Should You Bench Calvin Ridley? Fantasy Stars Who Will Struggle in Week 3
My second week picking "fantasy stars" who were going to struggle didn't go quite as well as a strong Week 1, but was still decent:
- Anthony Richardson ranked only 19th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring according to Fantasy Pros (whom I will reference a lot for fantasy point totals and rankings) ... but he scored 17.7 points before leaving with a concussion scare in the second quarter; that doesn't feel like a win.
- I chose Najee Harris to struggle for the second straight week and was correct for the second straight week (I'm done picking on him now ... for one week at least). He had just 43 yards on 11 touches while his backup, Jaylen Warren, had 86 yards on 10 touches.
- Garrett Wilson had a seemingly poor performance against the Cowboys with only two catches, but one of them went for a 68-yard touchdown. It's unfair to play the "if you take away his big play" game, but, if you take away his big play, Wilson would have scored 1.5 Standard fantasy points. I can't call it a win, but it's as close as you can be.
- Finally, Kyle Pitts turned two catches into just 15 yards. I've been all over Pitts and Drake London as players to trade because of their low-volume passing offense, but London had a good Week 2. Pitts, on the other hand, has four catches for 59 yards through two weeks. Week 3's matchup with Detroit is fairly juicy, but the Atlanta pass catchers will have a lot of tough weeks.
Let's try again. I say "fantasy stars," but these guys aren't necessarily All-Pro talents; they are players who are in fantasy lineups most of the time or those with usually big outputs who will fail to reach those heights this week. I try for as high-profile of a player as I can, but I'm not comfortable picking a top-five guy every week. This is supposed to be good advice, not a shot in the dark.
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Quarterback
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jones isn’t a star, but he finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback last season and was the top scorer at the position in Week 2. His running makes him a fantasy option some weeks; Jones had 59 yards and a touchdown on the ground in a huge comeback against Arizona, adding about 12 fantasy points to his total.
Against Arizona, Jones threw for 321 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. It took him 37 attempts to reach those numbers. Jones topped those 37 attempts only twice in 2022, and those were the only two games in which he threw for more than 228 yards. He hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game since his rookie season in 2019.
Jones needs volume to reach large passing numbers, and that doesn’t happen often these days. He averaged over 32 pass attempts per game in each of his first three seasons, but Jones averaged less than 30 attempts per game in 2022, his first with head coach Brian Daboll. It was Jones’ best year by far, so there is good reason to limit the number of throws Jones makes.
Jones also had almost twice as many rush attempts in 2022 as he had in any other season of his career. Daboll oversaw the rise of Josh Allen in Buffalo, and a large part of his game is built around the quarterback using his legs. That was somewhat replicated for Jones in New York, and, again, it was the best season Jones has had.
He had just 28 pass attempts in Week 1 despite getting blown out by the Cowboys, giving him 65 for the season. With 22 rush attempts, Jones has 33.9% as many rush attempts as pass attempts. That number was 25.4% in 2022. Jones is putting in work as a runner, and it is helping his fantasy value immensely, especially in Week 2.
However, I am projecting Jones to struggle in Week 3. The San Francisco 49ers have allowed the seventh-least fantasy points to QBs so far in 2023, according to Pro Football Reference. They have allowed the ninth-most passing yards but only two touchdowns through the air. Most importantly in the case of Jones, San Fran has allowed the 10th-least rushing yards to quarterbacks (just 21) and no touchdowns on the ground.
This isn’t a blip either; the 49ers allowed the fifth-least rushing yards to quarterbacks in 2022 to go along with the fifth-least fantasy points. Jones played another great defense in Week 1 and threw for just 104 yards on 28 attempts with two interceptions and seven sacks taken. The Giants also scored no points against the Cowboys.
The top offensive weapon on the Giants, Saquon Barkley, is out for Thursday's game as well, so the 49ers have one less player to worry about on an offense with very few playmakers. Don’t count on Jones in Week 2. He is a matchup-dependent option, and this is a bad matchup.
Running Back
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Let’s focus on Pierce, who was drafted as a weekly fantasy starter but has put up two complete duds to start the season. It’s been ugly: 26 rushes for 69 yards, a 2.7 yards per rush average. No touchdowns to save his fantasy days, either. Pierce has been RB46 in standard scoring and RB43 in PPR, over 30 spots lower than he was drafted.
Houston has been throwing the ball a lot because they have been losing by multiple scores, so the opportunities have been lacking for Pierce to touch the ball. Only twice in 2022 did Pierce carry the ball less than the 11 times he did in Week 1, and only two other games saw him with less than the 15 carries he had in Week 2. Pierce averaged 16.3 rush yards per game and no touchdowns in three of those four games (while blowing up for 131 yards and a touchdown in the fourth, in which he had 14 carries).
Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-least rushing yards and third-least fantasy points to running backs through two weeks while not allowing a touchdown to any back. They allowed the 10th-least rushing yards and 16th-least fantasy points to running backs last season, but seem have taken a step forward in 2023.
The Jags absolutely stifled the Colts’ backfield in Week 1, allowing just 25 rushing yards on 16 carries by backs. A much better Chiefs team had more success in Week 2, with Isiah Pacheco going for 70 yards, but the 68 yards on 14 carries by KC backs are more efficient than they are bulk stats. Again, no back scored a touchdown against Jacksonville.
The one weak spot of the team against running backs is allowing receiving yards. They allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs last season and have allowed 73 yards this year, tied for 11th-most. This doesn’t help Pierce much, though, as he has caught just two passes each week this season for 13 total yards. He didn’t top 28 receiving yards in any game last year and only had one touchdown catch.
Pierce has been struggling this season and goes up against a tough Jaguars run defense in Week 3. The one weakness Jacksonville does have, allowing receiving production to backs, doesn’t match up with Pierce's skills, as he has had a limited passing-game impact in his career. A bad Texans team may make a weekly habit out of throwing to catch up, as they are expected to be a bottom-five team all season, and Pierce’s stats would suffer as a result. Don’t start Pierce in Week 3, and keep a close eye as the season progresses.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
Here are Trevor Lawrence’s four games against the Houston Texans in his career:
| Game | Comp-Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns | Interceptions | Fantasy Points | Fantasy QB Rank |
| 2022 Week 17 | 17-21 | 152 | 0 | 1 | 5.5 | 32 |
| 2022 Week 5 | 25-47 | 286 | 0 | 2 | 12.3 | 21 |
| 2021 Week 15 | 22-38 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 | 24 |
| 2021 Week 1 | 28-51 | 332 | 3 | 3 | 22.1 | 12 |
His debut game in the league saw him throw for 332 yards and three touchdowns, but it took him 51 pass attempts to get there. The 22.1 points and 12th-place rank he had that week was his best performance against Houston in his career. The other three games saw him average 21.3 completions on 35.3 attempts for 216 yards with no touchdowns and three total interceptions. His average fantasy rank was below 25th. Houston has been a problem for Lawrence.
He's not the only one, as Houston allowed the seventh-least receiving yards and least receiving touchdowns (just six) to wide receivers in 2022. They also allowed the fourth-least fantasy points to receivers. This season has been more of the same; the Texans have allowed the fifth-least fantasy points to receivers and no touchdowns through two weeks (with the 13th-least receiving yards). This Texans' defense is talented even as the offense struggles.
That's not good news for Ridley, who was the sixth-highest-scoring receiver in Standard scoring in Week 1. Week 2 saw a big drop to a tie for 71st in fantasy points, and Ridley could end up closer to the latter than the former against Houston in Week 3. Ridley balled out in the opening game this season, his first in almost two years, with eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. I proclaimed him a weekly starter, a statement I admit was premature (though there's still a chance). His Week 2 produced just two catches for 32 yards.
Lawrence is an ascending quarterback, and Ridley has shown WR1 potential, but we saw that their connection may be up and down throughout the season. Week 3 is set to be a down week in a tough matchup against the Texans, whom Lawrence has struggled against in his career. Ridley might be hard to bench depending on your receiver depth, but he is a player who may disappoint this week.
Tight End
Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders
Like Jones at the quarterback position, Thomas isn’t a star, but he has finished 13th and fifth in Standard fantasy points in the first two weeks and is the third-highest scorer at the position. There weren’t many good options here, but Thomas is a good example of a player fantasy managers will see near the top of the tight end scoring and pick up, thinking they got a free agent steal.
Thomas started as a quarterback before switching to tight end in 2017, and he has had only one good season, finishing 2020 with a 72-670-6 line. He has otherwise topped out at 39 catches, 323 yards, and three touchdowns, and not all in the same season.
Thomas’s line so far projects to 51 catches for 552.5 yards over a full season, not bad production, but also not a consistent starter. His touchdown catch makes him one of just 14 tight ends to score this season (two players have two touchdowns), and that elevates his status among players at the position this early in the season.
Thomas has only played every game in a season twice and has only been fantasy-relevant in that 2020 season. The small sample and weird production of tight ends has him in a high spot right now, but there’s a reason he was on less than 10% of rosters in almost all fantasy platforms.
Adding to my lukewarm feeling on Thomas, Buffalo is very good against tight ends. They have allowed just four catches for 24 yards in 2023 and allowed the second-least fantasy points to tight ends in 2022. That included the fourth-least receiving yards to TEs last year and no touchdowns. Zero.
Tyler Conklin, Austin Hooper, and Michael Mayer are far from a murderer’s row to play against, but the Bills have done their job and shut down the position. A recent history of stopping tight ends and a good overall defense that can harass the quarterback, along with a middling player in Thomas, have me avoiding him in Week 3, regardless of his scoring status.
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