Why The Washington Commanders Are the Best Streaming Defense Option For Week 1
I love streaming defenses and kickers in fantasy football, so much so that I'm almost sad when I find a consistent option that I can play every week (that's an exaggeration, but you get the point). I have spent years pouring over how likely a defense is to get sacks, interceptions, and, most importantly, touchdowns.
One team this week stands out as maybe the top streaming defense option. The Washington Commanders weren't getting drafted in many leagues, but they start the season with the best matchup possible: the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals might be the worst team in the league, and they're definitely the most disjointed to start the season. Let's take a look at how they stack up (rankings and numbers below courtesy of Pro Football Reference).
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Arizona's QB Situation
The Cardinals cut veteran Colt McCoy on August 28th, just four days after trading for Joshua Dobbs. You might remember Dobbs from a similar situation last year when the Titans were struggling after an injury to Ryan Tannehill and acquired Dobbs, throwing him into the fire quickly to start two games at the end of the season, including a win-and-in Week 18 game.
Dobbs has a career 58.8% completion percentage, averaging 5.4 yards per pass and posting two career touchdowns versus three interceptions. Dobbs' dismal stats and lack of familiarity with the Cardinals' offense would make it seem like he'd be inactive on game day, but he is actually in line to start Week 1. The only other active quarterback on the roster is rookie Clayton Tune, a fifth-round pick out of Houston. Tune played in the preseason, but he obviously showed he needs time before stepping into action, as any fifth-round pick would.
Whoever plays for Arizona to open the season will likely be unprepared for NFL action and struggle. That means a lot of sacks and interceptions for the defense on the other side.
Washington's Defense
This isn't just about the matchup. The Commanders have a lot of talent and pedigree at all three levels of the defense. Their starting lineup features six first-round picks (four across the line, one linebacker, and one cornerback), two third-rounders, two fifth-rounders, and a seventh-round pick. That's a lot of highly-touted players with solid depth.
Chase Young is involved in that count, but he might not play the opening game. Young was the Washington player with the most hype coming in since RGIII, but he has played only 12 games over the last two seasons and topped out at 7.5 sacks his rookie year. The rest of the line should be ready to go, however, and they will face a weak offense across the board.
Arizona's Skill Positions
We talked about quarterback, and, regardless of who plays, that's an issue, but let's see who Washington will have to deal with at the skill positions:
- James Conner is the only back of note on the Cardinals' roster, and while he will be playable for some weeks, it won't be this one. Last season, the Commanders were sixth-best or better against running backs in these categories: fantasy points allowed, rushing yards allowed, rushing touchdowns allowed, receiving yards to backs, and receiving touchdowns to backs. They are likely to swallow Conner whole.
- Zach Ertz has had a good career, but he might miss the game or be less than 100% and is past his best days regardless. Trey McBride, the backup tight end, was a second-round pick last year who the team has high hopes for, but he failed to make an impact his rookie season. Washington allowed the fourth-least fantasy points to tight ends last year, and this uninspiring group doesn't look likely to make waves.
- Arizona wide receivers Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore deserve a little more respect. The Commanders allowed fantasy production to receivers at a higher rate than the other positions, ranking 14th in points allowed, 11th in receptions allowed, and 14th in receiving yards allowed while giving up a league-average number of receiving touchdowns. Brown had over 90 catches and 1,000 yards for Baltimore in 2021, and Moore was a second-round pick that same year, entering the league with expectations. Still, both receivers will be reliant on uneven quarterback play, and Washington doesn't figure to give up much through the air.
Other notes
- Washington was tied for the ninth-most defensive fantasy points scored last year according to Fantasy Pros
- They had the 12th-most sacks but the fifth-least interceptions
- They forced the least fumbles in the league but did recover a league-average number of those that did hit the ground
- They tied for the fourth-most defensive touchdowns in the league (three) and were one of 11 teams to record a safety (two teams had two)
That all says to me that Washington's defense was pretty average last year. Turnover rate tends to even out year-to-year, meaning the Commanders could bounce back with more interceptions and fumbles this season. Playing against the worst offense in the league, even an average, unlucky defense sounds appealing; I think it's going to be more like a ferocious defense completely shutting down the other team and scoring a defensive touchdown.
Possible Downsides
Two things could happen that would affect Washington's fantasy output. First, the Cardinals could choose to go ultra-conservative with an overmatched offense, limiting the number of sack and interception chances. This would probably keep the score low, but the Commanders couldn't add more goodies.
The Washington offense has a high variance outlook, and that includes a very low floor (Cardinals-level, even?). If second-year quarterback Sam Howell has his own struggles and turns the ball over, the defense will face short fields that may lead to points.
I see the upside as much higher than any downside, and there is probably a decent floor no matter what happens. Washington will likely be a top-10 defense in Week 1, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them as the top-scoring team at the end of the week. If you don't have the Ravens, consider grabbing the Commanders.
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