, Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Our prop bet tool doesn’t like this one as much as I do (Lockett is only projected at 69.5 yards there), but it still gets us to where we need to be and I have some further logic I’d like to explain. As you’ve read, I think the Seahawks will be playing catchup in this game, so that helps Lockett. I’m also liking the fact that he saw seven targets last week and looks fully healthy after missing a few weeks. With the 49ers rushing defense being as tough as it is, I think Lockett has a good chance to come close to seeing double-digit targets, which would make this bet a very very safe one if I’m right.
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