Josh Downs Fantasy Football Projections: Should You Draft Downs in Fantasy This Year?
Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft we had another loaded class of talented wide receivers. Many receviers came off the board early in the draft, including four first-rounders: Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But which lower-profile receiver could have the biggest fantasy impact this season? The answer could be the Colts' third-round selection Josh Downs out of North Carolina. Let’s look at expectations for Downs and break down whether he is a good pick at his current ADP.
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Josh Downs 2023 Fantasy Projection
One of the first things we should look at is what Downs' target share looks like for the upcoming season. Fortunately for Downs, the Colts have been struggling to find reliable pass catchers the last couple of seasons. He will be competing with Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce for targets, but the nice thing about Downs' game is that he will play primarily out of the slot. With the Colts recently releasing Isaiah McKenzie, Downs could start in the slot as early as Week 1.
It also helps Downs that Pierce did not have a good rookie season and he has been struggling so far in the preseason. Downs could quickly jump up to second behind Pittman in target share on this offense.
Downs is a small, but speedy receiver that is excellent with the ball in his hands in the open field. The only negative is that rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is going to be the starting quarterback to start the season. Richardson has a big arm and is extremely fast, but he is inaccurate at times as well. I can see Downs being open a lot, but Richardson either being inaccurate with the throw or running with the football instead of looking to Downs in the slot. With that in mind, I have a projection of 50 receptions for 635 yards and two touchdowns for Downs this year, which could be more if Pittman or Pierce miss any time this season.
Should You Draft Josh Downs This Year?
The FantasySP ADP Tracker shows that Downs is being drafted as the WR84 with an ADP of 242. I would definitely draft Downs at this ADP, which will leave him available in the very last rounds or even on waivers in most leagues. His skills fit in nicely with what the Colts want to do on offense this year. You will have to be patient early in the season with him, but once the Colts' offense gets rolling with Richardson growing and possibly Jonathan Taylor coming back, Downs could be a good flex option down the stretch and into the fantasy playoffs.
