Evaluating Preseason Fantasy Football Predictions for the NFL's North Divisions: Derrick Henry, Tee Higgins, Sam Darnold and More Outplayed Expectations
Revisiting how bold predictions played out for every team in the AFC and NFC North.
Yesterday, I began a series of articles that will run through Friday in which I am looking back at bold fantasy predictions I made at the beginning of the season for each NFL team. It’s worth looking at those predictions for the sake of accountability, if nothing else, but I’m looking for a little more.
We can also learn lessons from the things that did and didn’t happen in 2024. There was a reason behind each pick; I wasn’t completely shooting from the hip (though that surely happened at times). Seeing who met expectations can give us clues about what we might be able to expect next season, both from the guys listed and similar players.
Let’s evaluate the predictions I made for the teams in the AFC and NFC North. We’ll go over the reason I made each guess, what happened, and the lesson we can learn. Fantasy points and scores are from FantasyPros and will be referenced often.
You can find the original prediction articles below.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry will be a top-five fantasy back
Reason: Henry had been a top-five back in standard scoring every year since 2019 except for 2021, when he played only eight games and was still RB14. He joined maybe the best running quarterback in football who would help open lanes for the veteran RB.
I was pretty sure Henry was being under-drafted when he was around 10th overall in fantasy drafts, but I didn’t know how high to push him. Turns out the top three is where he belonged. Henry was behind just Saquon Barkley in standard scoring among RBs and fourth in PPR (behind Jahmyr Gibbs, Barkley, and Bijan Robinson).
Henry had his most or second-most rushing yards, yards per attempt, rushing touchdowns, and receiving touchdowns. He had his third- or fourth-most receptions, receiving touchdowns, and yards per reception.
Lesson: Situation matters as much as (or more than) skill sometimes. Henry has undeniably been skilled his whole career, but it looked like he might be fading as his efficiency eroded for three straight seasons. Going to an excellent rushing attack (just like Barkley) propelled him back toward the top of the running back hierarchy.
Cincinnati Bengals: Tee Higgins will be among the top 20 wide receivers
Reason: Higgins was being drafted between the 30-40th receiver after a down 2023 in which he only played 12 games, and there was reason to believe he would regain his form after a season in which everything went wrong.
Higgins was seen as a borderline top-10 guy the year before, so it was weird to see him fall off so much, even considering the injuries and lower production. Joe Burrow also missed much of 2023 and was otherwise compromised, so Higgins seemed like a good candidate for a bounce back.
Well, he only played 12 games again in 2024, but he still nearly matched his career bests with 73 receptions and 911 yards. Higgins did set a new career high with 10 touchdowns. It was clear he still had the old Tee in him as he put together his best per-game season.
His outlook for 2025 will depend on where he ends up, as Higgins played this season on the franchise tag, but a return to Cincinnati would put him back in the fantasy starter tier.
Lesson: Be aware of big-time players coming off quiet seasons, whether because of injury or something else. Christian McCaffrey, for instance, had a lost season in 2024 and will fall down draft boards a bit heading into next year, but he has the potential to lead all backs again in 2025.
Cleveland Browns: Nick Chubb will be a top-10 running back from Weeks 10-18
Reason: The former star was coming off a gruesome knee injury early in 2023 that was likely to cost him the start of 2024, but he could have been stepping back into a playoff team if things broke right with a chance to be a major reinforcement.
Chubb was a nice stash player if your league had an IR spot where he could sit until he returned to action. He made his debut in Week 7 and showed a few flashes, but Chubb was horribly inefficient (3.3 yards per carry versus his career mark of 5.1) and was back on IR for the final three weeks of the season.
He was always going to be a risky player, and it didn’t work out for Chubb or the Browns this year. His contract is up, so it’s unclear where he will play, but there will be some who hope for a resurgence given his former status as a star and more time away from the injury.
Lesson: A major injury can take away a lot from an impactful player, especially right when he returns. Age also plays a factor; Chubb will turn 30 next season, an ancient mark for a running back.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Fields will finish among the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks
Reason: Fields was set to begin the season as the starter while Russell Wilson was out, and there was a reasonable thought that Fields would be successful and keep the starting job. As a quarterback who generates a lot of yards with his feet, he would have racked up fantasy points along the way.
