Week 12 Fantasy Football Early Start/Sit Decisions: Should You Start Jared Goff, Zach Charbonnet and Tua Tagovailoa?

Week 12 of the NFL season is a unique one in terms of the schedule.

There’s three games on Thursday and another on Friday. Usually, we tackle stories on each team playing in early games, but this week, we’re going to switch things up and address some start/sit decisions from trending players in one story.

As of this publication, the popular names in the FantasySP “Who Should I Start?” tool are Detroit Lions’ Jared Goff, Seattle Seahawks’ Zach Charbonnet and Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa.

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Jared Goff Fantasy Outlook

Goff and the Lions open up week 12 with a game against the Green Bay Packers. 

We’ve already seen this matchup this season, with the Lions prevailing in Green Bay 34-20 (it wasn’t really that close). Goff completed 19-of-28 passes that day for 210 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Goff didn’t need to do a whole lot, as the Lions rushed for 211 yards on 43 attempts.

It might be a similar gameplan for the Lions in week 12, as Green Bay still is pretty strong in slowing down quarterbacks, but below average against the run. 

I was surprised to see that Goff has reached 200 passing yards in every contest - something not many quarterbacks can boast. His lowest amount of passing yards was against the Packers. Goff has multiple touchdown passes in five contests, and has only one game without a TD pass. Turnovers have always been Goff’s big negative, and he threw three picks against the Chicago Bears last week.

After the down game and on a short week, I expect the Lions to rely on their ground game and just leave Goff to be a game manager. If he can take care of the ball and throw a pair of touchdowns, he could finish at a top-10 fantasy QB this week.

Goff is ranked 12th amongst QBs in the week 12 projections. I think his projected numbers are pretty fair, but I think a couple quarterbacks listed below him end up above him. I think Goff will ultimately land right in the middle of the fantasy leaders in week 12.

Some quarterbacks he’s currently in trending decisions within the start/sit tool are Justin Fields (ranked 11th), Tagovailoa (18th), Justin Herbert (8th) and Trevor Lawrence (7th). I’d take Goff over Herbert given the matchups, but take Fields, Tagovailoa and Lawrence over Goff.

If you have a different quarterback to put Goff against in a start/sit decision, probably the only way I’m taking Goff is if his matchup is more favorable than the other QB. Check out the defensive rankings and make a decision accordingly.

Zach Charbonnett Fantasy Outlook

Charbonnet and the Seahawks will be taking on the San Francisco 49ers in a big Thanksgiving clash. Charbonnet could be the lead back for Seattle if Kenneth Walker is out with an oblique injury, which seems likely as he hadn’t practiced through Tuesday.

Charbonnet had already been trending toward being a possible fantasy starter with some extra touches and snaps over the past several games. 

After taking over for Walker last week, Charbonnet had 47 rushing yards on 15 carries and caught all six of his targets for 22 yards. The 69 scrimmage yards and 21 touches were new season highs for the first-year player.

If Walker misses the game, you can bet Charbonnet will be the team’s lead back against the Niners. It’s a pretty tough matchup for the rookie, as San Fran’s defense allows just 18 fantasy points per week. In PPR formats, Charbonnet should hold some extra value, as the Niners allow an average of 35 receiving yards on five catches.

Charbonnet was the 29th-ranked running back in the projections as of this publication, but that could get a little bump up if Walker is ruled out.

If Walker does indeed miss the contest, I’d expect Charbonnet to soar past his projections of 12 carries and 2.3 catches. As long as the Seahawks can keep things close, I’d also expect him to finish with more than 64 scrimmage yards.

Charbonnet might end up being in every trending decision at the running back position by the time his game kicks off. Instead of comparing him to a number of backs, let me summarize things.

If Walker does not play, I expect Charbonnet to be a top-20 fantasy back. I’d also say that the lead back workload is enough where you should feel confident starting him in all formats. It’s a tough matchup, but he should get plenty of enough touches to where he’ll put up a decent amount of fantasy points, and if he can score, or catch several passes, a top-10 fantasy finish is possible.

Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Outlook

If you haven’t looked at the schedule for week 12 yet, you might be wondering why Tagovailoa is even part of start/sit decisions. He and the Dolphins will be taking on the tough New York Jets’ defense, which should answer your thoughts.

Tagovailoa threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns last week, which marked the fifth time he’s topped 300 passing yards and sixth time he’s thrown multiple touchdowns. 

This season, the Jets have given up fewer passing yards (1,787) than they’ve thrown for (1,995), which is wild considering Zach Wilson was their starting quarterback pretty much all season. New York has allowed 12 passing touchdowns, while picking off 10 passes. I won’t bother adding in rushing totals, because Tagovailoa doesn’t do much of that this season.

Overall, the Jets allow opposing quarterbacks to score just 14 fantasy points per week. 

Now that I’ve given you all the numbers that suggest benching Tagovailoa in week 12, let me give you some reasons why the start/sit decision isn’t that easy.

The Jets’ defense was just gashed by the Buffalo Bills in week 11 for 393 total yards. Josh Allen threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw one interception.

I get that it’s a tough matchup for Tagovailoa, but I also don’t think he’s going to finish as the 18th-best fantasy QB this week, like the projections are saying. Even if he does turn the ball over a time or two, I think he can finish as a top-15 QB, and I actually like him to be inside the top 12.

Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ offense are no joke, and after the battering the Jets’ defense took last week, I don’t anticipate the Jets being able to completely bog down the Dolphins’ offense. 

Tagovailoa is currently part of trending decisions with Kyler Murray, Goff, Herbert and Fields. You already know I like Tagovailoa over Goff, and I also like the Dolphins’ quarterback more than Fields and Herbert. It’s a toss up for me between Murray and Tagovailoa, but I’d give a slight edge to Murray because of his running ability.

If you have another quarterback you are debating starting over Tagovailoa, let me just say this. Tagovailoa has been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks this season and has rarely put up average or poor numbers. Some of his lower passing yardage games are against better defenses, but if he can throw a couple touchdowns, he should again be right among the QB leaders by the time week 12 wraps up.