Wild Card Weekend Quarterback Start/Sit: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott and More

Quarterback is the most important position in real football, but some fantasy owners tend to overlook top passers and instead play matchups.

Let’s look at the QBs active on Wild Card weekend and who can expect a big performance for fantasy and DFS players.

Passing yards allowed per game and per attempt are from Team Rankings. Fantasy points allowed and player projections are from FantasySP. Players are listed in the order I have them ranked, and the full list is at the bottom of the page.

 

Start

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Projected Fantasy Points: 26

Opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 227.1 (17th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.7 (21st)

Allen was the top fantasy quarterback this season (according to Fantasy Pros, which will be referenced a lot for player fantasy totals/rankings). His passing stats were close to the same as last season, but Allen got a huge boost by tying Jalen Hurts for the QB lead with 15 rushing touchdowns; no other passer ran for more than six.

The Steelers are a below-average team against the pass. This team is overmatched in this one.

We’ve seen Allen’s carelessness with the ball, as evidenced by 18 interceptions (second behind Sam Howell’s 21) and four lost fumbles. The good often overcomes the bad, though, and Allen is the top fantasy quarterback this week.

 

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Fantasy Points: 25

Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 248.9 (29th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.9 (25th)

Even with the rushing touchdowns, Hurts didn’t live up to last season’s MVP level of play despite totaling more completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns than last season (and over twice as many interceptions).

Hurts was second in quarterback fantasy scoring. The way he runs the ball, tush push and all, gives Hurts a solid baseline every week.

The Buccaneers struggle mightily against the pass. They were a bottom-eight fantasy defense against quarterbacks by the measures of both DraftKings and FanDuel. Hurts will continue doing his thing against Tampa.

 

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Projected Fantasy Points: 24

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 206.8 (9th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.7 (20th)

Prescott tied or set a new career high in completions, completion percentage, touchdowns and quarterback rating. It was his second-highest yardage total and QBR in a season; Dak finished third among fantasy QBs.

Ceedee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson have been a solid pass-catching group, with Lamb threatening for title of best receiver in the game. Green Bay is middling against the pass, and this will be more about the Cowboys' offensive attack.

 

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Projected Fantasy Points: 21

Opponent: Detroit Lions

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 247.4 (27th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 7.2 (30th)

This game is likely to depend on LA’s passing game: Detroit allowed the second-least rushing yards per game and third least per attempt. The numbers above show that the Lions can instead be beaten through the air.

Stafford played 15 games and was QB15, a perfectly reasonable performance. He didn’t put in a top-10 fantasy performance until Week 12, but five of his last six weeks saw Stafford in the top 12 (four of them top 10).

The Rams will throw the ball and benefit from playing indoors. I like Stafford to finish among the top five quarterbacks this week.

 

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Fantasy Points: 23

Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 252.7 (31st)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.6 (16th)

Philly hasn't been able to stop the pass or get off the field on third down. It's a big fall from last year's unit.

Tampa Bay can take advantage of this weakness: Mayfield set career highs in completions, completion percentage, yards, and touchdowns. Mike Evans topped 1,000 yards for the 10th straight year (1,255) and tied for the league lead with 13 touchdowns. Chris Godwin had 83 receptions for 1,024 yards.

The Bucs have a talented offense and a good matchup. Mayfield has a chance to put up big numbers and pull off an upset.

 

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Fantasy Points: 25

Opponent: Miami Dolphins

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 221.2 (15th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.6 (18th)

This season, Mahomes totaled his second-least passing yards and touchdowns in a season and threw a career-high 14 interceptions. We know a lot of the struggles are related to his wide receivers, as they were among the league leaders in drops.

These teams met in Germany in Week 9, and Mahomes went 20-30 for 185 yards. It was his second-lowest total in both categories of any game this season.

Miami’s lead pass rushers, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, both suffered season-ending injuries within the last few months and others have been in and out of the lineup. A banged-up defense on the road is unlikely to upset Kansas City, but Mahomes is likely to be closer to the middle than the top.

