Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Decision: Jared Goff vs. Aaron Rodgers vs. Dak Prescott vs. Geno Smith
Week 1 of the NFL season is about to get underway, and that means fantasy owners are trying to make their final decisions for players who are playing in the first game.
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff is at the center of plenty of the tough decisions fantasy owners are left with. The FantasySP “Who Should I Start?” feature has Goff in four of the top-five trending decisions at the QB position. Owners are trying to decide between Goff, New York Jets’ Aaron Rodgers, Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith.
Let’s figure out if Goff should be your guy, or if one of the other three is a better option.
Tough start decision? We have you covered. Find out in depth stats, red zone opportunities, projections, breaking news, and crowdsourcing real fantasy owners faced with the same start/sit decision. Check out our Who Should I Start tool.
Why You Should Start Jared Goff
Goff and the Lions will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Thursday night matchup in Kansas City. As I wrote earlier today in an article trying to decide between running backs David Montgomery and Raheem Mostert, Kansas City should be absolutely fired up as the team celebrates the Super Bowl title from earlier in the year.
The Chiefs are coming off a season in which they finished in the bottom 10 in the league in passing yards allowed (4,138), while giving up the most passing touchdowns (33). Despite that, I do not think the Lions will come out and try to throw the ball 50+ times if they don’t have to.
The recipe for beating Patrick Mahomes is usually taking care of the ball and dominating the time of possession. Sure that could be accomplished with a quick passing game, but I think it’s more likely the Lions try to attack the Chiefs’ defense with the run game, especially with Chris Jones out. I’d expect a heavy dose of Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs as the visitors try to quiet the crowd and turn the contest into a low-scoring one.
That doesn’t mean that Goff couldn’t throw for 200+ yards and a touchdown or two, but I’d not expect him to go for 300+ and three or more scores, unless Detroit gets down big early.
Why You Should Start Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers begins his career with the New York Jets with a home game against a tough Buffalo Bills team. It’s not often you have to wonder whether or not to start Rodgers, but when you are talking about going against the Bills’ defense, and considering things might not operate perfectly in Rodgers’ first start, I see the hesitation to start him.
Buffalo finished inside the top 10 in the league last year when it came to passing yards allowed (3,721) and touchdowns allowed (21). The Bills’ defense is also pretty healthy coming into the year, with just safety Micah Hyde on the initial injury report.
Taking a look back on some of Rodgers’ season-opening games and you will find some down performances for his typical standards. With a primetime against a big-time division rival to kick off his time in New York, that’s certainly a lot of pressure on Rodgers. He’s obviously a guy who can handle that, but much like I think the Lions try to control the ball and play keepaway, I could see the Jets doing the same to Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense.
Why You Should Start Dak Prescott
The Cowboys also open the season up with a primetime game against a division rival, traveling to face the New York Giants on Sunday night. There’s a couple new faces on the Cowboys’ offense, but for the most part, they are trotting out a lineup similar to last year.
Prescott played in just one of the games against the Giants in 2022. It wasn’t his finest showing, completing 21-of-30 passes for 261 yards, two touchdowns and tossing two interceptions. He was not sacked in the contest.
Overall, the Giants finished in the middle of the league when it came to passing yards against (3,909). New York was in the top 10 in passing touchdowns against (21).
It’s another case of a veteran quarterback hitting the road for what should be a wild and rowdy crowd. A loss in the game doesn’t mean your season is over by any measure, but it puts the losing team being the eight-ball early on. Division games to start the year always seem to carry a little extra importance with them.
One thing working against Prescott is that starting offensive linemen Tyron Smith and Tyler Smith are both on the injury report. Missing one or both guys could make for a long night for Prescott and the offense.
Why You Should Start Geno Smith
Smith and the Seahawks open the season at home against the division rival Los Angeles Rams in the Sunday afternoon slate of games. Smith is coming off the best statistical year of his career and has a few new offensive weapons to work with this season.
Smith experienced varying results against the Rams in 2022. In the first matchup, he completed 28 of 39 passes for 367 yards, three touchdowns and tossed one interception. He was sacked four times. In game two, he completed 19 of his 31 attempts for 213 yards, one touchdown and threw two interceptions. Smith was sacked three more times in the second game.
Los Angeles finished in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed (4,044) but surrendered 22 passing touchdowns, which was in the top half of the league. Unlike the two games against the Seahawks might suggest, they didn’t get after the quarterback all that well, with just 37 sacks on the season.
One thing to keep in mind with this matchup is that the Rams will be without Cooper Kupp at receiver, so they might struggle offensively. It’s possible the Seahawks run away with the game, and Smith doesn’t get a chance to rack up too many yards or touchdowns. It's still a pretty favorable matchup for Smith and the Seattle offense.
Smith is the Recommended Start
Smith is the highest-ranked quarterback in our week 1 quarterback projections, coming in ninth overall. Goff is the next best at 15th, while Prescott is 17th and Rodgers 18th.
While our Start/Sit tool tends to show owners favor Prescott over the other three quarterbacks, I’m actually in agreement with the week 1 projections. I think Smith has the best matchup of the four and should be started over the other three. Smith’s game is not nearly as pressure packed as the other three, and I think the Seahawks have the best chance to win among these four teams. If he can take care of the ball, he should outscore the other three quarterbacks in question.
If Smith isn’t on your roster, I’d turn next to Goff like the projections do too. They might run the ball a lot against the Chiefs, but his matchup is a touch easier than the one Rodgers or Prescott face.
I’d stick with the projections and give the slight edge to Prescott over Rodgers this week. Prescott is far more familiar with his offense and opponent’s defense than Rodgers will be with his new team and against a strong Bills’ defense. It's not often I'm going to rank Rodgers behind these four guys, but for week 1, that's exactly what I'm doing.
