Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Outlook: Will Justin Herbert Bounce Back?

The Chargers went to the playoffs last season, only to lose in embarrassing fashion to the Jaguars. They have as much skill as any roster around the league, the question is can they stay healthy and will they live up to their lofty expectations?

QB Justin Herbert

Herbert wasn’t bad last season, but he definitely underperformed and was over-drafted. This year though, you should expect a bounce-back performance, and here is why. Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams battled injuries last season, and chances are they won’t be as injured this season, however, even if they are, Josh Palmer has another year of experience under his belt and the Chargers drafted Quentin Johnston in the first round this season, further bolstering their WR depth. Herbert also has a new offensive coordinator, former Cowboys coordinator Kellen Moore who had tremendous success with a Cowboys offense that is built similarly to the Chargers. Herbert’s TD rate dropped last season as did his pass yards per attempt, but expect both to get back to career norms or even surpass them. 

RB Austin Ekeler

Ekeler is a late first-round or early second-round pick this season in fantasy. He is one of the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL and even at the age of 28, he is expected to see the majority of touches in the Chargers backfield. He should finish the season in the top 5 at the position and has the potential to be number one or two overall. The only reasons why Ekeler may fall out of round one in drafts are his age and the fact that with a new offensive coordinator in town, his usage in the passing game could take a hit. The Chargers were one of the top teams in the league last year when it came to targeting the RB in the passing game, while the Cowboys were in the bottom 3rd of the league in each of the past two seasons. 

RB Joshua Kelley and RB Isaiah Spiller

One of these two guys is going to get an opportunity to get carries in this backfield, but more importantly, be the main handcuff to Ekeler. Kelly established himself as that guy toward the end of the 2022 season and could see additional workload earlier in the season if the Chargers decide to not run Ekeler into the ground too early. Kellen Moore successfully navigated a backfield in Dallas that allowed for two RBs to be fantasy relevant, so if Kelly does win the backup job, he will have some value. He will have to beat out Spiller for the right to be the handcuff and backup. Spiller is going to have to show vast improvements to even challenge Kelley for the backup role. Spiller averaged under three yards per carry in 2022 and will need a significant injury in this backfield in order to have re-draft value. 

WR Keenan Allen

There has never been a question about talent when it comes to Allen. The issue with him has always been injuries and his inability to stay on the field. He is 31 years old now, and although his production hasn’t dipped, he is arguably more prone to injuries because of his age. He should be taken towards the end of round 3 or early to middle of round 4 because he is a receptions monster. Allen is a lock for over 1,000 yards, when healthy, as he is the clear number 1 target in the passing game, even with all the other talent on the roster. 

WR Mike Williams

Just like with Allen, Williams’ skill set and upside have never been in doubt. It is his inability to play a full season, or even close to a full season that has kept him from being a top 15 WR year after year. Even when he is suiting up, it seems like he is always dealing with a nagging injury that keeps him from being 100% or from being able to finish the game. It is incredibly frustrating to roster a player like that, and although someone will likely take a gamble on him earlier, he shouldn’t be drafted before round 7, especially with the addition of Quentin Johnston and the fact that Williams has dealt with a back injury already and the Chargers haven’t even played in a pre-season game yet.

WR Quentin Johnston and WR Josh Palmer

Johnston is a big-bodied WR who has drawn comparisons to his new teammate Mike Williams. He had a terrific final season at TCU before being taken in the first round of this year’s draft by the Chargers and is looking like he will be the WR3 on this team, possibly the WR2 depending on Mike Williams’ health. At this point, Johnston is looking like a round 11 or 12 pick with big time upside should one of the top WRs on this team get hurt. Palmer is a guy who should be looked at no earlier than the final rounds of your draft. He stepped up last season while Allen and Williams missed time, and should he be given that opportunity again in 2023, he will gain plenty of value. In the meantime, Palmer is a late-round flier at best and most likely going to be on the waiver wire to begin the season. 

TE Gerald Everett

If you miss out on the top-tier guys and don’t want to take a TE in the first 10 rounds, you are likely to find Everett staring you in the face come rounds 12-14. He has a nice skill set, however, with so many mouths to feed in this offense, there simply just isn’t a big enough role for him on a week-to-week basis. His new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has shown the tendency to use the TE often, as we saw with Dalton Schultz and even Jake Ferguson last season, but I wouldn’t bank on Everett being better than the 5th best option on this team in terms of targets. 

K Cameron Dicker or Dustin Hopkins

Personally, I am going to avoid the Chargers kickers until I know which guy it is going to be. I have never been one to invest in a kicker, usually waiting until the final two rounds to make my decision based on who is left. Whoever does win this job could be a nice value for you though. The Chargers should be a top-10 scoring team which directly impacts their kicker. Dicker is the guy who is listed number 1 on the most recent depth charts, so if I had to choose one today, it would be him. 

Chargers DST

There is a crazy amount of star talent on this defense. If they can just stay healthy, they will be top 10 in the NFL and in Fantasy Football. Bosa, Mack, James, Samuel Jr and Eric Kendricks could all be top players at their respective positions, and if things go right in Los Angeles, mainly health-wise, you could be looking at a top five fantasy defense whose draft price is 12th-15th defense overall.