Chiefs' Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Breakdown | Can You Trust Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman?
Mecole Hardman is rejoining the Kansas City Chiefs after six disappointing weeks with the New York Jets (many have suffered longer). Kansas City’s passing game revolves around Travis Kelce and involves a lot of volume for running backs: Isiah Pacheco is tied for 11th among backs with 17 catches, and Jerick McKinnon is tied for 27th with 12 of his own.
The receivers for the Chiefs are an afterthought at times, a group of undersized speedsters who are used as gadget players as much as they produce like classic wide receivers. That is all true, but it also undersells the fantasy impact they can have individually.
(That last point is important: I’m talking strictly in terms of fantasy here. Kansas City has as peculiar an offensive structure as any team in the league, and the receivers do their job, sometimes waiting for their superstar quarterback to make plays.)
The addition of Hardman leaves KC with five similar fantasy receivers: Hardman, Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Justin Watson could be considered as well, but he sustained an injury and might miss a few weeks, so I’ll leave him out here (though he falls into the same category).
Of those five players:
- Rice has the most targets (28) and receptions (21)
- Toney is second in both categories with 25 and 17, respectively
- Valdes-Scantling is last in both categories
- Rice also leads the group with 245 yards and two touchdowns
- Toney (five times), Moore (three), and Rice (one) have run the ball
- Toney threw one pass, which fell incomplete
Again, they are not used in a traditional way, and they can’t be valued based on standard receiving production alone. Rice is a legitimate WR3 and doesn’t need much explanation.
I don’t trust Valdes-Scantling because he is the least active; I think it’s fair to say he should only be rostered in the most extreme circumstances (though he’s near the top of the bottom tier, along with Watson). The other three are somewhere in the middle.
Kadarius Toney Fantasy Outlook
I’m going to start with Toney because I’m holding on tight to that bandwagon, even after the disastrous Week 1 and an average of -0.4 yards per rush: that’s negative-zero-point-four. His five rushes have produced negative-two yards.
Even after the drops, the lack of production, and a fumble, though, the Chiefs are still looking for ways to get Toney the ball. He has essentially played only five games because he went into Week 3 injured and only played two snaps as they blew out the Bears. Taking out that week, he has averaged over four touches and nearly five targets per game.
That doesn’t sound like a lot, but we’re talking about players to consider for your WR3/flex spots, not top options. He’s only five targets behind the top 50 receivers, and many of his touches are designed specifically for him. He’s not running routes in hopes of getting the ball: the offense runs a screen or running play because they want Toney involved.
He caught a touchdown and had a 65-yard punt return in the Super Bowl, so we’ve seen him excel in limited touches. As the season goes on, I expect Toney to get the most chances of any of these receivers. Rice may have more traditional catches, but Toney will get the ball in space with a chance to pick up big yardage.
Skyy Moore Fantasy Outlook
Moore was a second-round pick in 2022 and struggled to find consistency as a rookie, topping three catches just twice, scoring no touchdowns, and losing three fumbles. There were high hopes coming into his second season, but things have been uneven: outside of seven catches for 112 yards and a touchdown over Weeks 2 and 3, Moore has combined for four catches and 33 yards, getting shut out twice (but adding 23 rushing yards).
Like Toney, Moore has just one touchdown. Those two and Rice have four combined touchdowns, and they have been spread over four separate weeks. Choosing a Chiefs’ receiver in fantasy is a game of Russian Roulette, knowing that one will be good but unsure who will go off.
Mecole Hardman Fantasy Outlook
One more chamber was added to that game when the team re-acquired Hardman. He played every game for the Chiefs from 2019-2021 and averaged 42 catches, 597 yards, and four touchdowns, adding 94 total rushing yards. In just eight games in 2022, Hardman had 328 total yards and six touchdowns.
He was a consistently productive player, if never a star. That fits with what we expect from this group, and it’s reasonable to expect from Hardman again. The question is: how long does it take him to get up to speed?
Much of the playbook and terminology is surely still the same, so Hardman is starting from ahead. He could play this week, but it will probably take a few weeks before he acclimates to his role in the offense, leaving him unlikely to provide fantasy production right away. Once he is ready, though, he could be in line to see as much work as any wide receiver on the team.
The Verdict
In deep and three-receiver leagues, any Kansas City receiver is worth considering for your roster:
- Rice has been the most productive wide receiver and is a WR3 player who can be considered for a WR2 spot some weeks.
- Toney is a wild card: I love how the team wants to get him involved, but the results haven’t been there most weeks. He is my favorite player from this group and could pay dividends if you give him a spot at the end of your bench.
- Moore is a player you can plug into a WR3 spot if you don’t have any good options with hopes that he’s the one to have a big week. He hasn’t been close to consistent, though, and I’d prefer Rice, Toney, or Hardman.
- Hardman isn’t going to be a fantasy starter right away, but the Chiefs have their bye in Week 10, and that would give him a month to get back up to speed and have a long break to get fully integrated into the offense. I like the idea of grabbing Hardman for the end of your bench in hopes he can make a difference.
- Valdes-Scantling, Watson, and any other KC receiver can be considered if you’re super desperate because Patrick Mahomes does magical things, but these players aren’t worth having on your roster in any other scenario.
Remember: you can drop a player any time, so it’s good to pick up guys with high ceilings, like those in the Kansas City offense. Your WR3 and flex spots aren’t usually going to be consistent contributors; find players with a chance to go off in the right matchup and hope for the best.
Don’t go out of your way for any of these players, but there are much worse options than guys trying to make a connection with Mahomes. Kelce and the backs will do a lot of the work, but there is more to go around in Kansas City.
