49ers Fantasy Football Breakdown: Is Brandon Aiyuk's Week 1 Explosion Sustainable, Can Deebo Samuel Also Thrive?
Brandon Aiyuk was one of the fantasy stars of Sunday’s slate of NFL games, helping the San Francisco 49ers carve up the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 30-7 rout in Pittsburgh.
Aiyuk caught all eight of his targets from quarterback Brock Purdy. He went for 129 yards and caught both of Purdy’s touchdown passes. All of that production came while playing 85% of the offensive snaps, trailing only Deebo Samuel’s 87%.
Speaking of Samuel, the talented do-it-all wideout tallied five catches on his seven targets for 55 yards. He also carried the ball twice for 8 yards.
After Aiyuk’s stellar Week 1, you can bet his start percentage is going to skyrocket next week. Can he be a consistent fantasy asset despite so many other playmakers existing on the 49ers’ offense? Will Samuel’s stock be hurt going forward? Let’s discuss.
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Brandon Aiyuk Fantasy Outlook
Aiyuk got the 49ers on the scoreboard with an eight-yard touchdown reception from Purdy to cap the team’s first offensive drive. That was his first touch in the game, but the score seemed to convince the 49ers to target him more going forward.
He hauled in a 23-yard reception on the team’s second drive before catching two passes on the next drive. One went for 10 yards, and the other was a 19-yard touchdown.
Aiyuk had already delivered a strong fantasy showing for any fantasy managers that started him, but continued to add to his big day with more big catches. The wideout had a 16-yard reception later in the second quarter to cap a monster opening half.
Aiyuk caught 16 and 15-yard receptions on the team’s second possession of the third quarter. He ended his day with a 22-yard reception to start the fourth quarter.
Some things that really stood out to me about Aiyuk were that all eight of his receptions went for first downs, three of his receptions came on third down, and he was targeted multiple times in the red zone.
Even with Samuel, running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle all appearing to be ahead of Aiyuk in the competition for touches, he was still able to carve out a role offensively. He gives the team another offensive weapon and makes it that much harder for opposing teams to try and take certain members of the offense away. Aiyuk seems like the most unlikely of those four players to get double coverage in the passing game, which leaves opportunities for him to excel again moving forward.
Our charts showed that Aiyuk was started in just 49% of leagues in Week 1, and that number likely jumps way up in Week 2. The 49ers will hit the road again for a game against the Los Angeles Rams, a team that limited the Seattle Seahawks to 13 points, 180 total yards and 95 passing yards in Week 1.
Deebo Samuel Fantasy Outlook
Given where Samuel was drafted, his 63 scrimmage yards on only seven touches probably left most fantasy investors unimpressed.
Samuel was involved early on, catching Purdy’s first pass and then receiving the first carry. The next time Samuel got a touch, it was the first play of the second quarter, and San Fran was up 10-0. There was only one other drive in which Samuel had more than one touch.
Samuel has been a vital part of the 49ers’ offense, but the addition of McCaffrey last season definitely took away some of his carries and looks out of the backfield. Add in Aiyuk and his strong Week 1 showing, and some fantasy managers might be panicking a bit.
I think it’s premature to give up on Samuel. It’s possible he was far more involved in the offensive plans for Week 1, but the lopsided score and defensive plan against him were enough to limit him from a better showing.
The thing I’d be most focused on is that he was the skill player on offense with the most snaps for the 49ers. He’s going to be on the field a lot, and the targets, usage and chances for scoring should swing back in his favor soon.
Who Can I Start?
After the strong offensive showing the 49ers delivered, it’s hard not to want to put their skill players in your lineup for Week 2, even seeing a tough matchup with the Rams looming. San Fran handily beat Los Angeles twice in 2022, with 327 offensive yards in game one and 368 more in game two.
With McCaffrey not on the team for the first matchup with the Rams, Samuel exploded for 115 receiving yards and a touchdown on just six catches and seven targets. Aiyuk had four catches on as many targets for only 37 yards.
Samuel missed the second game against the Rams in 2022, but with McCaffrey on the team by then, the 49ers still rolled. Aiyuk excelled with Samuel out, catching all six targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. McCaffrey was a star for the 49ers, throwing the touchdown to Aiyuk, catching a touchdown pass from Jimmy Garoppolo and rushing for another score.
When it comes to a start in your Week 2 lineups, I’m good with starting both Aiyuk and Samuel. The 49ers showed they can involve both players, along with McCaffrey and Kittle. With a week to dissect what the Rams did well in Week 1, I fully expect the 49ers’ offense to continue rolling in Week 2. Aiyuk probably won’t score twice again, but he simply did too much in the opening week to sit him. Samuel is likely more involved against Los Angeles and outproduces his Week 1 outing.
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