Finding The Top Week 2 Fantasy Football Pickups With Predictive Analytics: Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Justice Hill
Welcome to the most important waiver wire article you'll read all year! I know that sounds dramatic, but it's true: Week 1 is by far the most impactful week of waivers, as the fantasy community collectively realizes all the many many things we were wrong about over the offseason.
With so many options on Week 1's waiver wire, we can use the Predictive Analytics tool in the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to help identify the top candidates. This tool predicts the Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) for every player, plus predicts their new rostership level following this week's waiver moves. Here are its current predictions for this week:
Top Predicted Week 2 Fantasy Football Adds
WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
As we can see, the top player in EWI is Rams WR Puka Nacua, and this is thoroughly unsurprising. Nucua's Week 1 outing wasn't just good for a fifth-round rookie in their debut, it was one of the best performances of the week, full stop. He tied with Tyreek Hill for the league lead with 15 targets, catching 10 for 115 yards. This is the kind of performance that doesn't fly under anyone's radar, and you'll need a hefty FAAB bid or a very early spot in your league's wavier order to land him.
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RB Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
According to the Fantasy Assistant, Gainwell is actually landing significantly behind Nacua, with 69% EWI to Nacua's 91%. However, I think this is a mistake and an opportunity worth capitalizing on: Gainwell should be the top priority add in most league formats. For one, as great as Nacua's outburst was, he still technically served as the Rams' WR3, playing one less snap than Tutu Atwell and significantly fewer than Van Jefferson. And, more importantly, Cooper Kupp will come back eventually and immediately demand a huge percentage of the Rams' targets.
Gainwell, on the other hand, is more locked in as the Eagles' lead back than the fantasy community is giving him credit for. This wasn't some Week 1 fluke or even really that huge of a surprise. When I broke down this backfield in preseason, I noted that all the news out of camp was that Gainwell was set to be the Eagles' lead back on early downs. That was exactly what happened in Week 1, as Gainwell played 62% of snaps and saw 14 carries to go with four targets. Rashaad Penny was a healthy scratch, and D'Andre Swift was a non-factor. He's not available in every league, but the fact that the lead back on one of the league's best offenses is available in ANY league is remarkable. Make him your number-one option on waivers and in FAAB bidding, even if everyone else is more excited about Nacua.
Under-the-Radar Week 1 Fantasy Football Adds
RB Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens
According to the Fantasy Assistant, Hill has just a 35% EWI, and that is simply too low. With J.K. Dobbins ruled out for the season with an Achilles injury, he should be an immediate flex option. After Dobbins exited in Week 1, Hill saw 52% of the Ravens' snaps, including all of the goal-line work and most passing downs. Gus Edwards and Melvin Gordon are going to be involved, but as long as he stays the receiving and goal-line back, Hill is easily the best fantasy option. At the very least, Hill should be stashed in every single league to see how this situation plays out. His projected post-waivers rostership is just 35%. Do your part to make it higher than that, and be thankful if your league-mates are among those sleeping on him, allowing you to get him for cheap.
TE Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers
Musgrave is also going overlooked, but at least his 23% EWI is slightly more understandable. Where Hill scored two touchdowns, Musgrave had just a solid stat line, catching three of four targets for 50 yards. That's a great debut for a rookie tight end, and it looks even better when you look at his peripheral numbers: Musgrave led all Packers in routes run and posted an elite 92.3% route participation rate. However, his actual numbers could easily have been much bigger. Jordan Love just missed him on what could have been a 56-yard score at the end of the first half, and Musgrave tripped on what should have been a walk-in touchdown early in the fourth quarter.
If one or both of those plays goes the other way, Musgrave is this week's top-scoring tight end (which, to be fair, is not saying much) and one of the hottest waiver pickups. Instead, he is projected to still be available in 58% of leagues after waivers have run. Given the current state of the tight-end positon, Musgrave is absolutely worth scooping in most leagues.
