NFL Week 1 Power Rankings: Can Anyone Catch the Chiefs?

What a wonderful time of the year. MLB playoffs are starting in a month, college football has just begun, and the NFL season begins this week. 

One of the beautiful differences between college football and the NFL is how a champion is decided. 

In college, throughout the season, various bodies rank the teams every week. And although the ultimate process has changed, teams are always determined at least in part based on those rankings. Most recently, the top four ranked teams play two semifinal games, with the winners playing in a championship game. 

The NFL is much simpler, you do well in the regular season, make the playoffs, and continue to win. The final two teams meet in the Super Bowl with the victor leaving as Super Bowl champions.

And even though the NFL doesn’t have a ranking system to actually choose their champions, it is a fun exercise to create an NFL Power Ranking. Each week I’ll be putting together this list, and the best way to start is to see what Las Vegas has to say about it.

Each year Las Vegas establishes odds for every team winning the Super Bowl. This first week that is the list I am using as the baseline, and I’m including the odds of them winning it all. 

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

1. Kansas City Chiefs (+600)

There hasn’t been a repeat Super Bowl champion in two decades, but if any team is equipped to do it, it’s this Chiefs team. As long as QB Patrick Mahomes is on the field the team has a chance to repeat, and they are worthy of their No.1 rank.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (+650)

The Eagles enter the year as they ended last year, as the No. 2 team in the league. They will face more competition than the Chiefs to just win their division. If they can't do that, their road to getting back to the Super Bowl gets considerably harder.

3. Buffalo Bills (+900)

The Bills have actually been an underperforming team these last few seasons even though they’ve ruled the AFC East. They need to at least make it to a Super Bowl before they can get to that next level.

4. San Fransisco 49ers (+1,000)

The 49ers completely botched the Trey Lance situation … from initially trading away so much draft capital to move up the draft to acquire him, to then trading him away for a fourth-round pick. Frankly, if they had simply signed then-free-agent Tom Brady, they probably would have had at least one Super Bowl victory, and he’d probably still be playing this season.

5. Cincinnati Bengals (+1,100)

The Bengals are playing in an improving division, and QB Joe Burrow is starting the year a little banged up. Although they should still win the division, Baltimore and Pittsburgh could make it a bit uncomfortable for them.

6. Dallas Cowboys (+1,400)

No team in the NFC East has won back-to-back divisions in nearly two decades. The Eagles won the division last season, which means it’s someone else’s “turn” this year. The Cowboys are realistically the only other team that can compete for that division.

7. New York Jets (+1,600)

It’s been a while since the Jets have been ranked this high, but the addition of Aaron Rodgers has done wonders for the team’s vibe, swagger, and outlook. There’s definitely a buzz in New York.

8. Baltimore Ravens (+1,800)

With QB Lamar Jackson in the fold, in a division that’s potentially winnable, the Ravens have been catapulted into the top 10. With this rank, they are the fifth-highest AFC team, which does seem a tad high.

9. Detroit Lions (+2,200)

If the Jets being ranked No. 7 is a shock, the Lions being here at No. 9, inside the top 10, is a bigger shock. It’s amazing what a 10-game stretch can do for a franchise. They ended last season 8-2, but still did not make the playoffs. This may be a bit of fool’s gold. Landing here makes them the No. 4 NFC team, which is definitely high in my eyes.

10. Los Angeles Chargers (+2,500)

What a difference a half makes for a team’s perception. The Chargers dominated the first half against the Jaguars in their opening-round playoff game before completely falling apart in the second half. If they won that game, they’d definitely be ranked higher than No. 10.

11. Miami Dolphins (+2,500)

Although the Dolphins find themselves just outside of the top 10 overall, this rank makes them the No. 3 team in the AFC East, which is the problem. Ultimately their fate lies with the health of QB Tua Tagovailoa.

12. Seattle Seahawks (+3,000)

The Seahawks landing at No. 12 is a bit of indictment that there aren’t many great teams in the league. It feels like this middle batch of teams from 12-26 can all be put under an umbrella; they are all interchangeable and will move up and down within this grouping, never falling below or climbing above.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3,000)

The Jaguars should win their division easily with Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston as the other three teams. This makes their 30/1 Super Bowl odds attractive.

14. New Orleans Saints (+3,000)

Similar to the Jags, the Saints are also in an easy division that they should win. With only Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta in their division, winning it is the first step for the Saints making a Super Bowl run.

15. Minnesota Vikings (+3,500)

I don’t see that much regression for the Vikings that would drop them so far behind the Lions. 

16. Cleveland Browns (+3,500)

This is a make-or-break year for Deshaun Watson and the Browns. They invested so much money in the young QB, and are banking on him regaining the skills he exhibited in Houston. They are ranked above Pittsburgh (No. 19), on this list, but I think these two teams should be flipped.