 

Tough Calls

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Projected Fantasy Points: 22

Opponent: Los Angeles Rams

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 231.1 (20th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.5 (13th)

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell wrote an article about the biggest weakness for each contender, and Detroit’s flaw was “beating pressure.” Goff has the third best QBR among all quarterbacks when unpressured but falls to 26th when harassed. Goff falls off worse when facing pressure than any other QB in the league.

A few related notes:

• By ESPN’s win rate metrics, Detroit is 13th in pass block win rate and the Rams are 14th in pass rush win rate
• Goff at home: 70.1% completion, 8.1 yards per attempt, 19 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 107.9 quarterback rating
• Goff on the road: 64.8% completion, 7.1 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, six interceptions, and an 89.4 quarterback rating

Detroit's success may be tied to protecting Goff. With the game at home, where Goff is SO much better, I see him coming out on the positive side. It’s unlikely to be a huge performance, but Goff should be serviceable this week.

 

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Projected Fantasy Points: 19

Opponent: Cleveland Browns

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 164.7 (1st)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 5.2 (2nd)

Like Goff, Stroud played much better at home, completing 65.5% of his passes at 8.9 yards per attempt for 17 touchdowns and four interceptions at Houston. Those numbers fell to 62%, 7 yards, six touchdowns and one interception on the road.

Stroud has upside, but this is a risky play given the defense on the other side. The game taking place in Texas is huge, but Stroud is unlikely to put up a huge performance. He is a middling option this week with downside.

 

Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns

Projected Fantasy Points: 21

Opponent: Houston Texans

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 234.1 (23rd)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 7.0 (27th)

Flacco went over 300 yards in four of his five games, and he threw for 254 in the fifth. While he racked up yards, Flacco also threw the ball over 40 times in four of those games. He was only uber-efficient in Week 17 against the hapless Jets.

Against this same Houston team in Week 16, Flacco threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns. Amari Cooper caught 11 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns. 

Houston’s pass defense is worse than league average, but they were missing rookie pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. when these teams played. I’m skeptical of Flacco, especially if the volume isn’t there, and I don’t trust him to continue his great production.

 

Sit

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Projected Fantasy Points: 18

Opponent: Dallas Cowboys

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 187.4 (5th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.3 (9th)

While he was up and down throughout the season, Love was a top-10 fantasy QB in five of his last eight games. He threw for at least 250 yards seven times during that span and threw multiple touchdowns in nine of 12 games after the bye.

The Dallas defense is no joke, though. They gave up the fifth-least points per game and are above-average in sacks, interceptions, and fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. I don’t trust Love in this matchup; this is among the toughest opponents he has faced.

 

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Projected Fantasy Points: 17

Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 176.5 (4th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 5.4 (3rd)

Tua was a top-10 quarterback just five weeks and outside the top 20 seven times. Tyreek Hill has dealt with multiple injuries. Jaylen Waddle suffered a high ankle sprain a few weeks back, De’von Achane missed time earlier in the season, and Raheem Mostert was out the last two weeks: Tua didn’t get great support.

KC is one of the best pass defenses in the league; on top of their great rankings, they didn’t allow a 300-yard passer all season. Tua threw for just 193 yards and a touchdown when the teams played in Germany. I’m not expecting much better and see Tua as a must-sit player.

 

Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Fantasy Points: 10

Opponent: Buffalo Bills

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 196.6 (7th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.1 (6th)

Rudolph’s two big performances were against weak pass defenses in Cincinnati and Seattle. Against the Baltimore backups last week, Rudolph completed 18 of 20 passes but only produced 152 yards. That included a 71-yard touchdown that was mostly run after the catch.

Buffalo’s defense has weathered injuries and remained a top-line unit. We’ve seen a lot of evidence that Rudolph isn’t an NFL-level quarterback; counting on him to perform might be the worst call of the week.

 

Full Wild Card Weekend Quarterback Rankings

1. Josh Allen, Buf

2. Jalen Hurts, Phi

3. Dak Prescott, Dal

4. Matthew Stafford, LAR

5. Baker Mayfield, TB

6. Patrick Mahomes, KC

7. Jared Goff, Det

8. C.J. Stroud, Hou

9. Joe Flacco, Cle

10. Jordan Love, GB

11. Tua Tagovailoa, Mia

12. Mason Rudolph, Pit