Fantasy Football Playoffs: Who Can You Trust on the Kansas City Chiefs? Should You Be Starting Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Others?

The Chiefs feel like the Golden State Warriors. The regular season matters, but it doesn’t really matter THAT much. The top seed in the NFL is much more important than the NBA because of the first-round bye, but seeding otherwise seems to matter less than matchups.

Steph Curry will be there to do his thing; Patrick Mahomes will be there to do his thing. The supporting cast is often the object of attention and takes a decent amount of blame for team shortcomings. This year, it’s been the Kansas City receivers and their drop problems.

As the fantasy playoffs have arrived and the real playoffs are around the corner, let’s take stock of the Kansas City Chiefs from a fantasy perspective. I will focus on this season, but a few players warrant a peek at 2024 also.

All fantasy points and rankings are from Fantasy Pros. Let’s start at the top with the player who drives the Chiefs’ offense. I’ll keep it short at the beginning, as there is plenty to expand on further down.

 

Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback

Total Fantasy Points (QB Rank): 264.5 (6th)

Average Fantasy Points (QB Rank): 18.9 (9th)

Mahomes was drafted as the top quarterback in fantasy on average and a top-three QB in virtually every league. By that standard, this season has been a failure. Instead of a star, he’s been a good weekly player, finishing as a top-10 player at his position only five times.

It doesn’t matter right now, as you’re starting Mahomes every week. His upside is too high unless you lucked into a second great quarterback along the journey of the season. 

 

Travis Kelce, Tight End

Total Fantasy Points (TE Rank): Standard 120.4 (3rd); PPR 205.4 (2nd)

Average Fantasy Points (TE Rank): Standard 9.3 (2nd); PPR 15.8 (1st)

Kelce is still near the top of tight ends in all formats, but he isn’t dominating the way he has in years past. You’re starting him every week, so there isn’t a conversation for this season, but Kelce won’t be a first-round pick again next year in fantasy. He will be a second-round player at best and maybe fall to the third.

 

Isiah Pacheco, Running Back

Total Fantasy Points (RB Rank): Standard 140.8 (18th); PPR 173.8 (16th)

Average Fantasy Points (RB Rank): Standard 11.7 (16th); PPR 14.5 (13th)

Pacheco missed the last two games with a shoulder injury (for which he had surgery) but is slated to return in Week 16. Pacheco has been close to a weekly starter and finished among the top 15 running backs in six of his 12 weeks in both scoring formats.

There aren’t many players who get the ball as consistently as Pacheco, who has had double-digit touches in each game he’s played and at least 15 touches in nine games. He was a weekly staple of the offense during the first 12 weeks.

It’s unknown how much he will be used in his return from injury, though, so Pacheco owners will have to weigh him against the rest of their roster. He’s not a safe option this week the way he has been in many others. With the fantasy playoffs on the line, starting a player who ends up with five carries is a catastrophe. Monitor his progress leading up to game time in Week 16.

Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire get chances, but there isn’t enough consistent work for either player to trust in your lineup. Edwards-Helaire carried the ball 15 times in the Week 3 blowout of Chicago, but neither player touched the ball more than seven times in any game with Pacheco active.

If you are terribly desperate in a deep league, both guys could be considered as flex players with the hope of scoring a touchdown, but hopefully you have a better plan than that at this point in the season.

 

The Wide Receivers

This is where things get a little more interesting. There weren’t a lot of high hopes for any KC receiver before the season; they were seen as WR3 types at best. I was higher on a few guys (Kadarius Toney, in particular) for the simple fact that they got to play with Mahomes.

The fantasy community was right, though, and I was wrong: none of the Chiefs’ receivers have been able to be counted on in fantasy until a rookie stepped up over the last handful of games. In fact, he is the only wide receiver on this team that can be counted on for any type of consistency.

Rashee Rice

Kelce leads the team in targets, receptions, and yards by a decent amount, but Rice is second in each category. He is further ahead of third place in each category than he is behind Kelce. Rice also leads the team with seven touchdown receptions.

Rice is 26th among receivers in total standard points and 24th in PPR; he is a legit WR3 with upside, especially the previous month. Over the last four games, Rice has had at least seven catches and 64 yards in every game while scoring three touchdowns. He hit 91 and 107 yards in two of those games.

Going into next season, Rice will probably be drafted as a top 20 fantasy receiver or close to it. Depending on other moves the team makes for pass catchers, Rice might be a highly sought-after commodity next preseason.

Skyy Moore

A second-year player, Moore was expected to have a breakout season in his second year with Mahomes. His stats right now are almost identical to 2022, and that’s not a good thing. Moore had 70 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 but has otherwise failed to top 42 yards in any other game and hasn’t scored another touchdown.

Kadarius Toney

They keep giving him chances. I keep giving him chances. Because the Chiefs want to get Toney the ball, I hold out hope that he can become a fantasy contributor. That just hasn’t been the case, though. Toney has only 169 receiving yards (on a horrendous 6.2 yards per reception) and has chipped in 31 rushing yards at a 2.8 yards-per-carry clip.

Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman

Watson is third on the team in receiving yards, but he has caught less than two passes per game. He shows up randomly some weeks with OK performances, but Watson hasn’t been nearly consistent enough to be considered in a fantasy lineup.

Valdes-Scantling has nearly the same stats as Watson but with just one touchdown to Watson’s two. Hardman has been seldom used since returning from the Jets.

The last five receivers listed aren’t anywhere near fantasy relevancy despite playing with the best quarterback in football. For most of the season, I said those guys were worth considering for a WR3 spot because of the upside, but that hasn’t materialized. Look elsewhere for a receiver except for Rice.

 

Advice for Chiefs’ Fantasy Owners

Mahomes and Kelce are weekly starters. They also have great matchups against the Raiders, Colts, and Chargers to finish the season. Vegas is tough-ish on paper, but don’t overthink it: Get these guys in your lineup every week.

The matchups line up well for Pacheco also. The only thing that could undercut his value is if the team limits his workload upon his return from surgery. He is likely to be in the gameplan while the game is competitive but will surely be protected when possible.

The other backs are hit-and-miss with usage and only should be considered as flex players if you are in a dire situation. McKinnon and Edwards-Helaire will each touch the ball at least a few times, but skip them unless Pacheco goes down again (in which case Edwards-Helaire got the most work).

Rice is a weekly WR3 but has WR2 upside, especially with the good matchups. He is a player to consider each week along with the rest of your roster, and I’m comfortable with Rice in my lineup each of the three remaining weeks of the season.

Usually, I would say these matchups mean the other receivers could be considered, but I’m not trusting any of them at such an important time of the season. Even as a second flex or bottom-level receiver, no WR on Kansas City (outside of Rice) should be near your fantasy lineup.