Bet The Over: Why Bailey Zappe, Devin Singletary, Tyreek Hill and Evan Engram Will Top Their Yardage Over/Under in Week 13

Player prop bets aren’t as popular as those on the game line or total score, but there is value to be found when comparing matchup, player opportunity, and potential performance. Superstars are a great place to start, but lesser players with great matchups and modest over/under numbers sometimes represent better value.

Let’s focus on a player at each position with one reason (or more) to expect a productive week, making for a good “over” bet on their yardage. While these may seem like good bets, nothing is ever guaranteed, so no matter how sure I may seem, use caution when placing your bets.

All lines are from FanDuel and correct as of Dec. 1. (I find FanDuel to be the best app for player props, but it pays to shop around for the best line and odds.)

Quarterback

Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers: OVER 201.5 passing yards

It appears Zappe is going to start in Week 13, and he has one of the most favorable matchups a quarterback could ask for. A few facts:

• The Chargers are allowing 280 passing yards per game, 12.2 more than any other team (4.6%). No team has finished a season at 280 or higher since 2020.
• That inflated number isn’t just due to volume, either: the Chargers are allowing the third-most passing yards per attempt (7.3).
• LA has given up at least 230 passing yards to every quarterback they’ve faced this season except for last week against Lamar Jackson, who ran for nearly 40 yards.

Zappe played in four games last year (two starts) and threw for 99, 185, 188 and 309 yards. He has shown the ability to get near 200 yards even when he came off the bench. Zappe averaged 8.5 yards per attempt during those games.

His 2023 numbers haven’t been as good in limited backup duty, as he hasn’t hit 60 yards, but the circumstances are different, and he will be entering this game with a full week preparing to start. 

More than anything, the matchup against Los Angeles is the reason for optimism here. Star pass rusher Joey Bosa was injured last week and was placed on IR, so one of the few bright spots for this defense will miss the game.

Confidence Rating: 3 out of 5 - I’m fairly confident here considering the players at hand. The Chargers let everyone join the party in the passing game. I totally understand anyone who can’t stomach the thought of counting on Zappe with real money on the line, though.

Running Back

Devin Singletary, Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos: OVER 55.5 rushing yards

Much like Zappe, Singletary is here because of the matchup. Denver has allowed the most rushing yards (total and per game), fantasy points per game, and yards per rush attempt to running backs. Their numbers over the last three weeks are essentially the same as the season-long numbers. The Broncos simply don’t stop the run.

Singletary dominated the touches in Weeks 9-11 with Dameon Pierce out, which isn’t surprising, but he also saw the field much more often than Pierce when the latter returned in Week 12: Singletary played 49 snaps to Pierce’s 11.

The rushing production wasn’t there, but the Texans were facing one of the best run defenses in the league in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Neither player ran the ball more than six times, but Singletary also caught six passes, showing much more involvement in the game plan than Pierce.

Pierce might work his way back into more snaps, but Singletary has been a better player this season. Houston has more reason to keep him on the field with Pierce as the complimentary back.

Confidence Rating: 3 out of 5 – The doubt here is about the split in touches, not the ability or matchup. Denver has improved its pass defense, but they continue to be gashed on the ground. I see Singeltary easily reaching the 56 yards needed, but the possibility that he could split touches holds me back from being more confident here.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders: OVER 104.5 receiving yards

Hill has surpassed 105 yards in six of 11 games and had 102 yards in a seventh. We don’t need to go over his exploits: Hill is one of the most explosive receivers of this generation. (I’ve been calling him the Barry Sanders of receivers).

Washington has been horrible against the pass, allowing the third-most passing yards per game and second-most yards per attempt. They have given up the most total receiving yards to wide receivers and the second-most fantasy points per game to the position.

The only thing that could get in the way is Hill’s injury status. He has been dealing with nagging injuries but hasn’t missed a game; things could catch up to him at any time. Missing a large portion of the game is more of a possibility than it usually would be.

Confidence Rating: 4 out of 5 – The only thing holding me back from full confidence is the injury concern. I think he will play the whole game, but the Dolphins could also blow out Washington, leading to Hill sitting. He seems intent on getting 2,000 yards, though, and I trust him against this weak pass defense.

Tight End

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals: OVER 41.5 receiving yards

Engram has reached 41 receiving yards eight times in 11 games, though just once in the past three weeks. His slow games in Weeks 10 and 11 were against the 49ers and Titans, who have allowed the fourth- and sixth-least receiving yards to tight ends, respectively.

The Bengals aren’t in the same league against the position: Cincinnati has allowed the second-most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2023. Pittsburgh's Pat Freiermuth had only topped seven yards in a game once this season before going off for 120 last week against Cincinnati. Cinci has also allowed the seventh-most total passing yards per game and the most yards per attempt in the league.

Engram has been remarkably consistent while never reaching the heights of the top tight ends. He has had at least four receptions in every game and five catches in all but three games. Engram has finished with between 41 and 88 receiving yards in eight games, never topping that mark. He also hasn’t scored a touchdown all season.

Confidence Rating: 5 out of 5 – This feels like one of the best bets I’ve seen this week. Engram has produced all year and seems likely to continue against a team that can’t stop the pass game or his position. I also feel very confident about Engram over 4.5 receptions.