Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Week 8 Target: Should You Add Bills' Dalton Kincaid After Breakout Game?

A rookie tight end has emerged as a potential waiver wire priority for a second straight week.

It was Las Vegas Raiders’ Michael Mayer that put forth a strong showing in week 6 to garner waiver wire interest in week 7. Buffalo Bills’ Dalton Kincaid delivered a strong showing in week 7, which has him on waiver wire lists going into week 8.

Let’s break down what Kincaid did in week 7, along with his season stats, then determine whether or not he can keep producing going forward and then finally deciding how he might stack up against other potential waiver wire targets.

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Kincaid’s Breakout Game

Fantasy owners have been waiting for a breakout game all season after Kincaid was the 25th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. 

Owners got their wish in week 7, when Kincaid delivered against the New England Patriots. Before we get into the numbers, let’s say that Kincaid’s output was impressive, as the Patriots’ defense is one of the better ones in the league against opposing tight ends, at least coming into the week.

Kincaid was targeted eight times, making eight catches for 75 yards. There wasn’t anything super flashy about the performance, with a long catch of 15 yards, but he was the team’s second-most targeted pass catcher, behind only star wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The rookie tight end led the team in catches and yards.

The Rookie’s Overall Stats

The breakout game against a strong defense really came out of nowhere, as Kincaid has been kind of an afterthought for the Bills so far.

Coming into the game, Kincaid had only been targeted five or more times in two of the five games he played in. He had two games with two targets, including one in week 5, which was his last game. Kincaid missed week 6 because of a concussion.

The most catches the rookie had made in a game was five, and his most receiving yards was 43. His long catch of the season was 14 yards.

Even though the Bills have Dawson Knox on the roster at the same position, Kincaid’s lack of involvement in the passing game wasn’t for a lack of playing time. The rookie played 80% of the team’s snaps in week 1, and then was between 50-60% played in weeks 2-5.

Kincaid jumped over 60% this week, mostly because he was consistently getting open for quarterback Josh Allen.

Kincaid’s Fantasy Outlook

I’m about as skeptical as fantasy owners come when trying to determine if a player’s breakout game is sustainable. The fact is, the Bills don’t have a ton of options in the passing game and need someone to step up. Kincaid can be that guy.

Diggs, of course, leads the team in just about every receiving statistic. He’s always going to be who Allen looks to first. After that, nobody else has been all that consistent. 

Gabe Davis has three games with over 60 receiving yards, but four games at or below 35 yards. He caught just one pass in week 7, which marks the second time this season he’s only caught one pass.

Knox is the guy with the next most targets, but he hasn’t produced much of anything with his looks. He also caught one pass against the Pats, marking the third time he’s had one grab. For the season, Knox has 15 catches for 102 yards.

The only other pass catcher with any decent numbers is Deonte Harty. Sixty-two of his 113 receiving yards came in one contest, which tells you everything you need to know about his consistency.

Running backs James Cook and Latavius Murray are both solid pass catchers, but the team would much rather have them focus on running the ball. 

It’s just one game of solid production for Kincaid, but the team has to at least be hopeful that he can be the missing pass catcher they’ve been in search of. 

Should You Add Kincaid?

Like I said with Mayer last week, it’s not often you can find waiver wire help at the tight end position. Sure, there’s the random TE that produces a big week, only to never come close to those numbers again. The thing that intrigued me with Mayer and now Kincaid is that they were both specifically drafted to help their team’s passing games out.

It took a bit for Kincaid to produce a big game, but now that he has, the sky's the limit going forward. I’d absolutely target Kincaid on the waiver wire, even if you have one of the elite options at the positions. This week’s box score proves Kincaid doesn’t need to score to put up solid fantasy numbers, so he could absolutely be a flex option.

In terms of where you should put him on your waiver wire priority list, that depends on what exactly you are in need of. If you are set at every position but tight end, then Kincaid should be your top target.

If you aren’t necessarily in need of a potential starter and are just trying to strengthen your bench, I’d still put Kincaid pretty high up your priority list. Again, he’s a rookie that was drafted to help out Buffalo’s offense. A one-week breakout game for him means a little more than the player that’s been in the league for several years and just produced his third or fourth relevant fantasy showing ever.

Kincaid might not produce a similar statline to the one he had in week 7 on a weekly basis, but I have a good feeling he can be a consistent receiver by the time the fantasy playoffs are here. Grab him and stash him at the very least.

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