Fantasy Football Trade Value: Should You Trade Sam Howell, Garrett Wilson, Joshua Kelley?
The first week of the fantasy football season is over, and, as always, nearly everything we thought we knew was wrong. Already, you can look back at any given draft board and find players who, for one reason or another, would be taken somewhere entirely different today.
After Week 1 is also a great time to make trades, as some players will have seen their trade values not react enough in response to the infinitely more information we now have ... while others may be the victims of overreaction. We can use the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to find players that have the most Expected Trade Interest (ETI), then cross-reference them with the Trade Value Chart to find good targets. Let's get started.
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Best Fantasy Football Moves To Make Week 2
Sell High On Sam Howell
The sophomore QB currently ranks second in Expected Trade Interest (ETI), with a very high 21%. This makes sense, as he put up a QB1 showing in Week 1, finishing with 15.2 fantasy points as the QB12. Especially given that plenty of highly-drafted quarterbacks flopped in Week 1 and Howell was likely drafted as a backup in 1-QB leagues, managers may be targeting him as a cheap replacement option to plug into their lineups.
If you are one of those players who drafted Howell as a backup, or even as your QB2 in Superflex leagues, and you're getting offers, you should strongly consider taking them. Howell did finish as a QB1 in Week 1, but it was perhaps the least impressive QB1 finish possible, and not just because he was the QB12. In what should have been a great matchup with a woeful Cardinal team, Howell passed for just 202 yards and one touchdown while also turning the ball over twice. His fantasy day was saved by a rushing touchdown and, while he does have above-average mobility, it came on one of his just two rushing attempts on the day. Howell is more of an occasional scrambler than a true dual-threat QB, and you certainly can't expect him to score a rushing TD every week.
More importantly, this is simply a matter of value. Howell, optimistically, is a middling QB2. In 1-QB, that's practically worthless, and even in many Superflex leagues, it's not worth as much as you might think: You'd be very hard-pressed to win a league with Howell in your best lineup. Our Trade Value Chart currently has Howell ranked 101st overall, above flex players with real value like Raheem Mostert, Nico Collins and Michael Thomas. If someone in your league is intrigued by Howell's perceived rushing upside as an up-and-coming QB and willing to part with players like that, take it and run.
Sell Low On Garrett Wilson
Yes, you read that right. I want you to sell low on one of the most talented receivers in the league. Following Aaron Rodgers' season-ending injury, I don't expect you to be able to get anywhere near the late-first, early-second-round price you likely paid to have Wilson on your roster. But you might be able to get close, and that's more than he's worth with Zach Wilson under center.
Everyone has talked about how bad the QB Wilson was for the Offensive Rookie of the Year's production, but the numbers are truly staggering. Garrett averaged just 8.82 PPR points per game with the former second-overall pick under center. 60 receivers averaged more in 2022. I don't expect his numbers to drop quite that low, but I also don't expect him to be more than a boom-or-bust flex option at best. Remember, we must also keep in mind that the switch from Rodgers to Zach Wilson will entirely change the Jets' offense: Despite Rodgers exiting after just four snaps, his replacement attempted just 21 passes, the lowest of any Week 1 QB except Desmond Ridder in the Falcons' bizarro world offense.
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The Trade Value Chart still has Garrett listed as the 25th most valuable asset in all of fantasy football, and he is tied for the seventh-most EWI with 13%. If you can get anything close to that from a league-mate who is feeling optimistic after watching him make an absolutely bonkers TD catch on a bad pass from the other Wilson, take it.
Buy High On Joshua Kelly
Sticking with the theme of turning trade tropes on their heads, I would recommend trading for Joshua Kelly, even coming off the back of the best fantasy outing of his four-year career. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting you blow the bank for him. But our Trade Value Chart has him as the 190th most valuable player, with the two closest running backs being Roschon Johnson and Tyjae Spears. I would easily trade either of those backs for him.
With Kelley, at the very least, you're getting the clear handcuff on one of the best offenses in the game. Yes, Spears, for example, is the clear handcuff to Derrick Henry. But does anyone expect him to put up RB1 numbers on this Titans offense if the King were to go down? If Austin Ekeler (who is already dealing with an ankle issue, by the way), misses any time, Kelley should, at minimum, be a solid RB2 in Kellen Moore's very fantasy-friendly offense.
And I think Kelley has the potential to be fantasy-relevant even with Ekeler healthy. He played 40% of snaps in Week 1, seeing 16 carries and one target. Those 16 carries actually tie him with Ekeler for the 12th most in the league in Week 1. If that continues, he could be the Ezekiel Eliott to Ekeler's Tony Pollard in Kellen Moore's offense. He currently has the third most ETI of any player, and it's worth joining the crowd trying to acquire him.
