Start Justice Hill vs. Zack Moss vs Khalil Herbert | Fantasy Football Week 2 RB Start Decision
The FantasySP Who Should I Start? tool continues to be the source of a lot of great start/sit decisions. One that caught our eye was a running back battle between Justice Hill of the Baltimore Ravens, Zack Moss of the Indianapolis Colts and Khalil Herbert of the Chicago Bears.
I’m going to do my best in helping you make a decision between those players should you have two or all three on your roster.
Tough start decision? We have you covered. Find out in depth stats, red zone opportunities, projections, breaking news, and crowdsourcing real fantasy owners faced with the same start/sit decision. Check out our Who Should I Start tool.
Why You Should Start Justice Hill
Hill was the backup on the depth chart heading into the team’s season-opening game against the Houston Texans, but ended the game tying for the team lead in carries. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards joined Hill at eight carries each.
Hill didn’t do much with his carries, running for just 9 yards, but two touchdowns. His long run was only 4 yards.
Dobbins was injured in the game and is now out for the season. That leaves Hill and Edwards to handle a majority of the snaps.
Dobbins was on the field for 30 snaps in the opener, with fullback Patrick Ricard at 28 snaps, Hill at 19 and Edwards at 15. Edwards was the most effective back, averaging 4 yards a carry. Hill was the recipient of five of the team’s six red zone rushing attempts. Hill did not earn a target in the passing game.
Hill is the 39th-ranked back in our week 2 projections, with Edwards just ahead of him at 37th. Hill is projected at six attempts and 12 yards. Hill and Dallas Cowboys’ Tony Pollard are tied for the most projected touchdowns at 0.7.
That isn’t a sparkling projection by any means, but if the waiver wire is thin on backs, Hill’s touchdown appeal is enough for fantasy owners to consider starting him. The Ravens could be in for a grind-it-out kind of game against division foe Cincinnati this weekend. The Bengals allowed 206 rushing yards on 40 attempts to the Cleveland Browns in week 1. Cleveland had two backs attempt 33 runs, and the Ravens might try something similar.
Why You Should Start Zack Moss
Moss will be making his season debut for the Colts this weekend against the Houston Texans. Moss has been dealing with an arm injury but could be thrust into a big role after the team struggled to run the ball in week 1.
Indy backs attempted 16 rushes in the opener, going for only 25 yards. Quarterback Anthony Richardson led the team with 40 yards on 10 carries. The lead back in week 1 was Deon Jackson, and he fumbled the ball twice. Evan Hull was another option, and he got put on IR after sustaining an injury in week 1.
All signs point to Moss at least getting a chance to become the lead back in Indy. He will open his season facing a Texans’ defense that bottled up the Ravens pretty well last week. Ravens’ backs accounted for just 63 of the 110 rushing yards, doing so on 24 carries.
Moss is our 33rd-ranked back for week 2, with projections of 12 attempts, 55 yards and 0.3 touchdowns as a rusher and two targets, 1.2 catches and 7 yards as a receiver.
Why You Should Start Khalil Herbert
Herbert is listed as the Bears’ starting running back, but you wouldn’t know it from looking at his week 1 showing. He led the team’s running back room with nine rushes, but for only 27 yards.
Herbert played 27 snaps, two less than Roschon Johnson and only six more than D’Onta Foreman. Johnson got both of the team’s red zone attempts and was also targeted the most in the passing game. Herbert was targeted five times, catching three for 37 yards.
The Bears battle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 2. Tampa Bay’s defense only defended the run 17 times in the opener against the Minnesota Vikings. The Bucs allowed 41 yards on those carries, and only 34 yards came from a running back.
I don’t think the week 1 Buccaneers’ showing against the run can be looked at too deeply. Minnesota showed in week 2 as well that they can’t run the ball all that well. Chicago, on the other hand, is a run-first team.
Herbert is the 28th-ranked back this week, with projections of nine carries, 38 yards and 0.1 touchdowns, with an additional three targets, 1.9 receptions and 22 yards.
Final Numbers and the Recommended Start
For owners that roster Herbert and Moss, Herbert is being started 35% of the time to just 17% for Moss. Herbert is the overwhelming favorite over Hill, with Herbert starting 31% of the time and Hill just 7%. Moss and Hill owners have Moss starting 21% of the time to just under 10% for Hill.
Not many owners are starting two of these backs in any of the three scenarios. Herbert and Moss are being started together the most, and that’s just 10% of owners.
To be frank, none of these three backs thrill me, and I’d avoid starting them if I could. If my roster included all three and I needed to start one, I’d go with Moss. I think he’s got the best chance to get the most carries being the lead back in Indy. If he tacks on a couple catches, he should have no problem outsourcing Herbert or Hill.
I’d go with Herbert over Hill as his total yardage should be a good bit higher than Hill. I think Hill has the best chance to score of the three, but much like last week, I think that’s the only way he puts up any meaningful points for fantasy owners.
