Fantasy Stars Who Will Struggle in Week 12: Justin Herbert, Alvin Kamara, Tyreek Hill

It’s Thanksgiving week; time is flying, and the NFL season is quietly creeping toward the last third of the campaign. Things will still change, but the performance of teams against individual positions is becoming a picture rather than a collection of brushstrokes.

Matchups dictate a lot in the NFL, both in terms of wins and losses and player performances. Sitting fantasy stars is hard and not feasible some weeks; when you have a good backup plan, though, it can save your week.

Last week’s picks for fantasy stars likely to struggle resulted in one good choice, one bad choice, and two in the middle:

• Josh Allen did Josh Allen things (in a good way this time) while his Bills dominated the Jets. Without an 81-yard completion to Khalil Shakir, Allen would have been under 200 yards; instead, three touchdowns and 275 yards made for a top 10 QB performance in Week 11.
• Isiah Pacheco had maybe the best day a back has had against the Eagles this year. His 20 touches for 91 yards were just OK, but it looked more impressive in real time.
• Adam Thielen pulled off a bit of magic: as Bryce Young threw for only 123 yards, Thielen gained 74 of them. All other Panthers had just 49 receiving yards combined. That made for a decent day for Thielen, but his upside is seriously limited by this struggling Carolina offense.
• Evan Engram continues to be shut out of the end zone, and four catches for 29 yards didn’t make up for that in Week 11. He’s a player on a cold streak who probably needs to be benched against good defenses.

I’m not going home for Thanksgiving, so we may as well go big: the names on this week’s list of fantasy stars who might struggle is a Pro Bowl lineup. At least one of these guys will likely finish in the top 10 at his position, but they all have tough matchups that could derail their Week 12.

 

Quarterback

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens

Despite the Chargers finding creative ways to lose close games, their young quarterback has been consistently good. Fantasy Pros says that Herbert has been a top 10 fantasy quarterback in seven of his 10 weeks, with 12th-, 21st-, and 25th-place finishes mixed in.

Those finishes in the 20s were against the Chiefs in Week 7 and the Jets in Week 9; those teams are both in the top 10 in fewest passing yards per game allowed and fewest fantasy points per game allowed to QBs. Herbert’s worst performances were against very good pass defenses.

That’s not surprising, but it is relevant, as the Ravens come to town in Week 12. Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game and second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They also lead the league with 44 sacks.

While Herbert is a weekly fantasy starter, he’s likely to have one of his quietest weeks against a tough Baltimore defense. You might not have a better option, but it’s worth looking at streaming possibilities, like Gardner Minshew against Tampa Bay or Joshua Dobbs against the Bears.

 

Running Back

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Kamara keeps producing, finishing as a top-25 standard back and top-20 PPR back every week he has played (he missed the first three weeks). Kamara has had at least 70 total yards and caught at least three passes in every game; he’s had at least seven receptions in four of seven games.

So, why best against Kamara? The Falcons have been very good against running backs, allowing the third-least fantasy points per game to the position. They have been average against the run, but Atlanta has nullified the thing Kamara does best.

The Falcons are tied for the third-least receptions allowed to running backs, and they have given up the seventh-least receiving yards to backs. Without that receiving production, Kamara loses half of his value and is more dependent on a touchdown.

He might get in the end zone, but that’s not as easy a proposition as catching the ball six times in an average game. Kamara is still an RB2, but he’s less likely to be a top-10 back this week.

 

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Well, this is scary. Hill is the most dynamic receiver in football; with all due respect to Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and several others, I would be more scared of Hill than any other receiver in football as a defensive player.

The Jets are a legit defense, though. They have allowed the least total receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Every receiver struggles against New York.

Hill has played two games against the Jets as a member of the Dolphins (both in 2022); those contests must be argued in favor of the defense. Hill did have seven catches in Week 5, but those produced only 47 yards. Week 18 was a different story: two catches for 23 yards.

Tua missed both of those games, so there is reason for hope that Hill can have a better performance. I’m not recommending you bench him, because, come on, but this is one of the most likely weeks for Hill to finish outside the top 20 at his position. I am sitting Jaylen Waddle with no qualms.

 

Tight End

None

There aren’t any high-end tight ends with bad matchups this week. The closest thing is Travis Kelce against a surprising Raiders defense, but I’m not going down that road. Instead, I’ll name a few streaming players to skip in Week 12:

• Gerald Everett and Donald Parham, Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens
• Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs
• Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
• Hunter Henry, New England Patriots @ New York Giants

The Ravens and Chiefs both have really good defenses, and that extends to their work against tight ends. The Cardinals and Giants aren’t as high-profile, but they each have good defensive players and have been effective shutting down TEs this season.