Fantasy Stars Who Will Struggle in Week 11: Josh Allen, Isiah Pacheco, Adam Thielen and Evan Engram

Sometimes, things just go right. That’s what happened last week with my projections for fantasy stars who would struggle. The results:

• Trevor Lawrence had 185 passing yards and turned it over three times. A San Francisco defense on a three-game losing streak and coming off the bye showed up and made a statement.
• Derrick Henry touched the ball 12 times and gained 20 total yards; that included one reception for negative-four yards. Henry couldn’t find volume or efficiency.
• Davante Adams had a productive day with six receptions for 86 yards, but he was outside the top 20 receivers in both standard and PPR.
• Mark Andrews only caught two passes for 44 yards against a Browns defense that has devoured tight ends.

It’s going to be hard to top that performance, but let’s try in Week 11. This week’s group includes a superstar, a Super Bowl winner, an aging star who may be fading out, and a tight end stuck in the middle.

 

Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Allen hits the highest of highs, but we’ve also seen him lose games for his team, as was the case in Week 10 (he wasn’t the only one to blame, but Allen turned the ball over three times). Up next are the Jets, who have allowed the fifth-least fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Allen’s running usually guarantees him a spot among the starting QBs in fantasy: he has finished as a top 10 quarterback in seven of 10 weeks, with his other finishes 13th, 15th, and 20th (according to Fantasy Pros, which will be referenced a lot). 

That 15th-place finish was last week against Denver. Three turnovers and 177 yards still ended up as a decent performance because of a rushing touchdown. Allen has run in a touchdown in seven of 10 games.

The 20th-place finish was that Week 1 debacle against the Jets when Allen turned it over four times and the Bills lost a game in which a cold Zach Wilson played most of the snaps for the other team. Allen tends to struggle for stretches, and a matchup against this dominant defense points to another slow day for the dynamic QB.

 

Running Back

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

Pacheco has the 19th-most PPR points and 20th-most standard points among running backs; that’s not the production of a star, but he has finished as a top-20 back in five of his nine weeks (with a bye last week). Pacheco also benefits from playing with the best quarterback in the world, so there’s that.

The issue is his Week 11 opponent. Philadelphia has shown up in this column a lot because they dominate running games and don’t allow teams to move the ball on the ground.

Kansas City likes to rotate backs at times (even though Pacheco leads the way), and they sometimes ignore the run while expecting Patrick Mahomes to make magic. That’s not the worst plan, but it limits Pacheco’s effectiveness, and this looks like one of those games.

The Eagles have allowed the least rushing yards, least fantasy points, and least fantasy points per game to running backs. There are a ton of stats; the important thing is that Pacheco is likely to have no room to run and will be dependent on a touchdown.

Pacheco is a player to sit in Week 11; I think Mahomes will finish with more rushing yards than Pacheco in this game.

 

Wide Receiver

Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys

In a five-game stretch from Weeks 2-6, Thielen was the top receiver in PPR and third highest in standard scoring. He had four games over 75 yards (three over 100 yards) and scored four touchdowns during that time.

Things have flipped since the Week 7 bye: while he does have 19 catches in the last three games, Thielen is tied for 29th in PPR scoring and 48th in standard scoring from Weeks 8-10, not scoring a touchdown.

Some of this is due to randomness, but Thielen isn’t set up for success. Bryce Young may have a bright future, but his rookie season has been a consistent struggle. Young hasn’t hit 250 yards in a game; he has been below 200 yards four times, including each of the last two games.

If a negative trend and struggling offense weren’t enough, the Panthers face Dallas in Week 11, the team that has allowed the least catches and second-least receiving yards to wide receivers. They’ve also allowed the fifth-least fantasy points per game to the position.

Thielen is a player to sit in Week 11, and I don’t like his prospects moving forward. Young will probably improve, but it’s likely to be a bumpy road the rest of the season, and Thielen will feel the effects.

 

Tight End

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

First, Tennessee: they have allowed the third-least fantasy points per game and fourth-least receiving yards to tight ends. The Titans are the only team in the league to not allow a touchdown to a tight end.

Now, Engram: he has not caught a touchdown in 2023. Engram is unstart-able in standard scoring this week, but PPR has been his saving grace. The question is whether Engram can reach a starting level in that format in a tough matchup.

Jacksonville was shut down last week by the 49ers, and Engram was part of the struggle: he caught four passes, but they only gained 12 yards, leaving him outside the top 20 at his position. San Francisco is allowing essentially the same amount of fantasy points to tight ends as Tennessee.

This looks like another week in which Engram catches a few passes but doesn’t produce many yards and is shut out of the end zone. (It would be hilarious if Engram’s first touchdown was also the first score the Titans allowed to the position, though.) I see Engram as a player to sit in all formats.