Thursday Night Football Preview Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears: NFL Best Bets and Props, Adam Thielen and Chuba Hubbard
Thursday Night Football Week 10 sees two teams with recent history face off. The Chicago Bears traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Carolina Panthers for a package of premium draft picks and top receiver D.J. Moore.
Moore has been good, but top pick Bryce Young has struggled in his short career (while second pick C.J. Stroud goes nuts in Houston). Things are surely tense in Carolina as Young continues to get his NFL legs, but it’s all about the future for the Panthers.
The Bears can say the same thing, and they have Carolina’s first-round pick on top of their own, projecting possibly two top-five selections in the 2024 Draft. This is about Week 10, though, so let’s dive into the relevant players for Thursday night’s game.
Quarterbacks
Tyson Bagent, CHI: Non-Starter
Bagent had 70 rushing yards in Week 9 and was the ninth-highest scoring QB, according to Fantasy Pros, but he hasn’t been higher than 20th in any of his other three starts. Carolina has allowed the fifth-least passing yards per game. Bench Bagent boldly but briskly. (If Justin Fields happens to play, you could consider starting him, but Carolina has a good D, and I’d skip Fields if I could.)
Bryce Young, CAR: Streaming Option
The Bears, on the other hand, have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game and the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. ESPN projects Young above only four other starting quarterbacks in Week 10 fantasy points. He is likely to out-play that status, and the question is whether he’s a worthy fantasy starter this week.
Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts are all on bye: fantasy owners need fill-ins. Young is a worthy candidate because of the matchup, and I prefer him to other likely free agent QBs ranked ahead of him, like Taylor Heinicke, Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love and Derek Carr.
Young isn’t a must-start player, but he’s a guy to consider and possible top-10 quarterback in Week 10. Young has also struggled to produce consistently, and some owners will prefer a more stable option, which I can’t argue with.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard, CAR: Start, RB2/flex
Hubbard has taken over as the bell cow for Carolina: Miles Sanders hasn’t touched the ball more than nine times in any game over the last month. Hubbard’s spot as a clear lead back makes him an immediate player to consider in fantasy.
Chicago has given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They allow the fourth-least rushing yards per game, oddly enough, but have been torn apart in the passing game by running backs, giving up 578 yards and five touchdowns, both most in the league.
Hubbard has caught at least one pass in every game and multiple passes in six of eight games. Sanders catches the ball a little (three receptions last week), but his playing time has been dwarfed by Hubbard the last few weeks.
Hubbard is a really good option for Week 10 if you need to replace D’Andre Swift, Isiah Pacheco or Raheem Mostert. Sanders can be considered as a flex if you’re scraping the barrel; he’s not the worst option, but you can find better (hopefully).
D’Onta Foreman, CHI: Start, RB2
The Panthers allow the most fantasy points per game to running backs and the fifth-most total rushing yards per game. If there’s a team to target with running backs in fantasy, it’s Carolina. Foreman has taken control of the Chicago backfield since Khalil Herbert went on IR, leading the team in carries every game since Week 6.
Speaking of Herbert, he was activated from IR but is uncertain to play this week. If he does play, I’d treat both players as flex options with more faith in Foreman. Roschon Johnson and Darrynton Evans have roles, and both are super-deep streaming options if you’re desperate.
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen, CAR: Must-Start, WR1/2
Chicago is worse than the league average in terms of giving up fantasy points to wide receivers. As mentioned above, they've allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game. Thielen is a borderline top-10 receiver this week.
D.J. Chark scored a touchdown last week and has three on the season, but he has reached 30 receiving yards only twice. Jonathan Mingo is an exciting rookie who should get more playing time moving forward, and he’s had games with four and five catches over the past month. Both receivers are boom-or-bust players who can be considered as a WR3/flex if you’re desperate.
D.J. Moore, CHI: Sit
Moore has been really good to start 2023: five touchdowns, six games with at least 50 yards, and eight games with at least 40 yards. This is a tough matchup against a Carolina team giving up the fifth-least passing yards and fifth-least fantasy points per game to receivers.
Moore is a WR3/flex player at best, though his skill give him a higher ceiling than other players in that realm (like the Carolina guys after Thielen). No other Chicago receiver, including Darnell Mooney, should be counted on this week.
Tight Ends
Hayden Hurst, CAR; Tommy Tremble, CAR: Must-Sit
No…just no.
Cole Kmet, CHI: Sit (if possible)
Kmet has been in the PPR top 10 five times and outside the top 20 the other four weeks. Carolina has allowed the second-least receiving yards and 11th-least fantasy points per game to tight ends this year. Kmet has been boom-or-bust, and he seems more likely to bust this week. Kmet is a borderline starter but more of a TE2; you might not have a better option.
Betting Tips
In honor of the usual author of this colum, Mark Morales-Smith, I’ll give you my best bets for the Thursday night game. All lines, odds, and numbers are from FanDuel as of Nov. 7.
Line: Carolina +3.5; Moneyline: Carolina +160 (NOT Bears -190 under any circumstances; yuck.)
I don’t highly recommend either bet here, but there are worse ones you could make this week. I especially like the plus-3.5.
Best Props
There are no Bears props currently listed because of the uncertainty of who will play at quarterback and running back, so let’s hit two Carolina numbers. I feel decent about both picks, but neither is close to a lock.
Adam Thielen OVER 72.5 yards
I already touched on the Bears’ pass D. TL;DR: They suck. Thielen has hit 72 yards in five of eight games, with another at 54. A bad defense against a successful receiver screams over to me. Thielen has excelled even in some of Young’s worst games.
Chuba Hubbard OVER 60.5 rushing + receiving yards
The Bears have given up nearly 36% more passing yards to running backs than the second-place Chargers, a difference of 152 yards. Hubbard has gained over 60 total yards two of the past three weeks (53 the other week) while dominating the touches. I like his chances of hitting this number and see him getting involved both on the ground and through the air.