Can Lions' David Montgomery Keep Things Rolling, or is it Time to Deal Him?
The Detroit Lions seized control of the NFC North with a convincing 34-20 win over the Green Bay Packers on Thursday. David Montgomery powered the Lions on offense, which gained 401 total yards.
Montgomery’s big game helped add on to what’s been a strong start to the season for the running back. Fantasy owners are now wondering whether Montgomery can keep things going, or if Montgomery should be traded while his value is high. Let’s discuss.
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David Montogmery’s Big Game and Strong Start
Montgomery toted the rock 32 times despite being questionable to even play in the contest with a thigh injury. Montgomery gained 121 yards and had a long run of 16 yards.
His 121 yards were good enough for the fourth most in a single game in his career.
Those numbers would have been solid enough for fantasy owners that started him, but the Lions’ back also scored three touchdowns to put together one of the better fantasy showings from the position so far. He scored from 1,2 and 3 yards out.
After not doing much as a receiver in the first few weeks, Montgomery caught a pair of passes for an additional 20 yards.
Despite the team drafting Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Montgomery has been the No. 1 back and option in the three weeks he’s played.
Montgomery opened his season with 74 rushing yards and a touchdown on 21 carries against the Kansas City Chiefs. He followed that up with 67 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries despite playing less than 50% of the team’s offensive snaps against the Seattle Seahawks in week 2.
Montgomery’s big game against the Packers brings his season totals up to 262 rushing yards and five scores on 69 attempts. His most total touchdowns in a season was 10 with the Chicago Bears in 2020, so he’s already halfway to that mark. His 3.8-yard average is the second lowest of his career, but he’s simply getting so many carries that he’s creeping into the conversation of being one of the top fantasy backs this season.
Montgomery’s Fantasy Outlook
With each passing week, I keep expecting the Lions to start using Gibbs more, but it just hasn’t happened yet. It’s surprising the rookie doesn’t get more looks as he’s averaging 4.6 yards a carry. He only has 40 less total yards, but on 19 less touches.
Maybe this kind of approach is what the Lions are going to try all season in an effort to have both backs be as healthy and efficient as possible. It hasn’t hurt Montgomery’s stock, and Gibbs has put up solid numbers in the secondary role.
I know fantasy owners, especially dynasty ones, would appreciate Detroit to start giving Gibbs the lion’s share of work, but with this formula resulting in a 3-1 record, I don’t see it going anywhere. As the season rolls along and weather continues to get colder and tougher to play in, I’d expect exactly this kind of running back utilization.
In October, the Lions will face off against the Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Baltimore Ravens and Las Vegas Raiders. Carolina and Las Vegas have struggled to slow opposing running backs, while Baltimore has been average and Tampa Bay just a touch better than average. It’s a favorable stretch for the Detroit backs.
What to do with Montgomery
A month of games is enough to show what kind of offense a team hopes to have for the season. The Lions have been committed to utilizing both Montgomery and Gibbs this season, and I like that to continue for the next several weeks.
I’m not sure if Montgomery will be able to replicate the success he’s had through four weeks, especially in the touchdown department, but I like him to continue serving as the leader in rushing attempts. With that in mind, and seeing the favorable schedule ahead, I’d be against trading Montgomery away at this point.
He’s simply been too good of an investment for where you likely drafted him earlier this fall to sell now. His stock might drop a little bit over the next few weeks, but it shouldn’t plummet to a point where he’s not going to net you a solid return in a month or so.
I’d keep starting Montgomery until you have reason not to. If the Lions start feeding Gibbs more as the season rolls along and you are worried about Montgomery as the playoffs approach, that is the time I’d consider moving him. Montgomery might not get 30+ carries a game, but I like him to remain among the leaders in the NFL in carries, so that's an extremely valuable thing.
What to Offer for Montgomery
Do you believe Montgomery is going to remain the workhorse back all season and want to trade for him? If so, let’s take a look at what kind of trade package you might need to assemble to get a deal done.
Montgomery was ranked 69th in our player ratings as of this publication, but probably will jump closer to No. 50 before week 5 games are played.
One player ranked near Montgomery that catches my attention is Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. He’s started the season strong and is putting up some of the top numbers so far. If you drafted Cousins as a backup, then maybe simply a Cousins for Montgomery swap could get things done if the other team is lacking at the QB spot.
Take a look at your roster, determine which position you are strongest at (or let FantasySP’s Fantasy Assistant tool do the job for you), locate a player at that position that’s near Montgomery in the rankings and shoot out an initial offer. Montgomery’s strong start might make the asking price a touch higher, but he’s producing and getting enough work to still feel safe about tacking on an additional player to make the deal work.