Fields started the first six games of the season and was QB6 during that time. He didn’t have a bye while several other QBs did, but Fields was 10 points ahead of 10th place and 20 points ahead of 15th place. He could have easily been a top-15 player at this position.
Wilson took the job when he returned, though, and Fields was relegated to spot work, throwing one pass and running the ball seven times the rest of the season.
Lesson: Running quarterbacks score more fantasy points. It’s true at the top, and it’s true for the middling players. No one will confuse Fields as a top-10 real-life quarterback, but he can hit that mark in fantasy, and he might get a chance next season.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: D.J. Moore will be a top-10 wide receiver
Reason: Moore had his best season in 2023 while catching passes from Fields and Tyson Bagent, and now he was getting the top overall pick as his new QB, a player in Caleb Williams who was seen as a generational prospect.
Moore had four more targets and two more catches than last season, but he dropped from 1,364 to only 966 receiving yards. His 9.9 yards per reception were a full 2.5 less than any other season of his career.
He also went down from eight to six touchdowns, and it all came together to a WR22 finish in standard and WR16 in PPR. That’s still good, but it’s not to the star level he showed previously.
We will still expect Moore to be a top-20 guy next season, but he will lose some luster from that 2023 shine. There will again be major expectations on both Williams and the Bears to improve after hiring Ben Johnson away from Detroit as their head coach.
Lesson: Rookies take time to develop. Seeing guys like Jayden Daniels go nuts in their first year spoils us, but most players at every position need time. This is a good lesson for Shedeur Sanders in fantasy; it won’t be a surprise to see him struggle at times, which would make his receivers risky fantasy players.
Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams will be a top-40 fantasy receiver
Reason: Detroit needed someone to step up as their WR2, and Williams was a former 12th overall pick entering his third season who had his previous preseasons/early seasons interrupted by injury and a gambling suspension.
Williams finished as WR13 in standard and WR22 in PPR. He gets to run the ball on trick plays and reverses, part of the reason he performed markedly better in standard. He also does more deep work rather than possession, which will always push him down the PPR board a little.
Detroit is losing their offensive coordinator, but most other things on offense are going to be the same. Williams will be drafted close to the top 20 receivers next year.
Lesson: A top-12 pick on maybe the best offense in football? Sometimes we overthink things. Remember this if the 49ers move on from Deebo Samuel Sr. this offseason and 2024 first-round pick Ricky Pearsall steps into the starting lineup.
Green Bay Packers: Green Bay will have a starting-level player in at least three of the four offensive fantasy positions
Reason: The Packers had a stacked roster with skill players at each position who projected in the top 20 (or top 10) in fantasy.
Let’s run through the positional finishes:
- Jordan Love QB17
- Josh Jacobs RB5 in standard and RB6 in PPR
- Jayden Reed WR21 in standard and WR29 in PPR
- Tucker Kraft TE7 in standard and TE10 in PPR
I mean, we were close. Love missed two full games and most of a third. He was 50 fantasy points from Patrick Mahomes at 11th, a number he could have possibly reached in the two-and-a-half games he missed, but Love was down from last year when he was QB5.
Jacobs was better in fantasy than he was in real life, but you can’t argue with where he finished. Luke Musgrave was supposed to be the tight end to break out, but Kraft took that leap instead and finished as a fantasy starter.
That leaves us with Reed. The Packers don’t have a traditional top receiver; Reed is the closest thing. They have good depth, though, something that can lead to winning if someone can come up in the big moments. Reed was barely out of starter range in standard and a little lower in PPR, but he does make the cut in three-WR leagues. That’s close enough, right?
Lesson: It will likely be a similar story next season. Green Bay will be a good team, and they will have relevant fantasy players at every position. It’s not always exciting, but it’s consistent.
Minnesota Vikings: Sam Darnold will finish among the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks
Reason: The Vikings had thrown the ball as much as any team in the league since coach Kevin O’Connell took over in 2022, and it didn’t seem like they were about to overhaul the playbook with Justin Jefferson still leading the way.
Darnold finished as QB9. He started the year hot and looked like he might set the team’s future plans on fire with rookie first rounder J.J. McCarthy, who missed the season with injury. Darnold settled in as more of a mid-level player, though, both in real life and fantasy.
It will be interesting to see how Minnesota handles the Darnold situation; I predict they will put the franchise tag on Darnold then trade him to a team who misses out on a quarterback in the draft or someone like Pittsburgh, who is set up to contend but with a hole at QB.