17. Denver Broncos (+3,500)

Beginning the second half of this list is the Broncos at No. 17. This rank is solely this high thanks to the addition of new HC Sean Payton. Similar to Cleveland and Pittsburgh, I think the Raiders (No. 25), should be ranked higher than this Broncos team.

18. Chicago Bears (+5,000)

There is a ton of hype surrounding the Bears and QB Justin Fields. And every season there is a team who makes a huge leap from the prior year. Although the Bears could very well be that team, it will be interesting to see how they navigate their six divisional games. They still feel like the worst team in this division, even though the Packers (No. 22), are four slots behind them on this list.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers (+5,000)

This is a Steelers franchise that has never finished below .500 under HC Mike Tomlin. I am hard-pressed to ever rank a Tomlin-led team to be last in his division, but that is where they are, with their three divisional rivals all ranked higher than them on this list.

20. Atlanta Falcons (+6,000)

Not that No. 20 is great, but this rank seems way too high for the Falcons. Until proven otherwise, this is a bottom 25% team in the league which should put them no higher than No. 25. But again, this is the initial ranking based on where Las Vegas has these teams to win a Super Bowl. The only logic I can see is that being in a weak division, the Falcons have a better chance than some of the other teams below them who are in tougher divisions. 

21. New England Patriots (+6,500)

And here is one of those teams. The Patriots have a better team than the Falcons, but they are in a far tougher division. While the Falcons are ranked higher than their division-mates in the Panthers and Buccaneers on this list, the Patriots are the lowest-ranked team in the AFC East.

22. Green Bay Packers (+6,500)

Normally the Jets are down in this area of teams, while the Packers are perennially near the top. It’s amazing what happens to teams when they have a star QB. The parallel between top teams and the top-ranked QBs on those teams is remarkable. It is the most important position in any sport, and not an accident that most of the teams high on this list, have the best QBs.

23. Washington Commanders (+6,500)

Ron Rivera is a fabulous head coach who always gets the most out of his teams. They are ranked next to the Giants on this list, and how they do in their two games against each other could very well determine who finishes in last place and who slides into a Wild Card spot. Although Daniel Snyder’s departure as owner seems to be helping the overall vibe in DC, they just don’t have enough weapons, especially at the QB position, to ever move up on this list.

24. New York Giants (+6,500)

The Giants overperformed last season, and the only reason for them to be this low on this list is an expectation that the team will regress. As I said, all of these teams between 12-26 are very similar … I don’t see much separation between this Giants team and the12th-ranked Seahawks team.

25. Las Vegas Raiders (+8,000)

I think Jimmy Garoppolo is an upgrade from Derek Carr. They still have one of the best WRs in the game with Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs is back, and they signed free-agent WR Jakobi Meyers. I like them ahead of the Broncos, and if they were in some other division they’d compete for a title, but they are in the AFC West. That being said, this feels low for this team.

26. Los Angeles Rams (+8,000)

This Rams team has the most question marks of any team coming into the season. They are only a couple of years removed from a Super Bowl under the leadership of QB Matt Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp. Injuries to each of them last season completely destroyed the year. They still have Aaron Donald, one of the most dominant defensive players in the league, and if Stafford and Kupp can stay healthy, they could easily move up this list.

27. Carolina Panthers (+8,000)

Three of these last six teams are starting a rookie QB, and a fourth team, (Tennessee Titans), can’t wait to put in their rookie QB Will Levis. Bryce Young was the No.1 pick of the draft and it will be interesting to see which of these rookies has the best year personally, as well as performing the best towards their team’s success.

28. Tennessee Titans (+8,000)

Even though the Titans are in this lowly No. 28 spot, there are two divisional opponents lower than them on this list. With RB Derrick Henry, and newly acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins, HC Mike Vrabel should have enough to stay in the mix and be able to move up this list.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10,000)

QB Baker Mayfield is getting yet another chance with another team. He is now a lourneyman QB and teams that have journeymen QBs are not good. They are dealing with disgruntled WR Mike Evans, and don’t have many other skill players. This could be a very bad team.

30. Indianapolis Colts (+15,000)

Rookie QB Anthony Richardson wasn’t accurate in college and he hasn’t been accurate in preseason. This is a building and growing season for the Colts, and they won’t move up much beyond this spot. 

31. Houston Texans (+20,000)

Here is another team that will start Week 1 with a rookie QB. C.J. Stroud has won the job, and although I like his makeup, big arm, and skill set, I don’t like his weapons. These bottom teams are the dregs of the league and will stay here all season.

32. Arizona Cardinals (+40,000)

This is by far the worst team in the league. Las Vegas has the Texans at 200/1 and they are ranked second-to-last … this Cardinals team’s odds are double that, at 400/1. If Vegas thinks they are twice as unlikely as the Texans to win a Super Bowl, that tells you all you need to know about this team.

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